322 Barrister Ct · Bel Air South, MD 21015

$303,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,544 sqft · Townhouse public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1988 2,221 sqft lot Est $324k · 6% under $118/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained townhome in Bel Air South! Three bedrooms, one and a half baths. Full bath has soaking tub and separate shower. End unit, great deck for outdoor entertaining. Neutral berber carpet. Open floor plan on main living level. Recessed lights and ceiling fans. Short sale opportunity.

Key facts

• $118 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1988

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee covers trash, lawn maintenance, snow removal, and other services; HOA fee assessed monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with 2 spaces (total 2 garage/parking spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: End of row townhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in good condition; Not in a federal flood zone
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composite roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Exterior lighting; Deck(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate plank
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the upper level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric heating and cooling
• Interior features: Traditional floor plan with a dining area and kitchen efficiency; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Partially finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric hot water

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($19/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (14.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (14.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 53% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 31y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $177k; list at $304k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,937 (14.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $324,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
308 Althea Ct	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,612 (+4%)	1mo	$390,000	$242	81
318 Cinnabar Ln	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,412 (-8%)	2mo	$350,000	$248	69
311 Tiree Ct #401	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,427 (-8%)	3mo	$300,000	$210	46
400-D Hazelnut Ct Unit D	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,400 (-9%)	2mo	$222,500	$159	42
303 Tiree Ct #302	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,421 (-8%)	8mo	$290,000	$204	41
209 Hunters Run Ter	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,360 (-12%)	8mo	$330,000	$243	41
301 Tiree Ct #303	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-13%)	5mo	$260,000	$194	36
234 Hunters Run Ter	0.69mi	3/3.0	1,360 (-12%)	8mo	$370,000	$272	35
226 Hunters Run Ter	0.67mi	3/3.5	1,360 (-12%)	8mo	$350,000	$257	34
311 Tiree Ct #204	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-13%)	6mo	$250,000	$187	33
309 Tiree Ct #203	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-13%)	4mo	$270,000	$201	33
311 Tiree Ct #104	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-13%)	9mo	$250,000	$187	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,898
• Equity at exit: $45,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-26,174
• Equity at exit: $26,276

Cash invested: $85,092 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,589 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,469/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$118
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $303,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $88	+0% $2	+5% $-84	+10% $-170
Rent	-10% $-203	-5% $-101	+0% $2	+5% $104	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $79	base $2	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,975
• Closing costs: $9,117
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
401 Darby Ln Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1930	$2,450	$1.27	24d	1	0.12mi
200 Foxhall Dr Bel Air, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,376	$2.57	2d	28	0.16mi
2202 N Tollgate Cir Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,400	$1.25	18d	1	0.16mi
442 Darby Ln Bel Air, MD	4.0	3.5	1442	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.20mi
300 Cinnabar Ln Bel Air, MD	3.0	3.5	1887	$2,600	$1.38	44d	1	0.26mi
321 Russo Way Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.5–2.0	1199	$2,459	$2.05	2d	16	0.29mi
43 Oak Crest Ct Bel Air, MD	4.0	3.5	1900	$2,695	$1.42	44d	1	0.64mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	44d	1	0.87mi
569 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2040	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.91mi
546 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,350	$1.55	44d	1	0.92mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	1.05mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	1.08mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	1.13mi
158 Glen View Ter Abingdon, MD	2.0	2.5	1176	$1,995	$1.70	18d	1	1.39mi
493 Ashton Ln Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,250	$1.28	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $118 · $1,416/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $303,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $303,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $303,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $303,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 553-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $303,900 Active 29 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$422/yr (+$35/mo · 17.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,072
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,023
• − Property taxes: −$2,469
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − HOA: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$8,841
• Taxable loss: −$5,167
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,240
• After-tax cash flow: $1,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+224.2% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $303,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-14 Coming Soon $303,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $177,000 Public Records
• 2010-06-06 Sold (MLS) $177,000 MRIS
• 2010-06-06 Sold (MLS) $177,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-21 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-04-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-04-08 Price Changed $174,900 MRIS
• 2010-03-29 Price Changed $189,900 MRIS
• 2010-03-05 Price Changed $199,900 MRIS
• 2010-02-19 Listed $209,900 MRIS
• 2010-02-19 Listed $174,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-05-23 Sold (Public Records) $219,999 Public Records
• 2007-05-04 Sold (MLS) $219,999 MRIS
• 2007-03-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-11-07 Listed $219,999 MRIS
• 1995-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1995-11-17 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MRIS
• 1995-10-18 Delisted — MRIS
• 1995-02-22 Listed $98,900 MRIS
• 1993-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $93,745 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,469 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.