Baker Plan · Heron Bay, GA 30248

$363,650

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 432 Days on market

Excellent condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The NEW Baker home plan is an open concept plan for those who love to host family and friends. The gourmet kitchen with massive walk-in pantry and spacious island overlooks the family room and dining room with easy patio access. A conveniently located powder room and mudroom is situated off of the garage and kitchen. A large flex space on the main living area is ideal for an office or formal gathering area. The second floor provides flexibility for how you live and work, with three spacious secondary bedrooms with lots of closet space, a linen closet, laundry room, and a full bathroom. The primary bedroom suite is the ideal retreat, complete with a double vanity, linen closet, a walk-in shower, and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Spacious island
• Double vanity
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• MASSIVE WALK-IN PANTRY
• SPACIOUS ISLAND
• PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• DOUBLE VANITY
• WALK-IN SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $363,650 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $375,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $364k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-345 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $325k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $284k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#159 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Bethlehem Elementary School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #753 of 1,228 statewide, top 64%, 474 students, 53% FRL); Luella Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #345 of 470 statewide, top 74%, 870 students, 53% FRL); Luella High School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #277 of 424 statewide, top 67%, 1,373 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 732 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 93d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 432 days — a 12% lower offer ($320k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $284,389 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 432 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.94%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $375,000
• List price: $363,650
• Delta: -3.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5349 Heron Bay Blvd	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,091 (-1%)	6mo	$376,000	$180	91
5357 Heron Bay Blvd	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,091 (-1%)	6mo	$370,845	$177	90
5365 Heron Bay Blvd	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,091 (-1%)	6mo	$360,000	$172	90
5356 Heron Bay Blvd	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+14%)	1mo	$435,000	$181	72
5345 Heron Bay Blvd	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+14%)	4mo	$384,470	$160	71
5337 Heron Bay Blvd	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+14%)	4mo	$374,000	$155	70
5353 Heron Bay Blvd	0.05mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+14%)	7mo	$384,470	$160	69
5361 Heron Bay Blvd	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,409 (+14%)	8mo	$382,045	$159	68
5316 Heron Bay Blvd	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,827 (-14%)	4mo	$360,600	$197	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-85,072
• Equity at exit: $55,914

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-111,805
• Equity at exit: $32,423

Cash invested: $105,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.4 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $373,650 ($170/sqft)
• Median days on market: 61 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30248

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 732
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$469 /mo · $5,625/yr
• Insurance: −$156
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-345

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $325,097

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-86	-5% $-215	+0% $-345	+5% $-474	+10% $-604
Rent	-10% $-570	-5% $-457	+0% $-345	+5% $-233	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-156	-0.5pp $-249	base $-345	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,750
• Closing costs: $11,250
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5341 Heron Bay Blvd Locust Grove, GA	4.0	2.5	2091	$2,800	$1.34	93d	1	0.08mi
7663 Watson Cir Locust Grove, GA	5.0	3.0	2556	$2,800	$1.10	49d	1	0.83mi
222 High Court Way Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2259	$2,299	$1.02	87d	1	0.98mi
117 Cottage Club Dr Locust Grove, GA	3.0	3.0	2109	$1,995	$0.95	139d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $363,650 Active 432 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $363,650 Active 430 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $363,650 Active 429 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $363,650 Active 428 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $363,650 Active 427 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $363,650 Active 426 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $363,650 Active 425 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $363,650 Active 424 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $363,650 Active 423 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $363,650 Active 422 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $363,650 Active 421 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $363,650 Active 420 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $363,650 Active 414 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $363,650 Active 413 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $363,650 Active 412 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $363,650 Active 409 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $363,650 Active 407 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $363,650 Active 406 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $363,650 Active 405 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $363,650 Active 403 DOM
21. 2026-08-24
    days on market $363,650 Active 402 DOM
22. 2026-08-23
    days on market $363,650 Active 401 DOM
23. 2026-08-22
    days on market $363,650 Active 400 DOM
24. 2026-08-21
    days on market $363,650 Active 399 DOM
25. 2026-08-20
    days on market $363,650 Active 398 DOM
26. 2026-08-19
    days on market $363,650 Active 397 DOM
27. 2026-08-18
    days on market $363,650 Active 396 DOM
28. 2026-08-17
    days on market $363,650 Active 395 DOM
29. 2026-08-16
    days on market $363,650 Active 394 DOM
30. 2026-08-15
    days on market $363,650 Active 393 DOM
31. 2026-08-14
    days on market $363,650 Active 392 DOM
32. 2026-08-13
    days on market $363,650 Active 391 DOM
33. 2026-08-12
    days on market $363,650 Active 390 DOM
34. 2026-08-11
    days on market $363,650 Active 389 DOM
35. 2026-08-10
    days on market $363,650 Active 388 DOM
36. 2026-08-09
    days on market $363,650 Active 387 DOM
37. 2026-08-08
    days on market $363,650 Active 386 DOM
38. 2026-08-06
    days on market $363,650 Active 384 DOM
39. 2026-08-05
    days on market $363,650 Active 383 DOM
40. 2026-08-04
    days on market $363,650 Active 382 DOM
41. 2026-08-03
    days on market $363,650 Active 381 DOM
42. 2026-07-31
    days on market $363,650 Active 378 DOM
43. 2026-07-30
    days on market $363,650 Active 376 DOM
44. 2026-07-28
    days on market $363,650 Active 375 DOM
45. 2026-07-26
    days on market $363,650 Active 373 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $363,650 Active 371 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    pricedays on market $363,650 Active 370 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $363,400 Active 369 DOM
49. 2026-07-20
    days on market $363,400 Active 367 DOM
50. 2026-07-18
    days on market $363,400 Active 365 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,006
• − Property taxes: −$5,625
• − Insurance: −$1,875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,730
• − Management: −$2,730
• − Depreciation: −$10,909
• Taxable loss: −$10,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,559/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor aesthetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale New flooring in bathrooms — Improves appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and appeal ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bethlehem Elementary School F GA #753/1,228 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Luella Middle School F GA #345/470 Nat'l #11,564/14,009 High Luella High School F GA #277/424 Nat'l #15,029/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Heron Bay

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #159
• US rank: #10151

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heron Bay, GA
• County: Henry County · 249,041 people
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 36,038
• Household income: $83,823
• Rent vs Own: 15.8% rent · 84.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

---

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -54.09%
• Current HPI: 203.5358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.16%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $358,400 Zillow
• 2025-07-18 Listed $354,900 Zillow