4882 Lancaster Dr #72 · Hayesville, OR 97305

$114,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 263 Days on market

Built 2009 $120/sqft · 72% above area ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled 2009 Fleetwood! Enjoy 3 bed, 2 bath, split wing, 960 sq ft that shines with new LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, kitchen cabinets, countertops & appliances, windows, and roof. Located in a welcoming 55+ community with low $740 space rent, plus amenities: small park, laundry & event room. Close to shopping & transportation. One person needs to be 55+ will be eval case by case by parks discretion wtr & sewer included in park rent tenant pays for garbage only.

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Appliances
• Kitchen cabinets

Tags

• REMODELED
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• INTERIOR EXTERIOR PAINT
• KITCHEN CABINETS
• COUNTERTOPS
• APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $508 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.1% in Hayesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#63 in OR, #2,298 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 175 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $101,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.94%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $66,899
• List price: $114,999
• Delta: 71.90%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4882 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 145B	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	9mo	$53,000	$57	78
5174 Copper Crk #153	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,000 (+4%)	9mo	$95,000	$95	61
5131 NE Copper Crk #67	0.60mi	3/2.0	924 (-4%)	6mo	$65,000	$70	60
4228 Lemon St NE #57	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	8mo	$49,000	$51	55
5593 43rd Pl NE	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (0%)	17mo	$80,000	$83	51
5422 Portland Rd NE #54	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (+10%)	3mo	$28,000	$27	51
5422 Portland Rd NE #33	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	2mo	$60,000	$56	47
5422 Portland Rd NE #68	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	15mo	$36,000	$39	47
5552 Portland Rd NE #10	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	924 (-4%)	15mo	$42,500	$46	47
5422 Portland Rd NE Unit 106A	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	14mo	$55,000	$51	37
5422 Portland Rd NE Unit 107B	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+12%)	15mo	$47,500	$44	36
5422 Portland Rd NE #19	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	828 (-14%)	17mo	$22,500	$27	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $13,704
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $53,481
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97305

• Active inventory: 175
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $508

Break-even live

Break-even rent $889

Max offer price $114,999

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $573	-5% $541	+0% $508	+5% $476	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $448	+0% $508	+5% $569	+10% $629
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $538	base $508	+0.5pp $478	+1.0pp $448

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4828 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	832	$1,435	$1.72	14d	5	0.17mi
4040 Hayesville Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	927	$1,995	$2.15	14d	25	0.36mi
4624 Lancaster Dr NE Salem, OR	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	963	$2,325	$2.41	14d	10	0.49mi
5115 Countryside St NE Salem, OR	3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,260	$2.58	14d	20	0.61mi
4007 Iberis St NE Unit 4007 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	44d	1	0.87mi
3942 Ward Dr NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,550	$2.00	44d	3	0.89mi
3875 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	707	$1,295	$1.83	24d	1	0.92mi
4375 Falcon View Way NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	842	$1,395	$1.66	44d	1	0.92mi
3813 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	14d	1	0.94mi
3807 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,295	$1.49	24d	1	0.94mi
4370 Fisher Rd NE Unit 203 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,545	$1.41	14d	1	0.96mi
3792 Iberis St NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	868	$1,145	$1.32	24d	1	0.96mi
4209 Satter Pl NE Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	14d	2	0.99mi
3568 NE Cherry Glen Pl Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,495	$1.57	14d	7	0.99mi
4097-4207 Satter Dr NE Unit 4139 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,195	$1.54	44d	1	1.01mi
4001 Satter Dr NE Unit 4067 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	44d	1	1.05mi
4097 Satter Dr NE Unit 4157 Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	775	$1,195	$1.54	14d	1	1.05mi
4116 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4116 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	24d	1	1.17mi
4114 Lancaster Dr NE Unit 4114 Salem, OR	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,295	$1.18	44d	1	1.17mi
2768 Claxter Rd NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,599	$1.97	14d	3	1.22mi
4261 Hawthorne Ave NE Unit 218 Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	44d	1	1.22mi
4245 Hawthorne Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,450	$1.52	24d	1	1.24mi
2540 Hyacinth St NE Salem, OR	1.0–2.0	1.0	665	$1,220	$1.83	14d	2	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 55A Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,479	$1.64	44d	1	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 15H Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,459	$1.62	44d	1	1.40mi
3295 Felina Ave NE Unit 85G Salem, OR	2.0	1.0	900	$1,399	$1.55	44d	1	1.40mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,999 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,999 Active 262 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,999 Active 261 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $114,999 Active 260 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $114,999 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $114,999 Active 255 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $114,999 Active 254 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $114,999 Active 253 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $114,999 Active 252 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $114,999 Active 248 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $114,999 Active 247 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $114,999 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $114,999 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $114,999 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-01-23
    soldstatus $100,000 Sold 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Remodeled 2009 Fleetwood! Enjoy 3 bed, 2 bath, split wing, 960 sq ft that shines with new LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, kitchen cabinets, countertops & appliances, windows, and roof. Located in a welcoming 55+ community with low $740 space rent, plus amenities: small park, laundry & event room. Close to shopping & transportation. One person needs to be 55+ will be eval case by case by parks discretion wtr & sewer included in park rent tenant pays for garbage only.

