203 Cinnaminson Ave · Palmyra, NJ 08065

$164,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1930 3,900 sqft lot Est $255k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Best and final due by Saturday April 4,2026 12 noon. No escalation clauses. Great fixer-upper in excellent location only 2 blocks to the river with spectacular views and in a great family neighborhood! Features 3 BR 1 full bath all nice size rooms ready for you to create your own beautiful home. Roof was replaced approx. 1 year ago and back porch wase also replaced. Walk up attic. Nice driveway and back yard. 1 small storage sheds are included. Large storage shed is being removed. Being sold strictly "As Is" Buyer responsible for any township, or lender repairs C/O and Smoke , inspections. Large storage shed is not included,

Key facts

• Nice driveway
• Back yard
• Back porch repaired

Tags

• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• BACK PORCH REPAIRED
• NICE DRIVEWAY
• BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $240 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $164k).
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.6% in Palmyra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#204 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Palmyra Public School District (suburban): math 16% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #343 of 472 in NJ (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,161 units permitted in Burlington County in 2024 (988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burlington County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $164k implies a 83% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.26%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
203 Cinnaminson Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,288 (0%)	1mo	$172,824	$134	99
106 Quay Ct	0.46mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,292 (+0%)	6mo	$285,000	$221	62
3404 Ebbtide Ln	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,376 (+7%)	2mo	$317,000	$230	57
2052 Harbour Dr	0.34mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,426 (+11%)	6mo	$262,000	$184	54
3036 Harbour Dr	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,426 (+11%)	2mo	$265,000	$186	54
1107 Harbour Dr	0.36mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,426 (+11%)	6mo	$249,000	$175	53
2126 Harbour Dr #2126	0.36mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,426 (+11%)	2mo	$239,000	$168	53
3049 Harbour Dr	0.37mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,136 (-12%)	0mo	$245,000	$216	52
3072 Harbour Dr #3072	0.39mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,136 (-12%)	2mo	$229,000	$202	50
2147 Harbour Dr	0.40mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,136 (-12%)	1mo	$225,000	$198	50
3059 Harbour Dr	0.38mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,426 (+11%)	5mo	$265,000	$186	49
3067 Harbour Dr	0.37mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,136 (-12%)	6mo	$239,900	$211	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,173
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $10,704
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08065

• Home prices YoY: -28.7%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,049 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax from tax record: −$447 /mo · $5,365/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,745

Max offer price $164,500

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $333	-5% $287	+0% $240	+5% $194	+10% $147
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $159	+0% $240	+5% $321	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $323	-0.5pp $282	base $240	+0.5pp $198	+1.0pp $154

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
517 Morgan Ave Unit 6 Palmyra, NJ	2.0	1.0	1050	$2,000	$1.90	24d	1	0.32mi
2147 Harbour Dr Palmyra, NJ	2.0	2.5	1036	$2,100	$2.03	15d	1	0.41mi
4065 Harbour Dr Palmyra, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	1d	9	0.42mi
198 Camelot Ct Cinnaminson, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	942	$2,260	$2.40	1d	5	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $164,500 Active
3. 2001-09-24
   soldstatus $90,000
4. 1984-05-01
   soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,365 · $447/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,365 · $447/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,585
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$5,365
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,967
• − Management: −$1,967
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable income: $464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$111
• After-tax cash flow: $2,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palmyra Public School District
• NCES district ID: 3412390
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,779
• Composite: 27.0/100
• National rank: #7066
• State rank: #343 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Palmyra

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #204
• US rank: #5735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living D+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palmyra, NJ
• City population: 7,447
• Population (ZIP): 7,447

Population outlook (Burlington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 453,425 people
• By 2030: 452,359 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 445,033 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 431,760 · -4.8%
• By 2075: 406,277 · -10.4%
• By 2100: 364,732 · -19.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Black 15% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Guatemala, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burlington

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.6% · R 41.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+19.5 2016: D+14.8 2012: D+18.7 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.34%
• Current HPI: 309.5642
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+250.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $164,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-09-24 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,365 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.