815 124th St SW #1 · Lake Stickney, WA 98204

$99,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,460 sqft · Manufactured public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1978 $68/sqft · 49% below area Est $193k · 49% under ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this desirable 55+ gated community! This charming and well-maintained home offers comfortable, low-maintenance living with modern updates throughout. Inside, you’ll find a spacious primary suite and stylish vinyl plank flooring. The bright kitchen includes a cozy eating area and is enhanced by modern light fixtures with NEW cook top range and NEW oven. Relax in the inviting living room, complete with a warm fireplace, built-in storage, and custom bookshelves — perfect for displaying décor or your favorite reads. Additional conveniences include an in-unit washer and dryer, a covered carport, and extra storage. A wonderful blend of comfort, style, and community a

Key facts

• Gated community
• Modern updates
• Covered carport

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• MODERN UPDATES
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• COVERED CARPORT
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.5% vs local median 2.4% in Lake Stickney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#192 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, health & safety A; Watch: schools D, amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Mukilteo School District (suburban): math 47% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #111 of 291 in WA (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.32%
• DSCR: 3.42
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,776
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -48.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
815 124th St SW	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,458 (-0%)	2mo	$290,000	$199	93
815 124th St SW #52	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-2%)	4mo	$149,900	$104	89
815 124th St SW #27	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-2%)	9mo	$105,000	$73	85
815 124th St SW #22	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-2%)	10mo	$200,000	$139	84
815 124th St SW #29	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	12mo	$264,950	$184	83
815 124 St SW #117	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,334 (-9%)	6mo	$130,000	$97	76
815 124th St SW #140	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,319 (-10%)	11mo	$230,000	$174	75
11500 Meridian Ave S #91	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-0%)	2mo	$226,000	$155	67
12605 E Gibson Rd #50	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,325 (-9%)	14mo	$165,000	$125	62
12030 2nd Dr SE	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-2%)	10mo	$485,000	$338	51
11500 Meridian Ave S #49	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,620 (+11%)	3mo	$245,000	$151	48
11500 Meridian Ave S #22	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-12%)	10mo	$199,000	$154	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.05×
• Total profit: $56,838
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $125,193
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98204

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,408 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $1,255

Break-even live

Break-even rent $819

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
820 124th St SW Apt D Everett, WA	2.0	1.5	960	$1,595	$1.66	5d	1	0.09mi
12522 8th Ave W Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1005	$2,496	$2.48	5d	8	0.16mi
12600 4th Ave W Everett, WA	2.0	2.5	1336	$2,295	$1.72	17d	1	0.24mi
222 124th St SW Unit A2 Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1560	$2,975	$1.91	5d	1	0.32mi
12121 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1116	$2,855	$2.56	3d	18	0.36mi
12433 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$2,849	$2.65	2d	32	0.37mi
11812 E Gibson Rd Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	956	$1,810	$1.89	2d	7	0.40mi
1007 130th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	796	$1,800	$2.26	2d	9	0.40mi
1108 Center Rd Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	15d	1	0.43mi
12402 Admiralty Way Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	842	$2,370	$2.81	2d	16	0.44mi
11727 12th Ave W #77 Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1533	$3,100	$2.02	22d	1	0.45mi
11719 12th Ave W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,800	$1.83	44d	1	0.46mi
12907 E Gibson Rd Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$2,085	$2.43	5d	4	0.46mi
12907 E Gibson Rd Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,081	$2.69	2d	5	0.46mi
12530 Admiralty Way Unit D304 Everett, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$2,400	$2.29	5d	1	0.61mi
13004 Meridian Ave S Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,280	$2.22	2d	1	0.62mi
133 124th St SE Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,055	$2.50	2d	9	0.65mi
1020 112th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	853	$1,752	$2.05	2d	7	0.66mi
128 127th St SE Everett, WA	3.0	1.0–2.0	884	$3,296	$3.73	2d	10	0.66mi
11207 9th Pl W Everett, WA	2.0	1.0	995	$1,899	$1.91	20d	7	0.71mi
923 112th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	858	$2,305	$2.69	2d	24	0.76mi
305 127th St SE Unit A Everett, WA	2.0	2.5	1456	$2,649	$1.82	44d	1	0.78mi
4 112th St SW Unit A Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1661	$3,300	$1.99	44d	1	0.85mi
12118 Highway 99 Everett, WA	1.0–5.0	1.0–3.0	1117	$2,236	$2.00	2d	5	0.87mi
1730 112th St SW Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$2,100	$2.61	2d	6	0.90mi
13117 3rd Ave SE Unit J1 Everett, WA	3.0	3.0	1659	$3,249	$1.96	44d	1	0.92mi
11026 Meridian Dr SE Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	44d	1	0.96mi
418 138th Pl SW Everett, WA	3.0	2.0	1600	$3,000	$1.88	44d	1	0.96mi
11401 3rd Ave SE Everett, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,962	$2.28	2d	13	1.00mi
11625 Center Rd Unit C Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1608	$3,200	$1.99	44d	1	1.03mi
2301 116th St SW Unit E Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1400	$2,595	$1.85	44d	1	1.06mi
14029 9th Pl W Lynnwood, WA	4.0	2.5	1777	$3,200	$1.80	5d	1	1.09mi
2020 Hollow Dale Pl Unit A Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1525	$2,650	$1.74	44d	1	1.15mi
609 142nd St SW Lynnwood, WA	3.0	2.0	1646	$3,399	$2.07	44d	1	1.16mi
515 112th St SE Everett, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1050	$2,345	$2.23	3d	3	1.16mi
525 112th St SE Everett, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1019	$2,416	$2.37	2d	6	1.18mi
12318 26th Pl W Everett, WA	3.0	2.5	1558	$3,000	$1.93	5d	1	1.21mi
13730 Manor Way Unit F2 Lynnwood, WA	3.0	3.5	1626	$3,400	$2.09	44d	1	1.26mi
13510 N Creek Dr Mill Creek, WA	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1020	$2,024	$1.98	4d	1	1.30mi
13401 Dumas Rd Mill Creek, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	872	$2,237	$2.56	2d	5	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 220 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 218 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 214 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 213 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 212 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 209 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 208 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 207 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 206 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 205 DOM
14. 2026-04-23
    price $99,000
15. 2026-03-05
    price $110,000
16. 2026-01-22
    price $120,000
17. 2025-12-02
    price $150,000
18. 2025-11-07
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,891
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $14,307
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,434
• After-tax cash flow: $11,624/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mukilteo School District
• NCES district ID: 5305430
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $60,807
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #4733
• State rank: #111 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lake Stickney

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #192
• US rank: #5224

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 45,130
• Household income: $68,513
• Rent vs Own: 66.4% rent · 33.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2874.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 22% Asian 14% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 18% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Vietnamese 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -540.03%
• Current HPI: 321.7923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.70%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-43.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $99,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $110,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $120,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-02 Price Changed $150,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $175,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,040 · +10011.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.