Plan 2325 Modeled Plan · Winchester, CA 92596

$542,990

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,325 sqft · SingleFamily · 218 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks

* Downstairs bedroom with full bath * Walk-in shower at primary bath and bath 3 * Covered back patio * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Thermofoil cabinets with brushed satin nickel knobs * Stainless steel appliances * Kitchen island * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Solar energy system * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Solar energy system
• Thermofoil cabinets
• Covered back patio

Tags

• COVERED BACK PATIO
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• THERMOFOIL CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• SOLAR ENERGY SYSTEM

🏗️ New construction. The $542,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $636,050.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $543k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $465k (14.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $406k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $406k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 509 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$109k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($478k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $406,437 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $636,050
• List price: $542,990
• Delta: -14.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
29490 Encelia Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,503 (+8%)	0mo	$667,555	$267	75
30753 Alister Ln	0.19mi	5/3.0	2,534 (+9%)	2mo	$639,000	$252	74
30656 Paul Ln	0.16mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,503 (+8%)	1mo	$634,555	$254	74
29465 Encelia Ln	0.17mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,503 (+8%)	1mo	$619,990	$248	74
30667 Expedition Dr	0.23mi	5/2.5	2,540 (+9%)	1mo	$668,000	$263	71
31096 Ferguson Ct	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,449 (+5%)	2mo	$695,000	$284	64
30525 Camino Placer	0.57mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,259 (-3%)	2mo	$633,730	$281	62
30549 Camino Placer	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,537 (+9%)	2mo	$693,990	$274	57
28777 Via de Manzana	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,537 (+9%)	2mo	$699,990	$276	56
29081 Soffel	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,033 (-13%)	0mo	$560,000	$275	54
28729 Via de Manzana	0.63mi	5/3.0	2,537 (+9%)	1mo	$679,990	$268	54
31144 Ferguson Ct	0.48mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,085 (-10%)	1mo	$639,990	$307	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $259,103
• Equity at exit: $573,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $801,148
• Equity at exit: $1,235,704

Cash invested: $178,094 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 82 active · 50 under contract
• Months of supply: 9.5 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $639,990 ($272/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 509
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,336
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$795 /mo · $9,541/yr
• Insurance: −$265
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$854
• Net cashflow: $-1,185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,564

Max offer price $464,615

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-745	-5% $-965	+0% $-1,185	+5% $-1,405	+10% $-1,624
Rent	-10% $-1,506	-5% $-1,345	+0% $-1,185	+5% $-1,024	+10% $-864
Rate	-1.0pp $-864	-0.5pp $-1,023	base $-1,185	+0.5pp $-1,350	+1.0pp $-1,517

