812 Bluffview Dr · Cleburne, TX 76031

$234,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,804 sqft · Land · 183 Days on market

Built 2025 5,663 sqft lot $130/sqft · 377% above area $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $368 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 409 students, 91% FRL); Lowell Smith Jr Middle (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 929 students, 68% FRL); Cleburne H S (math 46% / reading 38%, grade F, #730 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 1,976 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 56% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $206,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $49,303
• List price: $234,990
• Delta: 376.62%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-14,719
• Equity at exit: $35,038

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $17,116
• Equity at exit: $20,318

Cash invested: $65,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,341 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $368

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,875

Max offer price $234,990

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $434	+0% $368	+5% $301	+10% $235
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $275	+0% $368	+5% $460	+10% $552
Rate	-1.0pp $486	-0.5pp $427	base $368	+0.5pp $307	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,748
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Bluffview Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,245	$1.02	45d	1	0.07mi
872 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.10mi
853 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,490	$0.96	4d	1	0.11mi
853 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,695	$1.04	26d	1	0.11mi
516 Quail Meadows Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	1804	$2,400	$1.33	6d	1	0.17mi
544 Quail Meadows Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,100	$1.16	26d	1	0.19mi
1601 Annabelle St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,280	$1.29	0d	1	0.84mi
119 Kylie St Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1763	$2,290	$1.30	0d	1	0.93mi
114 Scurlock Ave Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1457	$1,770	$1.21	45d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $234,990 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $234,990 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $234,990 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $234,990 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $234,990 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $234,990 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $234,990 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $234,990 Active 174 DOM
9. 2026-03-25
   price $234,990 1004-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

   MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

10. 2026-03-11
    price $239,990 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

11. 2026-03-06
    price $252,990 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

12. 2026-03-04
    price $277,990 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

13. 2026-02-27
    price $276,490 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

14. 2026-02-11
    price $277,990 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

15. 2026-01-15
    price $279,990 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

16. 2025-12-08
    listed $281,100 Active 1004-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1004 chars)

    MLS# 21128448 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 1804-2 B1 - Madison The Madison Plan from our Liberty Series combines style and functionality in a layout that maximizes space for your family’s needs. This 2-story home features 5 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 1,804 square feet of well-designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll find a main-level bedroom and a full bathroom, offering a convenient option for guests or a home office. Beyond that, the home opens up to a bright and airy living area, where the family room, dining area, and open kitchen with a central island come together seamlessly to create a welcoming space for entertaining and everyday living. Stairs located in the family room lead to the upper level. Upstairs, the primary suite serves as a private retreat, complete with an en suite bathroom. The upper level also includes three additional bedrooms, another full bathroom, and a conveniently located laundry room to simplify daily tasks.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,300 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,965/yr (+$247/mo · 222.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,163
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,247
• − Management: −$2,247
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $604
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$145
• After-tax cash flow: $4,266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleburne, TX
• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 18,697

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-16.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $234,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $239,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $252,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $277,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $276,490 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $277,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $281,100 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.