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Plan 2325 Modeled Plan 🏗️ New Construction
D- Composite 36.57
Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Appreciation +10.0/10.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Cash flow +5.9/30.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • Schools +2.6/10.0
  • Livability +2.6/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.3/5.0
  • 1% rule +1.3/10.0
  • DSCR +0.3/10.0

$562,990

Plan 2325 Modeled Plan · Winchester, CA 92596
5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,325 sqft · SingleFamily · 126 Days on market
Good condition 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

* Downstairs bedroom with full bath * Walk-in shower at primary bath and bath 3 * Covered back patio * Satin nickel interior door hardware with antimicrobial technology * Thermofoil cabinets with brushed satin nickel knobs * Stainless steel appliances * Kitchen island * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Solar energy system * Smart thermostat * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Planned swimming pool * Close to medical facilities * Near entertainment and leisure * Outdoor recreation nearby * Close to family friendly parks * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

  • Solar energy system
  • Thermofoil cabinets
  • Covered back patio

Tags

COVERED BACK PATIOWALK-IN SHOWERTHERMOFOIL CABINETSSTAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCESKITCHEN ISLANDSOLAR ENERGY SYSTEM

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $562,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $636,578.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $563k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $458k (18.7% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $401k (28.8% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $401k (28.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
  • Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
  • Zoned schools: Winchester Elementary (683 students, 79% FRL); Rancho Viejo Middle (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 975 students, 88% FRL); Tahquitz High (math 14% / reading 42%, grade F, #777 of 1,170 statewide, top 67%, 1,727 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 66% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 404 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 28d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 49% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • In year one you build about $68k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
  • Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$109k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($495k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $400,633 (28.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.63%
Cap rate
3.97%
Cash-on-cash
-8.31%
DSCR
0.63
GRM
13.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$636,578
List price
$562,990
Delta
-11.56%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
30613 Corte Hermoso 0.45mi 5/3.0 2,311 (-1%) 3mo $649,990 $281 76
30678 Expedition 0.20mi 4/3.5 (-1) 2,428 (+4%) 1mo $717,000 $295 76
30689 Via Del Cielo 0.48mi 5/3.0 2,311 (-1%) 1mo $654,990 $283 76
30653 Via Del Cielo 0.48mi 5/3.0 2,311 (-1%) 1mo $652,150 $282 75
30605 Via Del Cielo 0.49mi 5/3.0 2,311 (-1%) 2mo $639,990 $277 74
30701 Via Del Cielo 0.48mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,259 (-3%) 1mo $659,990 $292 67
30641 Via Del Cielo 0.49mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,259 (-3%) 2mo $652,990 $289 66
30612 Corte Hermoso 0.48mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,259 (-3%) 2mo $632,260 $280 66
30563 Via Del Cielo 0.51mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,259 (-3%) 3mo $627,590 $278 64
30538 Via Del Cielo 0.55mi 4/3.0 (-1) 2,259 (-3%) 2mo $622,990 $276 63
28804 Camino La Brisa 0.48mi 5/3.0 2,537 (+9%) 1mo $693,785 $273 61
30574 Via Del Cielo 0.53mi 5/3.0 2,537 (+9%) 2mo $689,990 $272 58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
17.7%
Equity multiple
2.44×
Total profit
$256,407
Equity at exit
$573,480
10-year hold
IRR
16.1%
Equity multiple
5.47×
Total profit
$795,992
Equity at exit
$1,236,731

Cash invested: $178,242 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
State California
18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
71 active · 28 under contract
Months of supply
8.4 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$642,990 ($276/sqft)
Median days on market
56 d
This list price
7% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
-0.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 92596