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $159,012
• Closing costs: $19,081
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29343 Windy Willow Ln Menifee, CA	4.0	3.0	2083	$4,500	$2.16	0d	1	0.12mi
29221 Searchers Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	2374	$3,695	$1.56	13d	1	0.21mi
30551 Vera Cruz Cir Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2866	$3,400	$1.19	19d	1	0.30mi
30872 Hawkscrest Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2227	$3,350	$1.50	0d	1	0.31mi
30783 Pony Express Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2239	$3,200	$1.43	0d	1	0.36mi
30851 Le Baron Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,245	$1.77	10d	1	0.38mi
30607 Cyclone Ave Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2056	$3,199	$1.56	75d	1	0.41mi
28876 Camaro Dr Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2400	$3,350	$1.40	3d	1	0.41mi
31880 Corte Avila Menifee, CA	5.0	3.5	3056	$3,950	$1.29	159d	1	0.41mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2446	$3,595	$1.47	151d	1	0.42mi
28841 Cutlass St Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	2391	$3,395	$1.42	114d	1	0.44mi
28798 Enclave Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,200	$1.74	18d	1	0.50mi
28798 Enclave Ln Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1835	$3,095	$1.69	3d	1	0.50mi
28743 Camaro Dr Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2059	$3,300	$1.60	43d	1	0.50mi
30913 Chuckwagon Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	2474	$3,395	$1.37	132d	1	0.54mi
28650 New Yorker Ln Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1875	$3,500	$1.87	37d	1	0.61mi
28635 Matador Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1775	$2,995	$1.69	114d	1	0.62mi
29291 Mountain Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	10d	1	0.77mi
29291 Mountain Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	21d	1	0.77mi
29322 Leopard Wood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,499	$2.06	1d	1	0.80mi
29328 Leopard Wood Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,569	$2.02	1d	1	0.80mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1874	$3,300	$1.76	3d	1	0.81mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA	5.0	3.0	1873	$3,300	$1.76	114d	1	0.81mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	155d	1	0.82mi
29439 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	1858	$3,709	$2.00	51d	1	0.85mi
29422 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,419	$1.93	35d	1	0.86mi
29422 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	91d	1	0.86mi
29428 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,399	$2.00	88d	1	0.86mi
29428 Walnut Tree Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.86mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,379	$1.91	37d	1	0.87mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,469	$1.96	122d	1	0.87mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	131d	1	0.87mi
29394 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	3.0	929	$3,809	$4.10	0d	1	0.89mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	161d	1	0.89mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,379	$1.99	138d	1	0.89mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	161d	1	0.90mi
29865 Incense Ct Menifee, CA	5.0	3.0	2824	$3,800	$1.35	6d	1	0.90mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$7,500	$2.87	116d	1	0.92mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$6,000	$2.29	12d	1	0.92mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA	4.0	3.5	2617	$6,000	$2.29	0d	1	0.92mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address shown as Plan 2325 Modeled Plan, Winchester CA 92596
• Financial info: List price available (details provided in listing)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Plan 2325 ModeledLocated in Winchester, CA
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Model home
• Exterior features: New construction plan homeLiving area approximately 2325

Interior

• Kitchen: Model kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (model plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (details not provided)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $542,990 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $542,990 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $542,990 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $542,990 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $542,990 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $542,990 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $542,990 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $542,990 Active 210 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $542,990 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $542,990 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $542,990 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $542,990 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $542,990 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $542,990 Active 204 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $542,990 Active 203 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $542,990 Active 202 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $542,990 Active 201 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $542,990 Active 200 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $542,990 Active 199 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $542,990 Active 198 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $542,990 Active 197 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $542,990 Active 196 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $542,990 Active 195 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $542,990 Active 194 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $542,990 Active 193 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $542,990 Active 192 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $542,990 Active 191 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $542,990 Active 190 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $542,990 Active 189 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $542,990 Active 188 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $542,990 Active 187 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $542,990 Active 186 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $542,990 Active 185 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $542,990 Active 184 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $542,990 Active 183 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $542,990 Active 182 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $542,990 Active 181 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    price $542,990 Active 180 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $562,990 Active 180 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $562,990 Active 179 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $562,990 Active 178 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $562,990 Active 177 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $562,990 Active 176 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $562,990 Active 174 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $562,990 Active 173 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $562,990 Active 172 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $562,990 Active 171 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $562,990 Active 170 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $562,990 Active 169 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $562,990 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,772
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,629
• − Property taxes: −$9,541
• − Insurance: −$3,180
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,902
• − Management: −$3,902
• − Depreciation: −$18,503
• Taxable loss: −$25,884
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,212
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,005/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,625–$34,875 screening

This home is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winchester Elementary Middle Rancho Viejo Middle F CA #277/498 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Tahquitz High F CA #777/1,170 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

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Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address shown as Plan 2325 Modeled Plan, Winchester CA 92596
• Financial info: List price available (details provided in listing)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Plan 2325 ModeledLocated in Winchester, CA
• Construction: New construction (2026 listing)Model home
• Exterior features: New construction plan homeLiving area approximately 2325

Interior

• Kitchen: Model kitchen (details not provided)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open living area (model plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (details not provided)