14616 Pearl Ave · Clearlake, CA 95422

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Land · 170 Days on market

Built 1994 5,227 sqft lot $106/sqft · 13% below area Est $189k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.2/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Carpenter Special! 3 bed 2ba, with a fenced yard, open floor plan, on an improving street in the city of Clearlake, near shopping, schools, parks, mass transit, lake access nearby for fishing, swimming, kayaking, hiking, biking, sailing, water sports of every kind. Needs a little TLC not much mostly cosmetic.

Key facts

• Near schools
• Open floor plan
• Fenced yard

Tags

• FENCED YARD
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LAKE ACCESS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR PARKS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $370 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 3.8% in Clearlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#549 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Konocti Unified (town): math 9% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #494 of 517 in CA (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $34k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.62%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,000
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -12.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-3,140
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $27,663
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95422

• Home prices YoY: -33.4%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,864 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,017/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$391
• Net cashflow: $370

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,395

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14087 Lakeshore Dr Clearlake, CA	3.0	3.0	1815	$2,500	$1.38	43d	1	0.66mi
14083 Lakeshore Dr Clearlake, CA	2.0	2.0	1076	$1,450	$1.35	21d	1	0.70mi
5935 Old Highway 53 Spc 32 MH (Park Owned) Clearlake, CA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.93mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 170 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 169 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 168 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 167 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 166 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 164 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 163 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 153 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 152 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 151 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 150 DOM
17. 2026-02-14
    price $165,000 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Carpenter Special! 3 bed 2ba, with a fenced yard, open floor plan, on an improving street in the city of Clearlake, near shopping, schools, parks, mass transit, lake access nearby for fishing, swimming, kayaking, hiking, biking, sailing, water sports of every kind. Needs a little TLC not much mostly cosmetic.

18. 2026-01-26
    price $179,000 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Carpenter Special! 3 bed 2ba, with a fenced yard, open floor plan, on an improving street in the city of Clearlake, near shopping, schools, parks, mass transit, lake access nearby for fishing, swimming, kayaking, hiking, biking, sailing, water sports of every kind. Needs a little TLC not much mostly cosmetic.

19. 2025-12-31
    listed $199,000 Active 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Carpenter Special! 3 bed 2ba, with a fenced yard, open floor plan, on an improving street in the city of Clearlake, near shopping, schools, parks, mass transit, lake access nearby for fishing, swimming, kayaking, hiking, biking, sailing, water sports of every kind. Needs a little TLC not much mostly cosmetic.

20. 2025-12-08
    historical
21. 2025-11-25
    price $199,000
22. 2025-09-10
    price $205,000
23. 2025-07-08
    listed $225,000 Active
24. 2025-06-18
    historical
25. 2023-11-01
    soldstatus $145,000 Closed Sale
26. 2023-11-01
    soldstatus $145,000
27. 2023-09-30
    historical Active Under Contract
28. 2023-07-13
    price $159,000
29. 2023-06-18
    listed $175,000 Active
30. 2004-11-01
    historical
31. 2004-11-01
    soldstatus $139,000
32. 2004-11-01
    soldstatus $139,000
33. 2004-06-21
    listed $149,500
34. 2004-03-13
    listed $149,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,017 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,017 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,017
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,789
• − Management: −$1,789
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $1,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $3,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Konocti Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620070
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $30,026
• Composite: 11.81/100
• National rank: #9677
• State rank: #494 of 517 in CA

Livability — Clearlake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #18284

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,101

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.47%
• Current HPI: 248.654
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+10.4% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $165,000 CRMLS
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $179,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $205,000 CRMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $225,000 CRMLS
• 2025-06-18 Coming Soon — CRMLS
• 2023-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-01 Sold (MLS) $145,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-30 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-07-13 Price Changed $159,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-18 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 2004-11-01 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2004-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2004-11-01 Sold (MLS) $139,000 CRMLS
• 2004-06-21 Listed $149,500 CRMLS
• 2004-03-13 Listed $149,500 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,017 · +12.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.