14611 Northwest Pl · Chantilly, VA 20151

$80,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1998 Fair condition $55/sqft · 23% below area Est $104k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a manufactured home in a managed park. All buyers must be approved by Meadows of Chantilly. The current Land Rent is $1878/month. Buyers can pay cash or secure private financing to pay for the house. This is an opportunity to make this home your own with a bit of sweat equity. Double-wide Commadore model with vinyl siding, sited on a wide cul-de-sac lot. The double wide driveway has room for 4 cars. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Primary suite with full bath, relaxing tub and lots of closet space. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bath offer flexibility. Kitchen with white appliances and a peninsula with counter seating. Laundry room with full size washer and dryer and access to the rear yard . Community clubhouse, pool, workout room, tot lot and basketball court. Ideal commuter location near Routes 50, 28, the Dulles Toll Road, and I-66. Walk to shopping and restaurants.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laundry room
• Community clubhouse

Tags

• DOUBLE WIDE DRIVEWAY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• KITCHEN WITH PENINSULA
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• COMMUNITY CLUBHOUSE

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $80,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$104,117) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 41.6% vs local median 3.0% in Chantilly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#66 in VA, #2,106 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Fairfax County Public School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #13 of 131 in VA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 2,861 units permitted in Fairfax County in 2024 (1,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,600 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 41.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 125.98%
• DSCR: 6.61
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $104,117
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -23.16%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14615 Pan Am Ave	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-2%)	21mo	$95,000	$67	72
14604 Northwest Pl	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-11%)	14mo	$84,000	$65	68
14528 Lanica Cir	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,333 (-8%)	13mo	$87,000	$65	68
14604 Icelandic Pl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-8%)	18mo	$85,000	$63	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $138,097
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.21×
• Total profit: $318,403
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20151

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,677 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$772
• Net cashflow: $2,352

Break-even live

Break-even rent $700

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14530 George Carter Way Chantilly, VA	3.0	2.5	1608	$5,000	$3.11	43d	1	0.68mi
4399 Peach Lily Ln Chantilly, VA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,895	$2.41	7d	1	0.71mi
3840 Lightfoot St Chantilly, VA	3.0	2.0	1233	$2,625	$2.13	43d	2	1.33mi
3810 Lightfoot St Chantilly, VA	2.0	2.0	966	$2,484	$2.57	24d	2	1.42mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $80,000 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 52 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 51 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 48 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 47 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 46 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 42 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 41 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 40 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 39 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    listed $80,000 Active 908-char remark

    Show marketing remark (908 chars)

    This is a manufactured home in a managed park. All buyers must be approved by Meadows of Chantilly. The current Land Rent is $1878/month. Buyers can pay cash or secure private financing to pay for the house. This is an opportunity to make this home your own with a bit of sweat equity. Double-wide Commadore model with vinyl siding, sited on a wide cul-de-sac lot. The double wide driveway has room for 4 cars. Open floor plan with vaulted ceilings. Primary suite with full bath, relaxing tub and lots of closet space. Two additional bedrooms and a second full bath offer flexibility. Kitchen with white appliances and a peninsula with counter seating. Laundry room with full size washer and dryer and access to the rear yard . Community clubhouse, pool, workout room, tot lot and basketball court. Ideal commuter location near Routes 50, 28, the Dulles Toll Road, and I-66. Walk to shopping and restaurants.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,530
• − Management: −$3,530
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $28,652
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,876
• After-tax cash flow: $21,344/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home in a managed park requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with painting and window cleaning being the highest-ROI updates for both resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Paint appears faded in some areas
• Minor Windows — No visible damage, but could benefit from cleaning

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Window cleaning — Improves natural light and overall appearance
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces utility costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Paint appears faded in some areas	Minor	$500–3,000
Windows · No visible damage, but could benefit from cleaning	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Window cleaning — Improves natural light and overall appearance ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and reduces utility costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fairfax County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101260
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $110,238
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #679
• State rank: #13 of 131 in VA

Livability — Chantilly

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #2106

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chantilly, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 59,284
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 22,610
• Household income: $158,271
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 291.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,237,259 people
• By 2030: 1,277,758 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,346,508 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 1,397,919 · +13.0%
• By 2075: 1,493,100 · +20.7%
• By 2100: 1,465,712 · +18.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 37% White 33% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 42% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 11% Other Asian/Pacific 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+35.0) · D 66.1% · R 31.1% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.8pp toward D · 2008: 21.2pp · 2024: 35.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+35.0 2020: D+41.9 2016: D+36.2 2012: D+19.8 2008: D+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.61%
• Current HPI: 313.472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.33%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS