3 Lodi St · Forestville, NY 14062

$99,901

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,315 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1870 9,620 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

More info coming soon. ..

Key facts

• 9,620 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1870

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner pays water; rent includes water; Operating expenses include maintenance, supplies, and water/sewer; Two rental units with current rents of $525 and $600

Exterior

• Parking: Two or more parking spaces
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Septic tank
• Home design: Two-story multifamily building; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; See remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchens in each unit
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit has 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varies by area
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (each unit has 1 full bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; varies by area; Dirt-floor partial/full basement (has basement)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#982 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Forestville Central School District (rural): math 55% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #380 of 755 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $100k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1870 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $96,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1870 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.45%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $41,011
• Equity at exit: $56,001

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.88×
• Total profit: $108,443
• Equity at exit: $96,147

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14062

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,637/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $994

Max offer price $99,901

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $347	-5% $318	+0% $290	+5% $262	+10% $234
Rent	-10% $183	-5% $236	+0% $290	+5% $344	+10% $398
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $316	base $290	+0.5pp $264	+1.0pp $238

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,901 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,901 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,901 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,901 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,901 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,901 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,901 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,901 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,901 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,901 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,901 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,901 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,901 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,901 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,901 Active 21 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    price $99,901 25-char remark
17. 2026-05-10
    listed $89,901 Active 25-char remark
18. 2014-09-15
    soldstatus $59,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,637 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,637 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$2,637
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,307
• − Management: −$1,307
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,083
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$500
• After-tax cash flow: $2,982/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forestville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611250
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $50,335
• Composite: 47.99/100
• National rank: #4800
• State rank: #380 of 755 in NY

Livability — Forestville

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #982
• US rank: #19170

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forestville, NY
• Population (ZIP): 3,220

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Iranian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.90%
• Current HPI: 322.5177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+69.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $99,901 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-10 Listed $89,901 UNYREIS
• 2014-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $59,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,637 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.