607 Nobles Ave · Midland, TX 79701

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,754 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1950 7,797 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fix & Hold or Fllip I 5BDR Potential with Income Producing Apartment I Endless opportunities with this property! Apartment is metered separately. Four bedroom 2 baths, 2 living areas in the main house. Sequestered primary bedroom with its own study. 2 Living Areas! Also, full apartment in back with living area, kitchen, bedroom and bath. This would make a great investment. AS IS sale.

Key facts

• Separate metering
• 7,797 sq ft lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• SEQUESTERED PRIMARY BEDROOM
• FULL APARTMENT IN BACK
• SEPARATE METERING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Crestlawn subdivision
• Financial info: Annual tax listed

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot approximately 0.179 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Wood-burning fireplace in den

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $249k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sam Houston Collegiate Preparatory El (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 469 students, 64% FRL, charter); San Jacinto J H (math 26% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 829 students, 54% FRL); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 114 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,902/mo this rent would consume 61% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 938% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.42%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-4,549
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $25,104
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79701

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,629/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,062

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $805	-5% $734	+0% $664	+5% $593	+10% $523
Rent	-10% $434	-5% $549	+0% $664	+5% $778	+10% $893
Rate	-1.0pp $789	-0.5pp $727	base $664	+0.5pp $599	+1.0pp $533

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Lawson Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2065	$2,450	$1.19	45d	1	0.63mi
1509 Bedford Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	3733	$4,500	$1.21	45d	1	0.70mi
1500 N Terrell St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2027	$2,600	$1.28	15d	1	0.77mi
806 Neely Ave Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2767	$3,900	$1.41	45d	1	0.84mi
1902 N I St Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,400	$1.10	45d	1	0.90mi
1603 N L St Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2230	$3,200	$1.43	45d	1	0.96mi
2800 N Pecos St Unit B Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2148	$2,100	$0.98	22d	1	1.03mi
2800 N Pecos St Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	2148	$2,100	$0.98	22d	1	1.03mi
1413 Ventura Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,895	$1.21	45d	1	1.11mi
2204 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$3,000	$1.45	45d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   remarks 390-char remark
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $249,000 Active
20. 1958-08-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,629 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,557 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,927/yr (+$161/mo · 73.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$2,629
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,786
• − Management: −$2,786
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $4,182
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,004
• After-tax cash flow: $6,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,131
• Household income: $57,346
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 938.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 28% White 27% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 57%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Ukrainian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.32%
• Current HPI: 234.6111
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.74%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $249,000 PBBOR
• 1958-08-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,629 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.