5918 Consider Trail Von · Somerset, TX 78073

$244,999

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,802 sqft · SingleFamily · 18 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $238k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Luxe owner's suite
• Full bathroom
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• LUXE OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5918 Consider Trail Von, Ormy, TX 78073; Listing provided by Zillow (information deemed reliable but not guaranteed)
• Financial info: List price $249,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (total 2 parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home, Bergen plan; Active listing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Bergen plan); Living area approximately 1,802

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#639 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Somerset ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #417 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 324 active listings in the ZIP; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,586 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $237,864
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12010 Listening Pass	0.00mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-0%)	1mo	$248,999	$139	98
6003 Skipping Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,897 (+5%)	1mo	$232,999	$123	88
6031 Skipping Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (-6%)	1mo	$222,999	$132	87
6007 Skipping Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (-6%)	2mo	$206,999	$122	86
12022 Pressing Pass	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,692 (-6%)	2mo	$215,999	$128	86
12918 Bone Dry Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,676 (-7%)	4mo	$219,506	$131	83
12018 Listening Pass	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-8%)	1mo	$234,999	$142	77
12006 Listening Pass	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-8%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	77
12227 Kneeling Path	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	3mo	$197,999	$124	75
12203 Kneeling Path	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-11%)	4mo	$219,999	$137	74
55 N Cedar Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,600 (-11%)	15mo	$314,900	$197	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $9,950
• Equity at exit: $104,701

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.91×
• Total profit: $62,247
• Equity at exit: $157,232

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78073

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 324
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,856 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-227

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $212,151

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,999 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,999 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,999 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,999 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $244,999 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,999 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $247,999 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $247,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,999 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,999 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,999 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 374-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $249,999 Active 6 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥109°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,782
• − Management: −$1,782
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,044
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,691
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,034/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,712
• Composite: 34.01/100
• National rank: #5315
• State rank: #417 of 826 in TX

Livability — Somerset

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #12187

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,510

Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 81% Two or more races 33% White 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Current HPI: 289.1266
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B