4628 Bailey St · Missoula, MT 59808

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 61 Days on market

Built 1998 Fair condition Est $150k · 14% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Relaxing garden tub
• Eat-in dining area
• Generously sized lot

Tags

• GENEROUSLY SIZED LOT
• BRIGHT AND OPEN KITCHEN
• EAT-IN DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS BATHROOM
• RELAXING GARDEN TUB
• EXPANSIVE DECK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One story; Block foundation
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Patio; Level lot/topography; Park community feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Accessible entrance with ramp
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 1.7% in Missoula — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#17 in MT, #2,351 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Missoula H S (urban): math 31% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #53 of 116 in MT (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 773 units permitted in Missoula County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Missoula County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,260 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.21%
• DSCR: 2.17
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $149,568
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4629 Bailey St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$149,000	$123	92
4616 Richlie St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$39,000	$32	89
4633 Chandler St	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	21mo	$169,000	$139	81
4753 Richlie St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	9mo	$150,000	$123	77
4725 Graham St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	6mo	$25,000	$20	77
4636 Richlie St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	21mo	$189,000	$155	73
4628 Richlie St	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+1%)	20mo	$185,000	$150	73
4613 Chandler St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	19mo	$159,000	$124	73
4037 Mathew St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	12mo	$175,000	$135	69
4729 Ambrose St	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-8%)	10mo	$15,000	$13	64
4708 Parent St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-13%)	21mo	$99,000	$94	55
4720 Sage St	0.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-10%)	18mo	$129,000	$119	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $28,002
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.32×
• Total profit: $83,628
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59808

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,127 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $789

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3735 W Broadway St Missoula, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,600	$2.48	43d	6	0.42mi
4710 Expressway Missoula, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	780	$1,375	$1.76	43d	4	0.72mi
5306 Elyn Loop Missoula, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	891	$2,065	$2.32	43d	35	0.79mi
3705 England Blvd Missoula, MT	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,525	$1.98	43d	1	1.15mi
2620 George Elmer Dr Missoula, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,700	$2.31	43d	35	1.35mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $129,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,000 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,000 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,000 Active 42 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,000 Active 41 DOM
18. 2026-05-16
    price $129,000
19. 2026-04-20
    listed $139,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥91°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,527
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,042
• − Management: −$2,042
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $7,884
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,892
• After-tax cash flow: $7,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen, bathrooms, exterior, flooring, and interior walls. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — cabinets are cluttered and could use cleaning
• Minor bathroom fixtures — fixtures appear outdated and could be replaced
• Moderate exterior siding — siding shows signs of wear and could benefit from repainting
• Minor flooring — tile flooring in kitchen and bathrooms could be replaced with more modern options
• Minor interior walls — wallpaper and paint could be updated to a more modern design

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value
• Both replace outdated bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms will improve both resale and rental value
• Both paint exterior siding — painting the exterior will improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value
• Both replace outdated flooring — modernizing the flooring will improve both resale and rental value
• Both update interior walls and ceilings — modernizing the interior will improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · cabinets are cluttered and could use cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · fixtures appear outdated and could be replaced	Minor	$500–3,000
exterior siding · siding shows signs of wear and could benefit from repainting	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
flooring · tile flooring in kitchen and bathrooms could be replaced with more modern options	Minor	$500–3,000
interior walls · wallpaper and paint could be updated to a more modern design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$5,000–27,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both replace outdated bathroom fixtures — modernizing the bathrooms will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint exterior siding — painting the exterior will improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both replace outdated flooring — modernizing the flooring will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both update interior walls and ceilings — modernizing the interior will improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Missoula H S
• NCES district ID: 3018540
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $41,814
• Composite: 34.87/100
• National rank: #5087
• State rank: #53 of 116 in MT

Livability — Missoula

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #2351

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime F Employment C- Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Missoula County · 100,878 people
• City population: 100,878
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $80,239
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1022.0

Population outlook (Missoula County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,248 people
• By 2030: 133,571 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 144,833 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 156,753 · +23.2%
• By 2075: 189,373 · +48.8%
• By 2100: 217,637 · +71.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Missoula

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.4) · D 59.0% · R 37.5% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.7pp · 2024: 21.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.4 2020: D+23.6 2016: D+15.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+26.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -165.87%
• Current HPI: 269.9288
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.35%
• Metro: Missoula, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

-7.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $129,000 MRMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $139,000 MRMLS