Home prices YoY
3.9%
Rents YoY
-0.8%
Active inventory
404
Price-to-rent
11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$4,006 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$3,338
Tax est. 1.5%
$796 /mo · $9,549/yr
Insurance
$265
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$841
Net cashflow
$-1,234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,569
Max offer price $457,981
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-794 -5% $-1,014 +0% $-1,234 +5% $-1,454 +10% $-1,674
Rent -10% $-1,551 -5% $-1,392 +0% $-1,234 +5% $-1,076 +10% $-918
Rate -1.0pp $-914 -0.5pp $-1,072 base $-1,234 +0.5pp $-1,399 +1.0pp $-1,567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$159,145
Closing costs
$19,097
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 39 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
30851 Le Baron Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1835 $3,395 $1.85 2d 1 0.38mi
31880 Corte Avila Menifee, CA 5.0 3.5 3056 $3,950 $1.29 67d 1 0.41mi
28872 Camino Santiago Unit MAIN HOME Winchester, CA 4.0 3.0 2446 $3,595 $1.47 60d 1 0.42mi
28841 Cutlass St Winchester, CA 5.0 3.0 2391 $3,395 $1.42 22d 1 0.44mi
30913 Chuckwagon Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 3.0 2474 $3,395 $1.37 40d 1 0.54mi
28635 Matador Rd Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1775 $2,995 $1.69 22d 1 0.62mi
30540 Altima Ct Winchester, CA 5.0 3.0 1873 $3,300 $1.76 22d 1 0.81mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA 4.0 2.0 1754 $3,100 $1.77 64d 1 0.82mi
29423 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1771 $3,469 $1.96 31d 1 0.87mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1699 $3,349 $1.97 39d 1 0.87mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1771 $3,459 $1.95 69d 1 0.89mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1699 $3,379 $1.99 46d 1 0.89mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1699 $3,349 $1.97 69d 1 0.90mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA 4.0 3.5 2617 $7,500 $2.87 24d 1 0.92mi
31097 Linden Flower Rd Winchester, CA 4.0 3.5 2617 $6,975 $2.67 2d 1 0.92mi
29466 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1771 $3,469 $1.96 23d 1 0.92mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1699 $3,349 $1.97 69d 1 0.92mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1771 $3,429 $1.94 69d 1 0.93mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1699 $3,349 $1.97 57d 1 0.95mi
29469 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1771 $3,469 $1.96 7d 1 0.96mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1699 $3,269 $1.92 93d 1 0.96mi
29587 Fortitude Dr Menifee, CA 4.0 3.5 2623 $3,800 $1.45 2d 1 0.98mi
29662 Courage Ct Menifee, CA 4.0 2.5 2399 $3,500 $1.46 27d 1 1.13mi
30045 Sunset Pier Dr Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2198 $3,300 $1.50 16d 1 1.14mi
30045 Sunset Pier Dr Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2207 $3,300 $1.50 13d 1 1.14mi
29565 Tulipwood St Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2360 $3,500 $1.48 67d 1 1.15mi
30183 Sunset Pier Dr Menifee, CA 5.0 3.0 2223 $3,395 $1.53 7d 1 1.23mi
29964 Ballast Rd Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2443 $3,500 $1.43 52d 1 1.24mi
29949 Ballast Rd Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2443 $3,399 $1.39 18d 1 1.27mi
29949 Ballast Rd Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2443 $3,399 $1.39 15d 1 1.27mi
29141 Salrio Dr Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2249 $3,195 $1.42 7d 1 1.33mi
29391 Owl Creek Ct Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2828 $3,295 $1.17 9d 1 1.34mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA 4.0 2.5 1823 $3,195 $1.75 51d 1 1.35mi
29406 Grande Vista Ave Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2152 $3,350 $1.56 52d 1 1.36mi
29359 Milford Ct Menifee, CA 4.0 2.5 2828 $3,299 $1.17 15d 1 1.37mi
29359 Milford Ct Menifee, CA 4.0 2.5 2828 $3,299 $1.17 13d 1 1.37mi
29291 Grande Vista Ave Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2606 $3,050 $1.17 2d 1 1.42mi
30153 Bristol Gate Ln Menifee, CA 4.0 3.0 2785 $3,595 $1.29 48d 1 1.47mi
29335 Adams St Winchester, CA 4.0 3.0 2419 $3,500 $1.45 93d 1 1.48mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Address shown as Plan 2325 Modeled Plan, Winchester CA 92596
Financial info
List price available (details provided in listing)

