628 San Mario Ct · College Station, TX 77845

$187,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 1983 4,129 sqft lot $184/sqft · 10% below area Est $263k · 29% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This well-located duplex offers outstanding potential for both new and seasoned investors. Please note it is ONE side only. The property features a spacious 3-bed, 2-bath. Positioned on the Texas A & M bus route, it’s perfectly suited for students and university staff seeking convenient access to campus. Inside, you’ll find comfortable, updated living spaces, generous layouts, outdoor areas to enjoy, and plenty of parking. Properties like this don’t come around often—reach out today to secure a strong, consistent income-producing asset in the heart of Aggieland.

Key facts

• Plenty of parking
• Generous layouts
• Outdoor areas

Tags

• TEXAS A & M BUS ROUTE
• UPDATED LIVING SPACES
• GENEROUS LAYOUTS
• OUTDOOR AREAS
• PLENTY OF PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-129 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $164k (12.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $151k (19.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $151k (19.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in College Station — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#11 in TX, #994 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, crime A-; Watch: employment C-.
• College Station ISD (urban): math 58% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #113 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 1168 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,211 units permitted in Brazos County in 2024 (768 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazos County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,652 (19.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.44%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,508
• List price: $187,000
• Delta: -28.76%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 San Saba Ct	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	950 (-6%)	19mo	$170,000	$179	58
1012 San Saba Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,144 (+13%)	18mo	$225,000	$197	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.13% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-38,294
• Equity at exit: $27,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-42,971
• Equity at exit: $16,168

Cash invested: $52,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77845

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 1168
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,507 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$981
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,332/yr
• Insurance: −$78
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$316
• Net cashflow: $-129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,670

Max offer price $164,176

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-76	+0% $-129	+5% $-182	+10% $-235
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-189	+0% $-129	+5% $-70	+10% $-10
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-82	base $-129	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,750
• Closing costs: $5,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
709 San Benito Dr College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	890	$1,195	$1.34	21d	1	0.10mi
714 San Benito Dr College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	910	$1,300	$1.43	14d	1	0.10mi
608 Navarro Dr Unit 1328096P College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	936	$2,991	$3.20	21d	1	0.15mi
805 San Benito Dr College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,300	$1.33	44d	1	0.18mi
804 San Saba Dr College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$1,150	$1.40	14d	1	0.19mi
2401 Welsh Ave College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	883	$925	$1.05	3d	1	0.32mi
2310 Pronghorn Ln College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,550	$1.15	14d	1	0.33mi
701 Balcones Dr Unit 51 College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,375	$1.11	44d	1	0.39mi
903 Balcones Dr Unit 3-B College Station, TX	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,250	$1.04	44d	1	0.42mi
511 Fraternity Row College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,800	$1.41	44d	1	0.44mi
2403 Bosque Dr Unit B College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	778	$900	$1.16	44d	1	0.45mi
2406 Blanco Dr Unit B College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$995	$1.24	44d	1	0.46mi
2406 Blanco Dr Unit B College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	21d	1	0.46mi
2400 Blanco Dr Unit D College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	777	$875	$1.13	21d	1	0.49mi
1112 Airline Dr College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,575	$1.57	14d	1	0.65mi
1112 Airline Dr College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	1256	$1,575	$1.25	21d	1	0.65mi
1218 Haley Pl College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$2,195	$1.55	14d	1	0.72mi
1326 Airline Dr College Station, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$1,450	$1.30	44d	1	0.84mi
1401 Airline Dr Unit B College Station, TX	2.0	1.5	958	$1,400	$1.46	44d	1	0.88mi
1524 Hawk Tree Dr College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,199	$1.41	21d	1	0.97mi
1806 Yellowhouse Cir College Station, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	710	$1,050	$1.48	14d	7	0.98mi
410 Baby Bear Dr College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1261	$700	$0.56	21d	1	0.98mi
3011 Towers Pkwy College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1271	$1,895	$1.49	44d	1	0.99mi
1525 Hillside Dr Unit CS College Station, TX	2.0	1.5	950	$1,295	$1.36	44d	1	1.01mi
502 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	660	$1,225	$1.86	14d	39	1.06mi
3013 Normand Dr College Station, TX	3.0	1.5	1479	$1,600	$1.08	14d	1	1.06mi
528 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,060	$1.09	21d	1	1.10mi
528 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	975	$1,039	$1.07	44d	1	1.10mi
1411 Bermuda Ct College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	14d	1	1.12mi
603 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$939	$1.04	14d	4	1.13mi
529 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1218	$1,317	$1.08	14d	1	1.13mi
1101 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	2.0	1.5	1000	$979	$0.98	44d	1	1.15mi
515 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1236	$1,458	$1.18	21d	1	1.16mi
3510 Paloma Ridge Dr College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1300	$1,650	$1.27	14d	1	1.17mi
527 Southwest Pkwy #103 College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1236	$2,800	$2.27	21d	1	1.22mi
521 Southwest Pkwy #303 College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1236	$460	$0.37	14d	1	1.22mi
527 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.0	1236	$1,625	$1.31	44d	2	1.23mi
808 Concho Pl College Station, TX	2.0	1.0	841	$1,150	$1.37	21d	1	1.26mi
903 Crepe Myrtle St College Station, TX	3.0	3.0	1335	$1,800	$1.35	21d	1	1.27mi
301 Southwest Pkwy College Station, TX	4.0	4.0–4.5	1538	$2,200	$1.43	44d	2	1.28mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $187,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $187,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $187,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $187,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $187,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $187,000 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $187,000 Active 180 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $187,000 Active 179 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $187,000 Active 178 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $187,000 Active 177 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $187,000 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $187,000 Active 172 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $187,000 Active 171 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $187,000 Active 170 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $187,000 Active 169 DOM
16. 2026-01-26
    price $187,000 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    This well-located duplex offers outstanding potential for both new and seasoned investors. Please note it is ONE side only. The property features a spacious 3-bed, 2-bath. Positioned on the Texas A & M bus route, it’s perfectly suited for students and university staff seeking convenient access to campus. Inside, you’ll find comfortable, updated living spaces, generous layouts, outdoor areas to enjoy, and plenty of parking. Properties like this don’t come around often—reach out today to secure a strong, consistent income-producing asset in the heart of Aggieland.

