2011 37th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$82,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,019 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1957 7,288 sqft lot $80/sqft · 50% below area Est $132k · 38% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great little house near Tech. This charming house is a smart buy at under 100k. Don't let this one go. Come take a look.

Key facts

• 7,288 sq ft lot
• Built 1957
• Listed 129 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($929 rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,160 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.76%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,051
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: -37.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-4,195
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $10,528
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $929 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,683/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$195
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	43d	1	0.09mi
2011 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$800	$0.99	43d	1	0.16mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	43d	1	0.17mi
1919 34th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1463	$1,100	$0.75	13d	1	0.19mi
2208 35th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	767	$750	$0.98	43d	1	0.27mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	13d	1	0.28mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	13d	1	0.28mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	21d	1	0.32mi
2211 33rd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1293	$1,200	$0.93	43d	1	0.33mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	21d	1	0.33mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	21d	1	0.34mi
2003 32nd St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1228	$1,150	$0.94	43d	1	0.35mi
2119 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1055	$950	$0.90	43d	1	0.36mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$695	$0.50	21d	1	0.38mi
2106 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1398	$925	$0.66	43d	1	0.38mi
1920 45th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	21d	1	0.45mi
2315 32nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	21d	1	0.48mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.50mi
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	13d	1	0.52mi
2420 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$799	$1.00	21d	1	0.57mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.58mi
2120 47th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$795	$1.00	21d	1	0.59mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.59mi
2411 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1003	$1,000	$1.00	21d	1	0.60mi
1604 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$650	$0.93	43d	1	0.61mi
2201 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1246	$995	$0.80	21d	1	0.63mi
2419 31st St Apt B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	878	$795	$0.91	13d	1	0.63mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,010	$1.00	13d	23	0.63mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	21d	1	0.64mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	21d	1	0.64mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	13d	3	0.66mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	21d	1	0.66mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	13d	1	0.67mi
2409 45th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$895	$1.12	43d	1	0.67mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	21d	1	0.67mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.68mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	43d	1	0.68mi
2007 27th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1044	$1,250	$1.20	43d	1	0.69mi
2316 47th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	21d	1	0.69mi
2115 27th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1148	$875	$0.76	21d	1	0.69mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $82,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $82,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $82,000 Active 118 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $82,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,000 Active 111 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $82,000 Active 110 DOM
17. 2026-03-12
    price $84,000 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great little house near Tech. This charming house is a smart buy at under 100k. Don't let this one go. Come take a look.

18. 2026-03-07
    price $85,900 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great little house near Tech. This charming house is a smart buy at under 100k. Don't let this one go. Come take a look.

19. 2026-02-10
    listed $89,990 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Great little house near Tech. This charming house is a smart buy at under 100k. Don't let this one go. Come take a look.

20. 2017-08-31
    soldstatus
21. 1991-06-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,683 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,145
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$1,683
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$892
• − Management: −$892
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $290
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $84,000 LARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $85,900 LARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $89,990 LARMLS
• 2017-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1991-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,683 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.