6331 Lost Trl · Elfers, FL 34690

$128,750

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,104 sqft · Manufactured public records · 212 Days on market

Built 1989 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Build your dream home on this 1 acre piece of land. The property already has septic, well, and electricity running to it. The mobile home we be removed from the property. The manufactured home has no monetary value and will not be removed.

Key facts

• No cdd zone
• Private septic tank
• Generous size lot

Tags

• GENEROUS SIZE LOT
• DEEDED ACCESS
• PRIVATE SEPTIC TANK
• WELL FOR WATER SERVICE
• NO HOA
• NO CDD ZONE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is on approximately 1 acre (oversized, cleared, level lot); Lot features include proximity to golf course, marina, public transit; gravel road with private maintenance; Lot dimensions approximately 265 x 166; Zoned R1
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA; no association fees; Community street lights; Pets allowed (cats and dogs permitted)

Exterior

• Parking: Ground-level off-street parking
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Broadband/High-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Private utilities; Water available and connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; Fixer condition; Single-story; Faces south; Entry level is on one level
• Construction: Metal frame construction; Other roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a double-wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Outdoor lighting; Private mailbox; Mature landscaping with oak trees and wooded areas; Florida-friendly/native landscaping and xeriscape

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: No notable interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-60 ($-725/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.6% in Elfers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#167 in FL, #2,486 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities D-.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anclote Elementary School (math 37% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,609 of 2,144 statewide, top 77%, 420 students, 81% FRL); Paul R. Smith Middle School (math 32% / reading 38%, grade F, #416 of 571 statewide, top 74%, 994 students, 82% FRL); Anclote High School (math 28% / reading 38%, grade F, #406 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,205 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 48% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 35% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 134 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $890 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $129k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,300 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.19%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-28,860
• Equity at exit: $19,197

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-46,080
• Equity at exit: $11,132

Cash invested: $36,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34690

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$675
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,069/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $-60

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,575

Max offer price $118,084

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-24	+0% $-60	+5% $-97	+10% $-133
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-120	+0% $-60	+5% $-1	+10% $58
Rate	-1.0pp $4	-0.5pp $-28	base $-60	+0.5pp $-94	+1.0pp $-128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,188
• Closing costs: $3,862
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5906 Elkhorn Blvd Holiday, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,395	$1.24	16d	1	0.42mi
5606 Mirada Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	864	$1,550	$1.79	16d	1	0.77mi
3409 Vorden St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1075	$1,600	$1.49	25d	1	0.79mi
6165 Chesham Dr #5 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,450	$1.76	0d	1	0.82mi
6165 Chesham Dr #9 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,350	$1.64	25d	1	0.82mi
6036 Chesham Dr #5 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,275	$1.55	6d	1	0.88mi
6141 Chesham Dr #8 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	825	$1,250	$1.52	25d	1	0.89mi
7101 Columns Cir New Port Richey, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$1,329	$1.20	0d	23	1.04mi
5232 Sparrow Dr Holiday, FL	2.0	1.0	976	$1,975	$2.02	25d	1	1.06mi
2928 Stillwell Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1068	$1,550	$1.45	5d	1	1.10mi
7418 Jenner Ave New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	12d	1	1.11mi
2852 Stillwell Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	972	$1,500	$1.54	19d	1	1.11mi
3005 Wainwright Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	25d	1	1.13mi
2918 Forrestal Ct New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	888	$1,600	$1.80	25d	1	1.14mi
2644 Tottenham Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,200	$1.57	12d	1	1.36mi
3455 Monte Rio St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$1,775	$1.37	19d	1	1.37mi
5319 Drift Tide Dr New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	1142	$1,500	$1.31	11d	1	1.37mi
3511 Cambridge St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	936	$2,100	$2.24	6d	1	1.42mi
4331 Fiji Dr New Port Richey, FL	1.0–5.0	2.0–5.0	1343	$1,250	$0.93	4d	11	1.44mi
3544 Martell St New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.0	775	$1,600	$2.06	25d	1	1.45mi
6424 Spring Flower Dr #25 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	915	$1,175	$1.28	19d	1	1.46mi
6424 Spring Flower Dr #25 New Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	835	$1,175	$1.41	25d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,750 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,750 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,750 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,750 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,750 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,750 Active 203 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,750 Active 202 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,750 Active 201 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $128,750 Active 198 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,750 Active 197 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,750 Active 196 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,750 Active 195 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,750 Active 194 DOM
14. 2026-04-27
    price $128,750
15. 2026-04-01
    price $139,000
16. 2026-01-14
    price $145,500
17. 2025-11-18
    listed $150,000 Active
18. 2024-01-04
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 2023-12-27
    soldstatus $65,000 Closed 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Build your dream home on this 1 acre piece of land. The property already has septic, well, and electricity running to it. The mobile home we be removed from the property. The manufactured home has no monetary value and will not be removed.

20. 2023-11-02
    status Pending 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Build your dream home on this 1 acre piece of land. The property already has septic, well, and electricity running to it. The mobile home we be removed from the property. The manufactured home has no monetary value and will not be removed.

21. 2023-10-23
    listed $80,000 Active 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Build your dream home on this 1 acre piece of land. The property already has septic, well, and electricity running to it. The mobile home we be removed from the property. The manufactured home has no monetary value and will not be removed.

22. 2022-09-22
    status Active
23. 2022-09-06
    status Pending
24. 2022-08-15
    listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,069 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,212
• − Property taxes: −$1,069
• − Insurance: −$5,762
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$3,745
• Taxable loss: −$2,681
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$643
• After-tax cash flow: $-81/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Elfers

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #2486

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elfers, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,498
• Household income: $49,401
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 625.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -91.40%
• Current HPI: 316.5846
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.49%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+60.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $128,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $145,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-27 Sold (MLS) $65,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-23 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-15 Listed $80,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,069 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.