507 Wellons St · Suffolk, VA 23434

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1962 7,840 sqft lot Est $223k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Property is being sold in "as is" condition - Seller to make no repairs

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 6 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Driveway parking spaces
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Detached ranch; Single-story
• Construction: Crawl foundation
• Exterior features: Brick siding; Asphalt shingle roof; Approximately 0.18-acre lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom; Additional bedroom; Bedroom and full bathroom on first floor
• Flooring: Wood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heating; Window/wall cooling
• Interior features: Wood flooring; Living room; Great room; Dining room; Family room; Utility room
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($317/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.5% in Suffolk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#88 in VA, #2,896 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, commute F.
• Suffolk City Public School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #72 of 131 in VA (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillpoint Elementary (math 31% / reading 57%, grade F, #851 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 737 students, 65% FRL); Forest Glen Middle (math 39% / reading 67%, grade C+, #213 of 342 statewide, top 63%, 426 students, 63% FRL); Lakeland High (math 33% / reading 77%, grade C, #279 of 319 statewide, top 88%, 1,083 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 39% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 546 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 680 units permitted in Suffolk city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $161,240 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 Brook Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,000 (0%)	4mo	$209,000	$209	80
711 Brook Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,056 (+6%)	2mo	$192,000	$182	78
515 Battery Ave	0.07mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+12%)	4mo	$250,000	$223	71
117 Bute St	0.74mi	3/1.0	999 (-0%)	1mo	$152,000	$152	65
208 Wellons St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,057 (+6%)	3mo	$68,000	$64	62
608 Battery Ave	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+15%)	2mo	$279,999	$243	60
116 Woodrow Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,100 (+10%)	2mo	$257,000	$234	56
731 Brook Ave	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+15%)	3mo	$279,999	$243	54
604 County St	0.71mi	3/2.0	966 (-3%)	5mo	$210,000	$217	53
729 Brook Ave	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+15%)	3mo	$279,999	$243	53
318 Hunter St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,125 (+12%)	1mo	$175,000	$156	42
627 Spruce St	0.62mi	3/2.5	1,150 (+15%)	3mo	$278,500	$242	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-26,045
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-139
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23434

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 546
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,382/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,579

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $83	+0% $26	+5% $-30	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $-37	+0% $26	+5% $90	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $77	base $26	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-78

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
410 Bosley Ave Unit B Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	12d	1	0.33mi
308 Saint James Ave Unit B Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0	936	$1,295	$1.38	25d	1	0.33mi
310 Greenfield Cres Suffolk, VA	3.0	2.0	1146	$1,995	$1.74	45d	1	0.47mi
114 Nancy Dr Suffolk, VA	2.0–3.0	1.0	860	$1,450	$1.69	3d	4	0.64mi
210 Baker St Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	988	$1,600	$1.62	45d	1	0.65mi
806 W Washington St Unit 112 Suffolk, VA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,325	$1.47	19d	1	0.72mi
558 1st Ave Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.74mi
564 1st Ave Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.74mi
181 N Main St Suffolk, VA	2.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,885	$2.34	3d	15	0.79mi
116 Franklin St Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,750	$1.31	25d	1	0.81mi
116 Franklin St Unit 3 Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	1335	$1,750	$1.31	45d	1	0.81mi
326 E Washington St Suffolk, VA	2.0	2.0	839	$1,629	$1.94	5d	1	0.87mi
307 Central Ave Suffolk, VA	3.0	1.0	840	$1,700	$2.02	45d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 71-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $200,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,382 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$258/yr (+$21/mo · 18.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,382
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,151
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$756
• After-tax cash flow: $1,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Suffolk City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103710
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -43.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $65,573
• Composite: 48.31/100
• National rank: #2151
• State rank: #72 of 131 in VA

Livability — Suffolk

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #2896

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living C Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Suffolk, VA
• County: Suffolk City · 88,108 people
• City population: 88,108
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 54,387
• Household income: $79,877
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,269 people
• By 2030: 98,269 · +3.1%
• By 2040: 103,177 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 105,777 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 110,963 · +16.5%
• By 2100: 103,711 · +8.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% White 41% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: D (+15.9) · D 57.4% · R 41.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.7pp toward D · 2008: 13.2pp · 2024: 15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.9 2020: D+17.3 2016: D+13.8 2012: D+15.1 2008: D+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.80%
• Current HPI: 158.5866
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.84%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $200,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,382 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.