49 Saxton Cir · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 64 Days on market

Built 1975 $125/sqft · 70% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ALL MAJOR SYSTEMS ALREADY UPDATED + FULL RENOVATION, top to bottom, inside & out! Come SEE this Beautifully renovated home (55+ Community) with MANY of the expensive big-ticket items already completed for you! Featuring meticulous updates throughout including: updated electrical AND plumbing systems, a BRAND NEW HVAC system, NEW water heater, NEW flooring, NEW dual-pane windows, fresh paint inside and out, NEW lighting, NEW ceiling fans, hardware, interior doors, and the roof recently received a newer rubberized protective coating! This all provides you with valuable peace of mind given the home's impressive long list improvements! The stunning remodeled kitchen features all-new

Key facts

• Modern hardware
• Dual-pane windows
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW INTERIOR DOORS
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• CEILING FANS
• MODERN HARDWARE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $779 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.1% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime D-, amenities F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.85%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $70,326
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: 70.49%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29 Hanover St	0.04mi	2/2.0	954 (-1%)	10mo	$87,000	$91	89
150 Sage St	0.12mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	15mo	$89,999	$94	82
114 Cambria	0.15mi	2/1.0	960 (0%)	11mo	$85,000	$89	80
142 Sage St	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,060 (+10%)	3mo	$90,000	$85	77
23 Hanover St	0.11mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	24mo	$112,000	$117	75
42 Saxton Cir	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,040 (+8%)	10mo	$126,000	$121	73
140 Sage St	0.05mi	2/2.0	910 (-5%)	19mo	$112,000	$123	73
156 Sage St	0.06mi	2/1.0	870 (-9%)	17mo	$49,000	$56	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $28,093
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.38×
• Total profit: $79,902
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $402/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $779

Break-even live

Break-even rent $902

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7434 Auburn Oaks Ct Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	790	$1,875	$2.37	23d	4	0.33mi
7434 Auburn Oaks Ct Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	890	$1,975	$2.22	3d	1	0.33mi
7445 Auburn Oaks Ct Unit K Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	929	$1,700	$1.83	21d	1	0.36mi
7445 Auburn Oaks Ct Unit K Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	929	$1,695	$1.82	43d	1	0.36mi
1000 Cirby Oaks Way Roseville, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,955	$2.79	1d	2	0.72mi
7603 Linden Ave Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.5	990	$1,900	$1.92	17d	1	0.74mi
333 Cirby Way Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	796	$2,115	$2.66	1d	4	0.87mi
425 Cirby Way Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	812	$2,274	$2.80	1d	1	0.91mi
7915 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	1015	$1,895	$1.87	21d	1	1.00mi
3 Somer Ridge Dr Roseville, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	909	$2,270	$2.50	1d	6	1.04mi
7658 Poppy Way Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,785	$1.98	14d	1	1.05mi
7658 Poppy Way Unit 7658 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,695	$1.88	3d	1	1.05mi
7827 Zenith Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1031	$1,995	$1.94	14d	1	1.10mi
7727 Mariposa Ave Unit 5 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	725	$1,795	$2.48	43d	1	1.21mi
7761 Pompei Ct Unit 7763 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,705	$1.89	23d	1	1.27mi
6413 Tupelo Dr Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,000	$2.58	1d	10	1.27mi
308 6th St Unit B Roseville, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,200	$2.75	21d	1	1.33mi
7541 Ramona Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	837	$2,295	$2.74	2d	9	1.36mi
415 5th St #2 Roseville, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,285	$1.98	16d	1	1.38mi
8237 Sunrise Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,095	$2.00	7d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $402 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $911 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$509/yr (+$42/mo · 126.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,656
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$402
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,812
• − Management: −$1,812
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $7,825
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,878
• After-tax cash flow: $7,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2011): $402 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.