16. 2025-11-22
    historical Active under Contract 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Remodeled 2009 Fleetwood! Enjoy 3 bed, 2 bath, split wing, 960 sq ft that shines with new LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, kitchen cabinets, countertops & appliances, windows, and roof. Located in a welcoming 55+ community with low $740 space rent, plus amenities: small park, laundry & event room. Close to shopping & transportation. One person needs to be 55+ will be eval case by case by parks discretion wtr & sewer included in park rent tenant pays for garbage only.

17. 2025-10-11
    price $110,999 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Remodeled 2009 Fleetwood! Enjoy 3 bed, 2 bath, split wing, 960 sq ft that shines with new LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, kitchen cabinets, countertops & appliances, windows, and roof. Located in a welcoming 55+ community with low $740 space rent, plus amenities: small park, laundry & event room. Close to shopping & transportation. One person needs to be 55+ will be eval case by case by parks discretion wtr & sewer included in park rent tenant pays for garbage only.

18. 2025-09-28
    listed $114,999 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    Remodeled 2009 Fleetwood! Enjoy 3 bed, 2 bath, split wing, 960 sq ft that shines with new LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, kitchen cabinets, countertops & appliances, windows, and roof. Located in a welcoming 55+ community with low $740 space rent, plus amenities: small park, laundry & event room. Close to shopping & transportation. 5543 Mon-Thurs noon to 3 pm Friday by appt only

19. 2025-09-04
    listed $114,999 Active 493-char remark

    Show marketing remark (493 chars)

    Remodeled 2009 Fleetwood! Enjoy 3 bed, 2 bath, split wing, 960 sq ft that shines with new LVP flooring, interior/exterior paint, kitchen cabinets, countertops & appliances, windows, and roof. Located in a welcoming 55+ community with low $740 space rent, plus amenities: small park, laundry & event room. Close to shopping & transportation. One person needs to be 55+ will be eval case by case by parks discretion wtr & sewer included in park rent tenant pays for garbage only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$496/yr (+$41/mo · 80.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,471
• − Management: −$1,471
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $4,469
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,072
• After-tax cash flow: $5,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Hayesville

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #63
• US rank: #2298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayesville, OR
• Population (ZIP): 45,044

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 44% Two or more races 16% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 3% Native American 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -328.50%
• Current HPI: 296.3428
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-23 Sold (MLS) $100,000 WVMLS
• 2025-11-22 Contingent — WVMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $110,999 WVMLS
• 2025-09-28 Listed $114,999 RMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $114,999 WVMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $619 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.