3819 Aurora Mist Ln · Houston, TX 77053

$209,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,346 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 319 Days on market

Built 2009 4,151 sqft lot $89/sqft · 19% below area Est $258k · 19% under $37/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

Key facts

• 4,151 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2009

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (8.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $185k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $70k (25%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,587
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: -18.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15431 Foresail Ln	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,397 (+2%)	2mo	$345,990	$144	79
4218 Freeboard Ln	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,397 (+2%)	2mo	$339,990	$142	76
15526 Foresail Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,397 (+2%)	4mo	$340,990	$142	76
15523 Fathom Line Way	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-7%)	1mo	$340,990	$157	69
15446 Foresail Ln	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,587 (+10%)	1mo	$380,900	$147	66
15523 Foresail Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5	2,173 (-7%)	3mo	$340,990	$157	65
15411 Fathom Line Way	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,096 (-11%)	2mo	$349,192	$167	62
4214 Freeboard Ln	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,096 (-11%)	4mo	$344,964	$165	61
15511 Fathom Line Way	0.39mi	4/2.5	2,096 (-11%)	4mo	$356,582	$170	61
4230 Wind Swell Ln	0.45mi	4/2.5	2,587 (+10%)	3mo	$386,892	$150	60
4311 Wind Swell Ln	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,397 (+2%)	8mo	$372,150	$155	58
4307 Wind Swell Ln	0.49mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,173 (-7%)	6mo	$363,560	$167	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-42,645
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-55,174
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77053

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,241 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$640 /mo · $7,686/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $193,062

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $24	-5% $-36	+0% $-95	+5% $-155	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-184	+0% $-95	+5% $-7	+10% $82
Rate	-1.0pp $10	-0.5pp $-42	base $-95	+0.5pp $-150	+1.0pp $-205

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4751 E Ridge Creek Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1582	$1,625	$1.03	4d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 318 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 317 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 316 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 314 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $209,900 Active 310 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 309 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 308 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $209,900 Active 305 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 302 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 301 DOM
12. 2026-05-08
    price $209,900 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

13. 2026-01-27
    price $213,500 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

14. 2025-12-29
    status Active 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

15. 2025-11-22
    status Pending 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

16. 2025-10-20
    status Active 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

17. 2025-10-20
    price $218,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

18. 2025-06-24
    status Pending 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

19. 2025-06-12
    status Pending 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

20. 2025-05-29
    price $159,900 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

21. 2025-04-16
    price $216,000 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

22. 2025-03-24
    price $238,900 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

23. 2025-03-07
    price $248,900 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

24. 2025-03-03
    price $258,900 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

25. 2025-02-25
    price $269,900 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

26. 2025-02-17
    listed $279,900 Active 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    5 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATHROOM HOME. HOME FEATURES A FORMAL DINING AND OPEN KITCHEN AREA CONVENIENTLY LOCATED NEAR PEARLAND.

27. 2020-03-02
    soldstatus
28. 2020-02-28
    soldstatus Sold 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MEDICAL CENTER!!! Untouched by Harvey, the gorgeous 2-story fully-remodeled 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features large living areas downstairs, oversized upstairs game room, beautiful backyard with a patio to host family gatherings. Location, location, location. In a quiet deed-protected subdivision, it's a great place to come home to. Just minutes from Beltway 8, with super easy access to the highway. Open design with plenty of natural light, kitchen with granite countertops, complete with appliances including microwave, oven range, oven, and dishwasher. Beautiful laminate wood floors and tile throughout, ceiling fans.

29. 2020-02-14
    status Pending 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MEDICAL CENTER!!! Untouched by Harvey, the gorgeous 2-story fully-remodeled 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features large living areas downstairs, oversized upstairs game room, beautiful backyard with a patio to host family gatherings. Location, location, location. In a quiet deed-protected subdivision, it's a great place to come home to. Just minutes from Beltway 8, with super easy access to the highway. Open design with plenty of natural light, kitchen with granite countertops, complete with appliances including microwave, oven range, oven, and dishwasher. Beautiful laminate wood floors and tile throughout, ceiling fans.

30. 2020-02-03
    status Option Pending 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MEDICAL CENTER!!! Untouched by Harvey, the gorgeous 2-story fully-remodeled 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features large living areas downstairs, oversized upstairs game room, beautiful backyard with a patio to host family gatherings. Location, location, location. In a quiet deed-protected subdivision, it's a great place to come home to. Just minutes from Beltway 8, with super easy access to the highway. Open design with plenty of natural light, kitchen with granite countertops, complete with appliances including microwave, oven range, oven, and dishwasher. Beautiful laminate wood floors and tile throughout, ceiling fans.

31. 2020-01-24
    listed $199,500 Active 643-char remark

    Show marketing remark (643 chars)

    CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MEDICAL CENTER!!! Untouched by Harvey, the gorgeous 2-story fully-remodeled 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home features large living areas downstairs, oversized upstairs game room, beautiful backyard with a patio to host family gatherings. Location, location, location. In a quiet deed-protected subdivision, it's a great place to come home to. Just minutes from Beltway 8, with super easy access to the highway. Open design with plenty of natural light, kitchen with granite countertops, complete with appliances including microwave, oven range, oven, and dishwasher. Beautiful laminate wood floors and tile throughout, ceiling fans.

32. 2010-03-08
    soldstatus
33. 2010-02-03
    historical
34. 2009-12-16
    listed $153,424

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,686 · $640/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,686 · $640/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,892
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$7,686
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,151
• − Management: −$2,151
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,069
• After-tax cash flow: $-75/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,198
• Household income: $66,510
• Rent vs Own: 32.8% rent · 67.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 562.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (54%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% Black 41% Two or more races 22% White 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 50% English-only · Spanish 49%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -182.09%
• Current HPI: 266.6541
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+36.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $213,500 HARMLS
• 2025-12-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Price Changed $218,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $159,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-16 Price Changed $216,000 HARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Price Changed $238,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-07 Price Changed $248,900 HARMLS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $258,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Price Changed $269,900 HARMLS
• 2025-02-17 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2020-03-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-02-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-24 Listed $199,500 HARMLS
• 2010-03-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2010-02-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-12-16 Listed $153,424 HARMLS

Property tax history

+21.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,686 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.