14192 Campfire Cir · Log Cabin, TX 75148

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Manufactured · 32 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 2025 home located just minutes from Cedar Creek Lake! The property features 1,200 square feet with 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and 2 living areas, each with its own kitchen. The home offers a lockable interior door separating the two living spaces, creating flexibility for multi-generational living, guest accommodations, or rental potential. Located on a shaded lot with a vacant lot on the left side available for purchase at $15,000, this property provides both privacy and opportunity. Neighborhood amenities include a boat ramp, dock, and park with a playground, perfect for lake-life living and outdoor gatherings. This home is permanently tied to the ground, meeting loan eligibi

Key facts

• Dock
• Park with playground
• Vacant lot available

Tags

• MULTI-GENERATIONAL LIVING
• VACANT LOT AVAILABLE
• BOAT RAMP
• DOCK
• PARK WITH PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Single Family Residence; Lot size under 0.5 acre with many trees; Will not subdivide; Directions provided for property access
• Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA and other loan types; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage listed; Property listed by builder (special listing condition)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Asphalt parking surfaces; No carport or covered parking spaces listed
• Security: No smart home features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Located in a Municipal Utility District
• Home design: Single-family residence (residential); Attached property; Facing/entry level: One level; Subdivision: Log Cabin Estates
• Construction: Built in 2025; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Many trees on the lot; Other exterior features; Fencing: Other

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Other kitchen features
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1, approx. 14 x 18)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One-level layout; Accessible entrance; Two living areas; Two dining areas; Other interior features
• Laundry & utility: Appliances may include additional/other items

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 0.9% in Log Cabin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 38/100 on livability (#1,626 in TX) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Eustace ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #455 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eustace Pri (497 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: 225 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.18%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $18,420
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $75,332
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75148

• Home prices YoY: -27.6%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5320 Loma Vis Malakoff, TX	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	44d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $170,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2026-04-02
    historical
18. 2026-01-12
    listed $170,000 Active
19. 2025-12-10
    status Active
20. 2025-10-14
    listed $170,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $6,324
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,518
• After-tax cash flow: $7,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2025 manufactured home is in excellent condition with a fresh paint job and modern finishes. It offers a great opportunity for both resale and rental due to its location and amenities.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment.
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — Improves outdoor living space and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal and functionality.
• Rental Adding a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage for rental properties, increasing tenant satisfaction and rental income.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and creates a more inviting environment. ↑
• Both Adding a small patio or deck — Improves outdoor living space and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Resale Upgrading appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Rental Adding a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage for rental properties, increasing tenant satisfaction and rental income. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eustace ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818720
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $42,425
• Composite: 32.48/100
• National rank: #5711
• State rank: #455 of 826 in TX

Livability — Log Cabin

• Score: 38/100
• State rank: #1626
• US rank: #27499

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Log Cabin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,944

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.76%
• Current HPI: 217.1629
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $170,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-10 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2025-10-14 Listed $170,000 HCBOR