1201 Valencia Ave · Haines City, FL 33844

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,011 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 198 Days on market

Built 1976 9,836 sqft lot ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home! This charming property is a compelling find in Haines City, presenting the perfect opportunity for homeownership or a smart investment. Built with solid bones and lasting quality, this classic residence offers a durable structure and spacious layout that provides immediate stability. Strategically priced for today's market, this home makes monthly ownership costs highly accessible, ideal for first-time buyers looking to stop renting and start building equity immediately. This home is ready for its next chapter and offers unbeatable value in an established neighborhood. While perfectly livable and move-in ready, it serves as a fantastic blank canvas for moderate, tasteful updat

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 9,836 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• MASSIVE FUTURE POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoning: R-2; Lot dimensions approximately 102 x 100 (0.23 acres)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association reported

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; Faces north; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Chain link fencing; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No notable interior features reported; Range; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 27% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1333 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.85%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,109
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,223
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33844

• Home prices YoY: -26.7%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 1333
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,549/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,592

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2109 N 13th St Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	772	$1,300	$1.68	23d	1	0.14mi
1125 Avenue L Unit L Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,300	$1.54	23d	1	0.15mi
1205 Avenue I Unit I Haines City, FL	3.0	1.0	836	$1,340	$1.60	14d	1	0.27mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	14d	1	0.39mi
2492 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	23d	1	0.39mi
2474 Saint Augustine Blvd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,900	$1.36	3d	1	0.44mi
425 Hammerstone Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,796	$1.24	13d	1	0.49mi
2896 Kokomo Loop Unit 1259817P Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1119	$6,692	$5.98	18d	1	0.53mi
1016 Avenue A Unit A Haines City, FL	4.0	2.0	1282	$1,875	$1.46	14d	1	0.60mi
2972 Kokomo Loop Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,900	$1.68	23d	1	0.65mi
2117 Winger Ave Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	23d	1	0.72mi
1140 Mariner Cay Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1130	$2,200	$1.95	23d	1	0.74mi
504 N 7th St Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1309	$1,870	$1.43	2d	1	0.93mi
608 Claude Holmes SR Ave Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	748	$1,350	$1.80	3d	1	0.94mi
8013 Hemingway Cir #8013 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,600	$1.39	23d	1	0.94mi
8009 Hemingway Cir Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,399	$1.21	23d	1	0.95mi
6003 Hemingway Cir #6003 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,550	$1.35	23d	1	0.97mi
6004 Hemingway Cir #6004 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$2,150	$1.87	23d	1	0.97mi
6016 Hemingway Cir Unit 6016 Haines City, FL	2.0	2.0	1153	$1,500	$1.30	23d	1	0.98mi
487 Eaglecrest Dr Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,150	$1.52	23d	1	1.01mi
325 N 5th St Unit 325-5 Haines City, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$945	$1.26	14d	1	1.08mi
106 Reineke Rd Haines City, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,495	$1.11	3d	1	1.35mi
646 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,836	$1.30	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 197 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 196 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 195 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 188 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 187 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-05-05
    status Active
15. 2026-04-30
    historical
16. 2026-02-04
    price $170,000
17. 2026-02-04
    status Active
18. 2026-01-31
    historical
19. 2025-11-23
    listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,549 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,549 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,637
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$3,549
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,811
• − Management: −$1,811
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable income: $148
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$36
• After-tax cash flow: $2,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Haines City

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #285
• US rank: #4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Haines City, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 51,255
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,255
• Household income: $63,650
• Rent vs Own: 29.6% rent · 70.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1107.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.94%
• Current HPI: 291.0798
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.16%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-19.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-23 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+31.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,549 · +607.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.