4811 Altair Rd · Montrose, VA 23231

$279,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1962 9,770 sqft lot $146/sqft · 15% below area Est $331k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this warm and inviting split foyer with space for everyone to spread out, gather, and enjoy their own little retreat. Inside, you will find fresh paint, newer windows, a newer half bath, and a new gas stove in the kitchen. The main level offers a comfortable gathering space, while the lower level gives you even more flexibility with a half bath, a 4th bedroom or oversized bonus room, plus a second large room that could be sectioned off for additional use. The utility room adds extra function, and the outside entrance makes access to the backyard easy. Outside, the home has been nicely landscaped and offers a good-sized private backyard with plenty of room to enjoy. The large

Key facts

• 9,770 sq ft lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 37 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street oversized parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Two-story home; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding and mixed construction (block, frame, drywall); Composition shingle roof; Approximate year built
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Deck; Partial backyard fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas stove; Range hood; Gas cooking
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor with new LVP flooring and fresh paint; Additional room in lower level that could serve as a fourth bedroom (great room)
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring in several rooms; Vinyl flooring; Concrete
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom with tub and shower on the first floor; One half-bath located in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Dining area; Laminate counters; Main-level primary; Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Large utility/laundry room in the lower level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-269 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (33.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (33.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#129 in VA, #4,169 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Henrico County Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #68 of 131 in VA (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 186 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,826 units permitted in Henrico County in 2024 (785 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henrico County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $280k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,266 (33.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.11%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,245
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -15.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4805 Altair Rd	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,920 (0%)	10mo	$325,000	$169	86
4501 Mizar Rd	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,920 (0%)	1mo	$338,000	$176	70
4511 Mizar Rd	0.39mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,920 (0%)	2mo	$345,000	$180	67
4820 Wall Ave	0.40mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,950 (+2%)	17mo	$381,000	$195	51
4304 Hillbrook Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,938 (+1%)	13mo	$320,000	$165	46
3004 Emporia St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-4%)	12mo	$345,000	$187	46
3004 Emporia St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (-4%)	12mo	$345,000	$187	46
4914 Wall Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,664 (-13%)	14mo	$340,000	$204	42
4504 Mizar Rd	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,190 (+14%)	10mo	$300,000	$137	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-66,124
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.20×
• Total profit: $-94,060
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23231

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,863 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,868/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $-269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,203

Max offer price $232,443

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $279,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $279,900 Active 986-char remark
15. 2026-05-08
    historical $279,900 986-char remark
16. 2025-11-30
    historical
17. 2025-11-13
    price $254,900
18. 2025-09-15
    price $269,900
19. 2025-09-03
    price $274,900
20. 2025-08-16
    price $279,900
21. 2025-08-15
    listed $279,000 Active
22. 2025-06-12
    historical
23. 2025-05-27
    listed $284,999 Active
24. 1986-10-01
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,295 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: +$427/yr (+$36/mo · 22.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$1,868
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,788
• − Management: −$1,788
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,995
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,228/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henrico County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101890
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $61,854
• Composite: 49.25/100
• National rank: #2031
• State rank: #68 of 131 in VA

Livability — Montrose

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #129
• US rank: #4169

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montrose, VA
• County: Henrico County · 334,490 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,544
• Household income: $76,505
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1555.0

Population outlook (Henrico County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,885 people
• By 2030: 384,255 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 416,688 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 442,376 · +20.9%
• By 2075: 488,037 · +33.4%
• By 2100: 487,430 · +33.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henrico

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.9) · D 63.7% · R 34.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.9 2020: D+29.0 2016: D+21.0 2012: D+11.7 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -207.28%
• Current HPI: 315.8154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+399.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $279,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-05-08 Coming Soon $279,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-11-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-13 Price Changed $254,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $269,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $274,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-08-16 Price Changed $279,900 CVRMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $279,000 CVRMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $284,999 CVRMLS
• 1986-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,868 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.