233 Renegade Rd · Robinson Mill, CA 95966

$150,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 419 Days on market

Built 1975 3.27 ac lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

VIEWS and PRIVACY are a couple of the best features of 233 Renegade Rd. This 3.27 acre property is located at the end of a road and features a spectacular view of the valley and the Sutter Buttes! There are several large, terraced pads that sit above the home. The view of the sunsets from these pads is amazing! The home on this property is a 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, 1975 manufactured home that features an additional bedroom and bathroom that has been added onto it. The property has 2 wells and numerous sheds and outbuildings. The peaceful setting of this property is one that you have to experience in person to truly appreciate. Call your favorite Realtor to make an appointment to view this un

Key facts

• Numerous sheds
• Large terraced pads
• Outbuildings

Tags

• LARGE TERRACED PADS
• 2 WELLS
• NUMEROUS SHEDS
• OUTBUILDINGS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: MR
• HOA & community: Neighborhood characterized by mountainous and foothill terrain

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic (type unknown)
• Home design: Single-story (1 story); No common walls; No ADU
• Construction: Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Manufactured house; No pool; Property has a view; Lot density 2–5 units per acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level, including a primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heating via fireplace; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Entry located off the laundry room; Main level has 3 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms; Primary bedroom with attached primary bathroom; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 35/100 on livability (#1,438 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.01%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $271
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $31,959
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$188 /mo · $2,250/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$378
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $150,000 Active 419 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 418 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 417 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 416 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 415 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 413 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 412 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 410 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 409 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 408 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 407 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 403 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 402 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 401 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 400 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 399 DOM
17. 2026-04-29
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2025-06-26
    price $175,000
19. 2025-04-26
    listed $184,000 Active
20. 2025-02-10
    historical
21. 2024-11-23
    listed $184,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 2 d/yr ≥98°F today · 5 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 32 unhealthy d/yr today · 39 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,601
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,250
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,728
• − Management: −$1,728
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $2,379
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$571
• After-tax cash flow: $4,055/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Robinson Mill

• Score: 35/100
• State rank: #1438
• US rank: #27737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2025-04-26 Listed $184,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-10 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2024-11-23 Listed $184,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $81 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.