39183 Warm Springs Dr · Palm Desert, CA 92260

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1974 3,920 sqft lot Est $261k · 23% under $400/mo HOA · 10% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is not an Arms-length transaction. It is a sale to a family member and put into the MLS for agency requirements. The home is in fairly nice condition with a few repairs recommended.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include golf course within development and pickleball courts; Pool and heated in-ground spa available in the community; Disclosures: CC&R, pet restrictions, property sold as-is, HOA disclosures; Some pieces of furniture included (no value)
• Financial info: Sale terms: cash; Possession at close of escrow; Will not consider lease; Short-term rentals not allowed
• HOA & community: HOA exists with monthly fees; Association fee: $400 monthly; HOA amenities include clubhouse, golf course, fitness center, and security; Space rent includes HOA fee

Exterior

• Parking: Total of 6 parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; 2 carport spaces; 2 uncovered/assigned spaces; Tandem parking
• Security: Gated community; Community security included
• Utilities: Sewer connected and paid; PUD: yes
• Home design: Double-wide manufactured home (Royal Chateau); Single-story, ground level with no unit above; Model name: Lancer; Entry level: living room
• Construction: Built in 1973 (manufacture date 01/01/1973); Pier jacks foundation; Double wide mobile/manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Awning-covered patio; Community security; Close to clubhouse; Street lights; Front door faces west; Mountain views; Detached property

Interior

• Flooring: Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane gas heating with forced air; Air conditioning
• Interior features: Shutters on windows; Entry opens to the living room; Furnished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 15.1% vs local median 3.5% in Palm Desert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,050 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A-, employment B+, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Desert Sands Unified (suburban): math 31% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #199 of 517 in CA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 545 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,934/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1734% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 27y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $200k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.32%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,640
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
39183 Warm Springs Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$200,000	$139	100
39832 Black Mesa Ln	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	0mo	$260,000	$181	82
73450 Country Club Dr #75	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$190,000	$132	81
73651 Adobe Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	1mo	$199,000	$134	81
38430 Desert Greens Dr E	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	3mo	$325,000	$226	78
73171 Cabazon Peak Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$230,000	$160	77
73450 Country Club Dr #309	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$165,000	$123	68
38703 Desert Greens Dr E	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	0mo	$322,000	$258	65
38668 Fawn Springs Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,600 (+11%)	0mo	$410,000	$256	61
73450 Country Club Dr #87	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,636 (+14%)	1mo	$222,500	$136	56
38401 Desert Greens Dr W	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$250,000	$186	56
73165 Desert Greens Dr N	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	3mo	$286,000	$213	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $55,438
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $147,241
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92260

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 545
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,934 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,368/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $1,462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,084

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73843 Line Canyon Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1570	$2,100	$1.34	11d	1	0.28mi
73639 Cabazon Peak Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1717	$2,400	$1.40	43d	1	0.30mi
73450 Country Club Dr #120 Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1856	$2,995	$1.61	11d	1	0.30mi
38520 Poppet Canyon Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1392	$3,700	$2.66	43d	1	0.36mi
4162 Via Mattina Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1867	$2,950	$1.58	12d	1	0.40mi
38250 Azalea Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1806	$5,500	$3.05	43d	1	0.48mi
2701 Via Calderia Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1559	$2,850	$1.83	24d	1	0.49mi
248 Strada Fortuna Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	43d	1	0.53mi
73075 Buck Springs Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,950	$1.35	43d	1	0.54mi
1803 Via San Martino Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1559	$3,900	$2.50	43d	1	0.56mi
73373 Country Club Dr Palm Desert, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	852	$2,165	$2.54	43d	1	0.58mi
40064 Silktree Ct Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1712	$3,200	$1.87	24d	1	0.62mi
41517 Armanac Ct Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$3,400	$2.21	3d	1	0.68mi
40445 Portola Ave Palm Desert, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	975	$3,215	$3.30	5d	15	0.71mi
73750 Calle Bisque Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1537	$6,500	$4.23	43d	1	0.71mi
8 Las Cruces Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1705	$5,000	$2.93	43d	1	0.73mi
40255 Sagewood Dr Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1712	$3,300	$1.93	18d	1	0.75mi
74300 Country Club Dr Unit 366 Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1140	$7,170	$6.29	43d	1	0.78mi
74300 Country Club Dr Apt 5001 Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1099	$7,120	$6.48	43d	1	0.78mi
37772 Hollister Dr Palm Desert, CA	3.0	2.0	1271	$3,200	$2.52	43d	1	0.79mi
4 Hermosillo Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1572	$2,900	$1.84	18d	1	0.79mi
1 Marbella Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$4,500	$4.17	43d	1	0.87mi
191 Winterhaven Cir Palm Desert, CA	2.0	1.5	1250	$2,800	$2.24	43d	1	0.89mi
166 Wimbledon Ct Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$3,200	$2.56	43d	1	0.91mi
323 San Remo St Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1556	$8,500	$5.46	43d	1	0.95mi
255 San Remo St Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$6,600	$3.99	43d	1	0.96mi
150 Willow Lake Dr Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,500	$2.20	43d	1	0.96mi
336 Villena Way Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	43d	1	0.99mi
217 Las Lomas Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$6,300	$3.80	43d	1	1.00mi
205 Las Lomas Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1457	$6,000	$4.12	43d	1	1.01mi
363 San Remo St Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$7,500	$4.53	43d	1	1.02mi
365 San Remo St Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,500	$4.22	43d	1	1.03mi
337 Villena Way Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1303	$5,000	$3.84	43d	1	1.03mi
206 Lakecrest Ln Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1138	$2,300	$2.02	11d	1	1.04mi
311 Villena Way Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1653	$7,000	$4.23	24d	1	1.04mi
177 Las Lomas Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$7,500	$4.17	43d	1	1.05mi
264 Avenida del Sol Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$6,000	$3.33	43d	1	1.06mi
305 Durango Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1670	$6,300	$3.77	43d	1	1.09mi
295 Cordoba Way Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1800	$6,000	$3.33	43d	1	1.12mi
316 S Sierra Madre Palm Desert, CA	2.0	2.0	1656	$5,700	$3.44	43d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-15
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $200,000 Active
3. 1999-02-23
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 1999-01-19
   historical
5. 1999-01-17
   listed $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,368 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,520 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$152/yr (+$13/mo · 11.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,207
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,368
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,777
• − Management: −$3,777
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $15,464
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,711
• After-tax cash flow: $13,828/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desert Sands Unified
• NCES district ID: 0611110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,957
• Composite: 37.77/100
• National rank: #4346
• State rank: #199 of 517 in CA

Livability — Palm Desert

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1050
• US rank: #25164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment B+ Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Desert, CA
• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 58,615
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 30,523
• Household income: $70,091
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1734.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 20% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.94%
• Current HPI: 294.9425
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+136.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Contingent — GPSMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $200,000 GPSMLS
• 1999-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-19 Listing Removed — GPSMLS
• 1999-01-17 Listed $84,500 GPSMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,368 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.