17. 2025-12-16
    status Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    This well-located duplex offers outstanding potential for both new and seasoned investors. Please note it is ONE side only. The property features a spacious 3-bed, 2-bath. Positioned on the Texas A & M bus route, it’s perfectly suited for students and university staff seeking convenient access to campus. Inside, you’ll find comfortable, updated living spaces, generous layouts, outdoor areas to enjoy, and plenty of parking. Properties like this don’t come around often—reach out today to secure a strong, consistent income-producing asset in the heart of Aggieland.

18. 2025-12-09
    listed $199,900 Active 596-char remark

    Show marketing remark (596 chars)

    This well-located duplex offers outstanding potential for both new and seasoned investors. Please note it is ONE side only. The property features a spacious 3-bed, 2-bath. Positioned on the Texas A & M bus route, it’s perfectly suited for students and university staff seeking convenient access to campus. Inside, you’ll find comfortable, updated living spaces, generous layouts, outdoor areas to enjoy, and plenty of parking. Properties like this don’t come around often—reach out today to secure a strong, consistent income-producing asset in the heart of Aggieland.

19. 2025-12-08
    listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,332 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,422 · $285/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,090/yr (+$91/mo · 46.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,078
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,475
• − Property taxes: −$2,332
• − Insurance: −$1,732
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,446
• − Management: −$1,446
• − Depreciation: −$5,440
• Taxable loss: −$4,794
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $-400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: College Station ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807350
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,991
• Composite: 46.54/100
• National rank: #2428
• State rank: #113 of 826 in TX

Livability — College Station

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #994

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety B User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: College Station, TX
• County: Brazos County · 233,400 people
• City population: 131,628
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 76,764
• Household income: $88,851
• Rent vs Own: 37.2% rent · 62.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 3329.0

Population outlook (Brazos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,942 people
• By 2030: 296,630 · +10.7%
• By 2040: 354,560 · +32.3%
• By 2050: 414,616 · +54.7%
• By 2075: 562,158 · +109.8%
• By 2100: 678,828 · +153.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Asian 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazos

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 36.9% · R 61.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -28.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+14.3 2016: R+23.7 2012: R+35.3 2008: R+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.31%
• Current HPI: 175.9669
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.13%
• Metro: College Station-Bryan, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $187,000 BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-16 Relisted — BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $199,900 BCSRMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $199,900 BCSRMLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,332 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.