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
Home design
Plan 2325 ModeledLocated in Winchester, CA
Construction
New construction (2026 listing)Model home
Exterior features
New construction plan homeLiving area approximately 2325

Interior

Kitchen
Model kitchen (details not provided)
Bedrooms
5 bedrooms
Bathrooms
3 full bathrooms
Interior features
Open living area (model plan)
Laundry & utility
Laundry area (details not provided)

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $562,990 Active 126 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $562,990 Active 124 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $562,990 Active 123 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $562,990 Active 122 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    pricedays on market $562,990 Active 121 DOM
  6. 2026-07-31
    days on market $557,990 Active 118 DOM
  7. 2026-07-30
    days on market $557,990 Active 117 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $557,990 Active 116 DOM
  9. 2026-07-28
    days on market $557,990 Active 115 DOM
  10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $557,990 Active 113 DOM
  11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $557,990 Active 111 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $557,990 Active 110 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $557,990 Active 109 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $557,990 Active 108 DOM
  15. 2026-07-20
    pricedays on market $557,990 Active 107 DOM
  16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $555,990 Active 105 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $555,990 Active 104 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $555,990 Active 103 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $555,990 Active 102 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $555,990 Active 101 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $555,990 Active 100 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $555,990 Active 99 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $555,990 Active 98 DOM
  24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $550,990 Active 97 DOM
  25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $550,990 Active 96 DOM
  26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $550,990 Active 94 DOM
  27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $550,990 Active 93 DOM
  28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $550,990 Active 92 DOM
  29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $550,990 Active 91 DOM
  30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $550,990 Active 90 DOM
  31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $550,990 Active 89 DOM
  32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $550,990 Active 88 DOM
  33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $550,990 Active 87 DOM
  34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $550,990 Active 86 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $550,990 Active 85 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $550,990 Active 84 DOM
  37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $550,990 Active 83 DOM
  38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $550,990 Active 81 DOM
  39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $550,990 Active 79 DOM
  40. 2026-06-21
    pricedays on market $550,990 Active 78 DOM
  41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $548,990 Active 75 DOM
  42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $548,990 Active 74 DOM
  43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $548,990 Active 73 DOM
  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $548,990 Active 72 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $548,990 Active 70 DOM
  46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $544,990 Active 66 DOM
  47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $544,990 Active 65 DOM
  48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $544,990 Active 64 DOM
  49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $544,990 Active 61 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $544,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
  • 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

Loading sold comps map…

Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$48,076
− Mortgage interest
−$35,658
− Property taxes
−$9,549
− Insurance
−$3,183
− Repairs & maintenance
−$3,846
− Management
−$3,846
− Depreciation
−$18,519
Taxable loss
−$26,525
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$6,366
After-tax cash flow
$-8,445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $11,625–$34,875 screening

This home is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
  • Both Smart home integration — Enhances convenience and adds value

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Winchester Elementary Middle Rancho Viejo Middle F CA #277/498 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Tahquitz High F CA #777/1,170 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Hemet Unified
NCES district ID
0616920
Math proficiency
19% ▼ -3.00%
Reading proficiency
41% ▲ 4.00%
Median HH income
$39,962
Composite
25.16/100
National rank
#7517
State rank
#360 of 517 in CA
D Composite livability gradescore 52/100

Livability — Winchester

Score
52/100
State rank
#992
US rank
#24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Riverside County · 2,664,475 people
City population
38,981
Metro
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Population (ZIP)
38,981
Household income
$132,538
Rent vs Own
16.1% rent · 83.9% own
Severe rent burden
19% of renters

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
2,664,475 people
By 2030
2,802,692 · +5.2%
By 2040
3,050,904 · +14.5%
By 2050
3,256,783 · +22.2%
By 2075
3,655,058 · +37.2%
By 2100
3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
Race & ethnicity
White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 29%
Common ancestry
Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
Foreign-born
14% · Canada, Vietnam
Languages at home
76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

2024 margin
Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
-3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
All cycles
2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

Civics

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…