561 Nature Trl Unit 567, 547, 549 Nature Trai · College, AK 99709

$249,600

None bd · None ba · 1,484 sqft · Condo · 95 Days on market

Built 1997 Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unique Investment Opportunity – 3.5 Acres with 4 Dry Cabins! Less than 4 miles from UAF, this private, wooded retreat offers incredible rental income potential, Situated on two spacious lots, this property features four charming dry cabins, perfect for long-term rentals, Airbnb, or a personal getaway. Easy access for snow machining, Fat-bike riding, & all around recreational activities, whether you’re looking for an investment, a peaceful retreat, or a place to call home, this property needs to be your NextHome! Cabins Owned By AK Licensed Realtor. Sold AS-IS.

Key facts

• Two spacious lots
• 4 dry cabins
• 3.5 acres

Tags

• 3.5 ACRES
• 4 DRY CABINS
• PRIVATE WOODED RETREAT
• TWO SPACIOUS LOTS
• EASY ACCESS FOR SNOW MACHINING
• RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a condo listed at $250k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-329 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (29.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (29.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.5% in College — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#20 in AK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, commute B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Fairbanks North Star Borough School District (urban): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #10 of 21 in AK (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1 units permitted in Fairbanks North Star Borough in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairbanks North Star County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $176,667 (29.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.65%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-61,390
• Equity at exit: $37,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-80,352
• Equity at exit: $21,581

Cash invested: $69,888 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99709

• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,744/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,183

Max offer price $201,956

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-157	-5% $-243	+0% $-329	+5% $-416	+10% $-502
Rent	-10% $-469	-5% $-399	+0% $-329	+5% $-259	+10% $-190
Rate	-1.0pp $-204	-0.5pp $-266	base $-329	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,400
• Closing costs: $7,488
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,600 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,600 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,600 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,600 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,600 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,600 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,600 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,600 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,600 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,600 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,600 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,600 Active 79 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,600 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,600 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,600 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,600 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    listed $249,600 Active 583-char remark

    Show marketing remark (583 chars)

    Unique Investment Opportunity – 3.5 Acres with 4 Dry Cabins! Less than 4 miles from UAF, this private, wooded retreat offers incredible rental income potential, Situated on two spacious lots, this property features four charming dry cabins, perfect for long-term rentals, Airbnb, or a personal getaway. Easy access for snow machining, Fat-bike riding, & all around recreational activities, whether you’re looking for an investment, a peaceful retreat, or a place to call home, this property needs to be your NextHome! Cabins Owned By AK Licensed Realtor. Sold AS-IS.

18. 2025-11-27
    price $249,600
19. 2025-11-03
    price $249,700
20. 2025-10-18
    price $249,800
21. 2025-10-12
    listed $249,900 Active
22. 2025-09-22
    price $259,900
23. 2025-09-08
    price $264,500
24. 2025-09-03
    price $264,900
25. 2025-08-05
    price $267,500
26. 2025-07-15
    price $269,900
27. 2025-07-07
    price $272,400
28. 2025-06-18
    price $272,500
29. 2025-05-13
    price $274,900
30. 2025-04-03
    listed $279,900 Active
31. 2022-01-03
    soldstatus
32. 2021-10-07
    listed $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,981
• − Property taxes: −$3,744
• − Insurance: −$1,248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$7,261
• Taxable loss: −$8,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including snow removal, roof inspection, flooring replacement, painting, window repair, and HVAC maintenance. The property is currently in poor condition and would benefit from significant investment to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Snow removal — Snow covering the exterior and roof
• Major Roof inspection — Potential ice dam
• Major Flooring replacement — Worn-out flooring
• Major Painting — Worn-out paint
• Major Window repair — Visible wear and tear
• Major HVAC inspection and maintenance — No visible signs of recent maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Snow removal and roof inspection — Improves safety and appearance
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort
• Both Painting — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort
• Both Window repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort
• Both HVAC inspection and maintenance — Improves comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Snow removal · Snow covering the exterior and roof	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof inspection · Potential ice dam	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring replacement · Worn-out flooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Painting · Worn-out paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Window repair · Visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC inspection and maintenance · No visible signs of recent maintenance	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Snow removal and roof inspection — Improves safety and appearance ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both Painting — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both Window repair — Enhances interior aesthetics and comfort ↑
• Both HVAC inspection and maintenance — Improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairbanks North Star Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200600
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,697
• Composite: 35.5/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #10 of 21 in AK

Livability — College

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #9812

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living C- Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College, AK
• County: Fairbanks North Star Borough · 69,381 people
• City population: 707
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• Population (ZIP): 29,551
• Household income: $86,294
• Rent vs Own: 35.2% rent · 64.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 868.0

Population outlook (Fairbanks North Star County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,607 people
• By 2030: 102,796 · +1.2%
• By 2040: 104,748 · +3.1%
• By 2050: 107,598 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 118,829 · +16.9%
• By 2100: 127,151 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairbanks North Star

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.64%
• Current HPI: 152.0818
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fairbanks, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+51.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Listed $249,600 GFBR
• 2025-11-27 Price Changed $249,600 GFBR
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $249,700 GFBR
• 2025-10-18 Price Changed $249,800 GFBR
• 2025-10-12 Listed $249,900 GFBR
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $259,900 GFBR
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $264,500 GFBR
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $264,900 GFBR
• 2025-08-05 Price Changed $267,500 GFBR
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $269,900 GFBR
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $272,400 GFBR
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $272,500 GFBR
• 2025-05-13 Price Changed $274,900 GFBR
• 2025-04-03 Listed $279,900 GFBR
• 2022-01-03 Sold (MLS) — GFBR
• 2021-10-07 Listed $165,000 GFBR