6513 Philbrook Rd · Meadowbrook, VA 23234

$289,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,520 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1974 10,062 sqft lot Est $325k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just listed, for the first time in nearly 40 years! This 3 bedroom one and half bath features fresh paint and new kitchen cabinets. Large fenced rear yard offers ample room for back yard entertaining. Conveniently located near Hopkins Road, with easy access to Routes 1 and 10 and I-95 for commuting throughout the greater Richmond region. Minutes from Beulah Recreation Center, Bensley Park, and Pocahontas State Park.

Key facts

• New kitchen cabinets
• Fenced rear yard
• 0.23 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED REAR YARD
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• EASY ACCESS TO ROUTES 1 AND 10
• MINUTES FROM BENSLEY PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-680/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#161 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $289k implies a 433% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,923 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $325,280
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6513 Philbrook Rd	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,520 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$197	99
3917 Beulah Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,520 (0%)	3mo	$342,475	$225	81
4001 Pretty Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,604 (+6%)	2mo	$331,000	$206	75
6212 Philbrook Rd	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,544 (+2%)	11mo	$315,000	$204	74
7035 Conifer Rd	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,533 (+1%)	1mo	$334,900	$218	72
6425 Brookshire Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,352 (-11%)	10mo	$290,000	$214	69
6710 Mason Valley Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+1%)	5mo	$330,000	$214	63
6536 Creekrun Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+3%)	1mo	$332,500	$212	61
4712 Taylor Brook Ln	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,484 (-2%)	6mo	$324,725	$219	54
4007 Lawnwood Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+14%)	6mo	$360,000	$209	51
6013 Daleshire Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,725 (+14%)	3mo	$330,000	$191	49
6705 Mason Valley Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-12%)	8mo	$300,000	$223	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-52,890
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-60,550
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23234

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$182 /mo · $2,181/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-57

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,301

Max offer price $278,993

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3907 Harvette Dr North Chesterfield, VA	4.0	2.5	1700	$2,600	$1.53	17d	1	0.38mi
4502 Cinderwood Dr North Chesterfield, VA	3.0	2.0	1540	$2,200	$1.43	17d	1	0.59mi
3501 Meadowdale Blvd North Chesterfield, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	910	$2,060	$2.26	2d	17	0.68mi
4708 Leadenhall Dr North Chesterfield, VA	2.0	1.5	1102	$1,851	$1.68	11d	1	0.83mi
8109 Concho Rd Richmond, VA	3.0	2.0	1855	$2,700	$1.46	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $289,000 Active
3. 1988-03-04
   soldstatus $54,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,181 · $182/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,370 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 8.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,751
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$2,181
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$5,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,380
• After-tax cash flow: $701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Meadowbrook

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #5004

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Meadowbrook, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 46,284
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $66,619
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% Hispanic / Latino 30% White 18% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.50%
• Current HPI: 317.6006
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.93%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+433.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $289,000 CVRMLS
• 1988-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $54,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,181 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.