909 Arncliffe Rd · Essex, MD 21221

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1954 1,600 sqft lot Est $205k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained and move-in ready 3BR/1BA brick Townhome located on a pristinely manicured lot in the quiet neighborhood of Middlesex. Make your way through the gated front yard past a lush green lawn on the way to the front porch of your forever home. Step inside to a home filled with natural light, hardwood floors, and an open main floor plan. The main floor offers a large living room, spacious dining room, and kitchen. The dining room is separated from the kitchen by a half wall ideal when entertaining. The kitchen features plenty of cabinets with open shelving, stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and a deep stainless sink. On the second floor are two sizable secondar

Key facts

• Lush green lawn
• Gated front yard
• Natural light

Tags

• GATED FRONT YARD
• LUSH GREEN LAWN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• OPEN MAIN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Brick construction; Block foundation; Shingle/composite roof
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (all upper levels)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Partially finished basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $270 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.9% in Essex — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Middlesex Elementary (math 8% / reading 8%, grade F, #681 of 860 statewide, top 81%, 373 students, 74% FRL); Stemmers Run Middle (math 5% / reading 28%, grade F, #174 of 225 statewide, top 81%, 838 students, 68% FRL); Kenwood High (math 10% / reading 43%, grade F, #161 of 222 statewide, top 72%, 1,908 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 39% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $146k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.79%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,776
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Torner Rd	0.21mi	3/1.0	1,144 (0%)	3mo	$207,000	$181	88
732 Arncliffe Rd	0.19mi	3/1.0	1,169 (+2%)	2mo	$200,000	$171	86
1100 N Marlyn Ave	0.23mi	3/1.5	1,144 (0%)	2mo	$215,000	$188	85
813 Middlesex Rd	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,144 (0%)	2mo	$257,500	$225	84
559 Welbrook Rd	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,124 (-2%)	4mo	$175,000	$156	79
606 Middlesex Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+1%)	1mo	$252,000	$219	77
1024 Middlesex	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,196 (+4%)	7mo	$247,500	$207	75
946 Middlesex Rd	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+12%)	1mo	$195,000	$152	74
647 Dunwich Way	0.25mi	3/1.5	1,024 (-10%)	2mo	$147,000	$144	67
329 Leeanne Rd	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,152 (+1%)	2mo	$206,000	$179	67
724 Middlesex	0.19mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,016 (-11%)	7mo	$170,000	$167	59
303 Leeanne Rd	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,024 (-10%)	5mo	$182,000	$178	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-19,132
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-10,057
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$257 /mo · $3,079/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,758

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $384	-5% $327	+0% $270	+5% $214	+10% $157
Rent	-10% $104	-5% $187	+0% $270	+5% $353	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $371	-0.5pp $321	base $270	+0.5pp $219	+1.0pp $166

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	45d	1	0.08mi
421 Torner Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,050	$2.00	23d	1	0.21mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	45d	1	0.22mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	45d	1	0.23mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	7d	1	0.23mi
201 Middleway Rd Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,571	$2.09	4d	24	0.59mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	45d	1	0.66mi
47 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,900	$1.86	25d	1	0.83mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	45d	1	0.83mi
4 Essex Ave Unit A Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	800	$1,250	$1.56	25d	1	0.85mi
8908 Golden Tree Ln Essex, MD	4.0	1.5	1466	$3,000	$2.05	45d	1	0.86mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	45d	1	0.90mi
42 Holcumb Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1452	$2,200	$1.52	45d	1	0.91mi
120 Kingston Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,950	$1.90	25d	1	0.95mi
1516 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1144	$2,100	$1.84	23d	1	0.97mi
1513 Aldeney Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1324	$2,295	$1.73	25d	1	0.98mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	12d	1	1.00mi
1542 Becklow Ave Middle River, MD	4.0	2.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	0d	1	1.01mi
303 Endsleigh Ave Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,950	$1.70	23d	1	1.01mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	45d	1	1.09mi
19 Mooring Ct Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1439	$1,900	$1.32	0d	1	1.12mi
433 Grovethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1024	$2,000	$1.95	23d	1	1.14mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	12d	1	1.15mi
22 Nakota Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1194	$2,000	$1.68	45d	1	1.21mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	25d	1	1.22mi
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,095	$1.43	0d	1	1.22mi
2 Chelmsford Ct Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1122	$2,100	$1.87	4d	1	1.22mi
303 Holly Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,510	$2.04	0d	10	1.30mi
2242 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1024	$2,195	$2.14	45d	1	1.30mi
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	25d	1	1.37mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	7d	1	1.40mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	7d	1	1.43mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	5d	1	1.43mi
1409 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1008	$1,950	$1.93	7d	1	1.45mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	500	$1,241	$2.48	4d	49	1.47mi
846 Brunswick Rd Essex, MD	2.0	1.0	500	$1,272	$2.54	45d	42	1.47mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $200,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $200,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,079 · $257/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,079
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $69
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$17
• After-tax cash flow: $3,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+440.5% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-05 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-27 Listed $219,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $146,000 Public Records
• 2020-07-31 Sold (MLS) $146,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-26 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-06-12 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-30 Listed $149,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2020-05-30 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-30 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MRIS
• 2007-03-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-11-22 Listed $167,000 MRIS
• 2005-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2005-10-28 Sold (MLS) $135,000 MRIS
• 2005-09-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-09-15 Listed $135,000 MRIS
• 1988-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,079 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.