Ramsey Plan · East Milton, FL 32583

$279,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,667 sqft · SingleFamily · 573 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 573 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 5466 Horizons Edge, Milton FL 32583
• Financial info: List price available

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan named Ramsey
• Construction: New construction (plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1,667

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Active new construction plan (Ramsey)

🏗️ New construction. The $279,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,060.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (4.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (16.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 573 days — a 12% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $232,819 (16.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 573 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.36%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.35%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $300,060
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7752 Sea Level Dr Lot 8F	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	2mo	$279,990	$164	91
5341 Horizons Edge Ln Lot 5G	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	0mo	$292,509	$171	90
5356 Horizons Edge Ln Lot 24A	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,707 (+2%)	3mo	$274,490	$161	89
5315 Hidden Pines Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,634 (-2%)	1mo	$331,900	$203	75
5368 Horizons Edge Ln Lot 21A	0.07mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	3mo	$265,190	$180	70
5275 Hidden Pines Cir	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+9%)	3mo	$317,900	$175	69
7768 Three Mile View Dr Lot 6G	0.13mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,474 (-12%)	2mo	$264,990	$180	68
5327 Hidden Pines Cir	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+9%)	1mo	$321,707	$177	67
5338 Hidden Pines Cir	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,820 (+9%)	1mo	$326,707	$180	66
7633 Small Pines St	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,810 (+9%)	1mo	$327,231	$181	66
5307 Hidden Pines Cir	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-8%)	2mo	$312,000	$204	64
7684 Pine Bark St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,901 (+14%)	2mo	$385,648	$203	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-59,876
• Equity at exit: $44,740

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,813
• Equity at exit: $25,944

Cash invested: $84,017 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,574
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$375 /mo · $4,501/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-234

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,625

Max offer price $266,146

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-131	+0% $-234	+5% $-338	+10% $-442
Rent	-10% $-418	-5% $-326	+0% $-234	+5% $-142	+10% $-50
Rate	-1.0pp $-83	-0.5pp $-158	base $-234	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-391

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,015
• Closing costs: $9,002
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8057 Fir Tree Dr Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2107	$2,400	$1.14	24d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 573 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 572 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 571 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 570 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,990 Active 568 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,990 Active 565 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 564 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 563 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 562 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 559 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 558 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,990 Active 557 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 556 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 555 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $279,990 Active 554 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,938
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,808
• − Property taxes: −$4,501
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − Depreciation: −$8,729
• Taxable loss: −$8,070
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,937
• After-tax cash flow: $-876/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B