121 Estrella · Tustin, CA 92780

$365,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,539 sqft · Manufactured · 7 Days on market

Built 2019 6.30 ac lot Est $308k · 19% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your DREAM HOME! This stunning home offers the perfect blend of modern high-end features, comfort, and convenience. The home is located inside Saddleback Mobilodge in Tustin, a top ranked 55+ senior community in Orange County. It is on a desirable inner lot location. The home has an open floor plan and is spacious with over 1500 square feet. We are confident in saying that this home has more upgrades than any other new or newer manufactured home that you have seen. Just a few include: Two coffered ceilings with can lights. One in the living room and the other in the kitchen. Skylights in both bathrooms Water-proof luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout A gas fireplace in the

Key facts

• Coffered ceilings
• Dual ovens
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• COFFERED CEILINGS
• SKYLIGHTS IN BATHROOMS
• GAS FIREPLACE
• LARGE PANTRY
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DUAL OVENS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease of $1,285
• HOA & community: Senior community; Community amenities include pool, spa, billiard room and other clubhouse facilities; Association-managed amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Saddleback Mobile Lodge
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water
• Home design: Single-story; Entry on level 1; Mobile home (27 ft by 57 ft) — mobile home remains
• Construction: Year built: seller-provided
• Exterior features: Association pool; Front yard; Street lighting and sidewalks

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Association spa; Den
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $365k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $341k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $341k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.9% in Tustin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#215 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, commute B; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• Tustin Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #91 of 517 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.1%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($101k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $340,773 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.99%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,800
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
78 Consuelo	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,470 (-4%)	16mo	$347,000	$236	75
33 Estrella	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,416 (-8%)	8mo	$282,500	$200	74
118 Estrella	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,350 (-12%)	7mo	$148,000	$110	74
99 La Ronda	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,400 (-9%)	9mo	$168,000	$120	72
37 Estrella	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-6%)	13mo	$325,000	$226	70
28 Rancho Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-13%)	2mo	$280,000	$208	66
115 Sonora Ln #126	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-2%)	17mo	$165,000	$110	65
51 Rancho Rd #51	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (-3%)	22mo	$346,000	$233	64
61 Saddleback Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-13%)	5mo	$290,000	$216	64
129 S Colombo Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,356 (-12%)	5mo	$219,000	$162	58
31 Rancho Rd	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,368 (-11%)	21mo	$180,000	$132	57
129 Portola #129	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-13%)	22mo	$165,000	$123	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-44,405
• Equity at exit: $54,423

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-8,242
• Equity at exit: $31,559

Cash invested: $102,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92780

• Rents YoY: 4.1%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,914
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$456 /mo · $5,475/yr
• Insurance: −$152
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,193

Max offer price $365,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $422	-5% $296	+0% $170	+5% $44	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-100	-5% $35	+0% $170	+5% $304	+10% $439
Rate	-1.0pp $353	-0.5pp $263	base $170	+0.5pp $75	+1.0pp $-21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $91,250
• Closing costs: $10,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 S Zoo Ln Santa Ana, CA	3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$4,526	$4.73	2d	27	0.26mi
15502 Williams St Apt N Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1620	$3,650	$2.25	21d	1	0.27mi
16586 Montego Way Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1188	$3,900	$3.28	44d	1	0.30mi
1901 E 1st St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1267	$4,467	$3.53	3d	16	0.40mi
2112 E 1st St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,135	$2.27	16d	1	0.41mi
15701 Tustin Village Way Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1062	$2,850	$2.68	16d	1	0.47mi
15701 Tustin Village Way Unit A-12 Tustin, CA	2.0	1.0	1062	$2,850	$2.68	25d	1	0.47mi
15742 Williams St Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,798	$2.54	3d	1	0.49mi
17045 Medallion Ave Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1200	$3,100	$2.58	44d	1	0.68mi
500 W 3rd St Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$4,500	$2.57	44d	1	0.78mi
1710 E Fruit St Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$4,200	$2.10	25d	1	0.80mi
15621 California St Tustin, CA	1.0	1.0	1875	$1,349	$0.72	22d	1	0.81mi
17200 McFadden Ave Unit 06A Tustin, CA	2.0	1.5	1230	$3,195	$2.60	25d	1	0.92mi
15722 S B St Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1200	$3,050	$2.54	25d	1	0.96mi
14802 Newport Ave Unit 5A Tustin, CA	2.0	2.0	1258	$3,000	$2.38	3d	1	1.10mi
14300 Newport Ave Tustin, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	943	$3,130	$3.32	2d	11	1.10mi
1120 Sycamore Ave #1 Tustin, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,495	$2.69	25d	1	1.14mi
909 Brown St Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1354	$4,200	$3.10	44d	1	1.19mi
1600 Mabury St Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1480	$3,595	$2.43	44d	1	1.22mi
324 E Walnut St Santa Ana, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$4,500	$3.21	44d	1	1.28mi
210 N Spurgeon St Santa Ana, CA	1.0	1.5	1536	$3,595	$2.34	44d	1	1.42mi
1920 Sherry Ln Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	1080	$2,995	$2.77	25d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $365,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $365,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $365,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $365,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $365,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $365,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,893
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,446
• − Property taxes: −$5,475
• − Insurance: −$1,825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,271
• − Management: −$3,271
• − Depreciation: −$10,618
• Taxable loss: −$4,014
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$963
• After-tax cash flow: $2,999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tustin Unified
• NCES district ID: 0640150
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $81,864
• Composite: 50.32/100
• National rank: #1880
• State rank: #91 of 517 in CA

Livability — Tustin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #215
• US rank: #6806

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tustin, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 84,447
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 54,374
• Household income: $101,017
• Rent vs Own: 55.9% rent · 44.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3031.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 27% Two or more races 16% Asian 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -924.13%
• Current HPI: 482.9143
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.12%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $365,000 CRMLS