15 Stepping Stone Ln · Guilford Center, CT 06443

$459,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1974 1.25 ac lot Est $525k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PLS SUBMIT HIGHEST & BEST OFFER BY NOON 4/7/26. Situated in a quiet, desirable neighborhood, this inviting 4-bedroom raised ranch sits on over 1.25 acres with a lovely, spacious and level backyard-ideal for outdoor living and entertaining. The main level features an open layout with an eat-in kitchen, dining area, and living room, along with four bedrooms and a full hall bath, all on one level. A large deck conveniently located off the dining room and kitchen overlooks the private yard. The walkout lower level offers a comfortable family room with a cozy fireplace, sliders to the backyard, and a convenient half bath with laundry. Recent updates include a new roof (2020) and water heat

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area recorded as 1,346 (public record)

Exterior

• Parking: Under-house garage; Two-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewage
• Home design: Single-family home
• Construction: Built with frame construction; Vinyl siding; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot; Water access

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven/Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heat; Oil-fired heat (oil tank located in garage)
• Interior features: Six total rooms; One fireplace; Full basement that is partially finished with a hatchway; Attic with pull-down stairs
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located on the lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $424k (7.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $372k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $372k (19.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Guilford Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#10 in CT, #1,186 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Madison School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #10 of 153 in CT (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Daniel Hand High School (math 69% / reading 86%, grade A-, #8 of 194 statewide, top 4%, 828 students, 5% FRL) — zoned schools at 5% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 67% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $372,031 (19.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.88%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $524,940
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 Stepping Stone Ln	0.00mi	4/1.5	1,346 (0%)	1mo	$525,000	$390	99
24 Deepwood Dr	0.56mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (-11%)	10mo	$475,000	$396	43
436 Opening Hill Rd	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,144 (-15%)	15mo	$348,000	$304	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-87,279
• Equity at exit: $68,513

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-92,412
• Equity at exit: $39,729

Cash invested: $128,660 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06443

• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,410
• Tax from tax record: −$540 /mo · $6,477/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$781
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,976

Max offer price $423,846

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,875
• Closing costs: $13,785
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-23
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-07
   historical Under Contract - Continue to Show
3. 2026-04-03
   listed $459,500 Active
4. 2026-03-31
   historical $459,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,477 · $540/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,155 · $680/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,678/yr (+$140/mo · 25.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 67% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,644
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,739
• − Property taxes: −$6,477
• − Insurance: −$2,298
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,571
• − Management: −$3,571
• − Depreciation: −$13,367
• Taxable loss: −$10,380
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,491
• After-tax cash flow: $69/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison School District
• NCES district ID: 0902280
• Math proficiency: 69% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $103,788
• Composite: 66.15/100
• National rank: #435
• State rank: #10 of 153 in CT

Livability — Guilford Center

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1186

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute C Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,577

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -375.58%
• Current HPI: 242.8467
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-07 Contingent — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-03 Listed $459,500 Smart MLS
• 2026-03-31 Coming Soon $459,500 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $6,477 · +1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.