9060 County Road 309 · Jewett, TX 75831

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 180 Days on market

Built 2013 2.00 ac lot ↓ 37% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated 3 bedroom (could be 4), 2 full bath home on 2 acres in the Weeden Addition. Renovated from 2020–2022 with new laminate flooring, fresh texture and paint, new trim and fixtures, shiplap accents, a cedar beam, and a redone brick fireplace. Both bathrooms feature modern black tile showers. Exterior upgrades include new Hardie siding, fresh paint, a tin roof, and a concrete back porch. A/C is less than 2 years old. Move-in ready with a clean, modern farmhouse feel

Key facts

• Tin roof
• New hardie siding
• 2 acres

Tags

• 2 ACRES
• RENOVATED FROM 2020 TO 2022
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• MODERN BLACK TILE SHOWERS
• NEW HARDIE SIDING
• TIN ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,223 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: housing D, crime F, amenities F.
• Buffalo ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #246 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buffalo H S (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C, #333 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 316 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($933 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $118,563 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.53%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $290,640
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9060 County Road 309	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$135,000	$80	99
9542 County Road 309	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+10%)	13mo	$319,900	$173	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.28% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.92×
• Total profit: $34,610
• Equity at exit: $70,633

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $99,511
• Equity at exit: $117,304

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75831

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,186 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $359/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,005

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $181	+0% $143	+5% $104	+10% $66
Rent	-10% $49	-5% $96	+0% $143	+5% $189	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $211	-0.5pp $177	base $143	+0.5pp $108	+1.0pp $72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-31
   price $135,000
4. 2026-03-15
   price $145,000
5. 2026-03-15
   price $135,000
6. 2026-03-06
   price $158,000
7. 2026-02-06
   price $165,000
8. 2026-01-07
   price $175,000
9. 2025-12-16
   price $185,000
10. 2025-11-11
    price $198,000
11. 2025-11-07
    listed $215,000 Active
12. 2021-07-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $359 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,470 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,112/yr (+$176/mo · 589.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$359
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable loss: −$572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $1,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811990
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,590
• Composite: 39.58/100
• National rank: #3929
• State rank: #246 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jewett

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1223
• US rank: #21348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,769

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,271 people
• By 2030: 17,271 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 17,151 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 16,863 · -2.4%
• By 2075: 16,304 · -5.6%
• By 2100: 13,968 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 17% Black 15% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Iranian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+76.7) · D 11.4% · R 88.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.8pp toward R · 2008: -58.9pp · 2024: -76.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+76.7 2020: R+74.4 2016: R+74.0 2012: R+68.4 2008: R+58.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Current HPI: 222.1498
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-37.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-15 Price Changed $135,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $158,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-16 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $198,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $215,000 HARMLS
• 2021-07-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $359 · -32.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.