138 Jack Rival Way · Dungannon, VA 24245

$88,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 344 Days on market

Built 1988 5,227 sqft lot Est $75k · 18% over $100/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Why would you pay rent when you can own your own adorable yellow 3 br, 2 ba home with new appliances, even a new washer and dryer. Central Heat and air, move in condition, covered front porch, like new condition. The seller is a non-profit organization. Down payment assistance is available for buyers, depending on need. This will lower the mortgage amount needed and the monthly payment. Must be owner occupied. Own your own home!

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Washer and dryer
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS
• FULLY EQUIPPED WITH APPLIANCES
• WASHER AND DRYER
• GENTLY SLOPING LAWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($932 rent vs $88k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#450 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Scott County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #33 of 131 in VA (top 25%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fort Blackmore Primary (math 70% / reading 70%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 89 students, 94% FRL); Twin Springs High (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B-, #231 of 319 statewide, top 75%, 242 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 48% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 22 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Scott County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $77,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,880
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Kitty Cole Ln	0.01mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (0%)	6mo	$75,000	$104	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-8,095
• Equity at exit: $13,121

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $981
• Equity at exit: $7,609

Cash invested: $24,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24245

• Home prices YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 12
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $499/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$196
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $810

Max offer price $88,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,000
• Closing costs: $2,640
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-06
   price $88,000
3. 2025-10-08
   status Active
4. 2025-10-03
   historical
5. 2025-04-10
   listed $90,000 Active
6. 2015-09-01
   soldstatus $432,296

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $499 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $722 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$223/yr (+$19/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,180
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,929
• − Property taxes: −$499
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$894
• − Management: −$894
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$2,560
• Taxable loss: −$237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57
• After-tax cash flow: $1,212/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scott County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103480
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $36,567
• Composite: 57.65/100
• National rank: #1061
• State rank: #33 of 131 in VA

Livability — Dungannon

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #19260

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dungannon, VA
• Population (ZIP): 873

Population outlook (Scott County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,405 people
• By 2030: 19,379 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 17,325 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 15,464 · -24.2%
• By 2075: 11,845 · -42.0%
• By 2100: 8,516 · -58.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Scott

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.4) · D 14.5% · R 84.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.3pp toward R · 2008: -43.1pp · 2024: -70.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.4 2020: R+67.8 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+50.6 2008: R+43.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.01%
• Current HPI: 175.337
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-79.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $88,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-10-08 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-10-03 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $90,000 TVRMLS
• 2015-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $432,296 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $499 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.