5383 Heartwood Ln · Roscoe, IL 61073

$65,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition Est $89k · 27% under $830/mo HOA · 47% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow, check out this spacious and open modular home! Split bedroom floor plan! Master has an en suite. FR and Greatroom! Plenty of space to entertain or spread out. 3 BR, 2.5 bathrooms and a generous sized 2.5 car garage! Eat in kitchen area and breakfast bar, skylights and more! Conveniently located to dining, shopping, parks, the interstate and much more! 55+ community.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1994
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with a $830 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath manufactured listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $108 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 2.8% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#61 in IL, #1,071 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Harlem UD 122 (suburban): math 17% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #418 of 620 in IL (top 67%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Olson Park Elem School (math 29% / reading 37%, grade F, #577 of 2,056 statewide, top 28%, 343 students, 0% FRL); Harlem High School (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #350 of 693 statewide, top 51%, 1,875 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 45% district-wide (45 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.

Recommended offer $65,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.14%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5371 Heartwood Ln	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	2mo	$95,000	$53	85
5456 White Pine Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	7mo	$63,000	$38	82
8535 Springwood Ct	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-5%)	3mo	$90,000	$56	79
5476 Ebonywood Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	1mo	$66,500	$46	69
5477 White Pine Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	10mo	$87,500	$56	69
5411 Autumnash Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	4mo	$87,000	$60	69
5615 Cypress Ln	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,848 (+10%)	8mo	$105,000	$57	66
8415 Tamarack Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+7%)	10mo	$84,900	$47	66
5332 Cypress Ln	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,926 (+15%)	8mo	$100,000	$52	65
5492 Heartwood Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	9mo	$50,000	$34	63
8581 Springwood Ct	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-13%)	6mo	$77,400	$53	61
8410 Hickory Tree Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+10%)	10mo	$95,000	$51	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-3,097
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $8,367
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61073

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,756 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$830
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,619

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5515 Tall Pines Pkwy Unit 1 Roscoe, IL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	13d	1	1.06mi
6410 Harvest Ln Machesney Park, IL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1535	$2,000	$1.30	13d	2	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $830 · $9,960/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $65,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-07
   listed $65,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − HOA: −$9,960
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $912
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$219
• After-tax cash flow: $1,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath modular home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Key areas for improvement include painting, flooring, and kitchen and bathroom updates.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance and need for cleaning
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance and need for cleaning
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered appearance and need for cleaning
• Moderate Carpeted floors — Worn appearance and need for cleaning
• Moderate Interior walls — Faded paint and need for touch-up

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting and touch-up of interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Resale New flooring — New carpet or tile can greatly enhance the home's appeal and value
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Fresh paint and new fixtures can make these spaces more appealing and functional
• Resale Exterior painting and cleaning — Fresh paint and cleaning can improve the home's curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance and need for cleaning	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated appearance and need for cleaning	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Exterior siding · Weathered appearance and need for cleaning	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpeted floors · Worn appearance and need for cleaning	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Interior walls · Faded paint and need for touch-up	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$15,000–75,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting and touch-up of interior walls — Fresh paint can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale New flooring — New carpet or tile can greatly enhance the home's appeal and value ↑
• Resale Kitchen and bathroom updates — Fresh paint and new fixtures can make these spaces more appealing and functional ↑
• Resale Exterior painting and cleaning — Fresh paint and cleaning can improve the home's curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harlem UD 122
• NCES district ID: 1718240
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,228
• Composite: 18.01/100
• National rank: #8982
• State rank: #418 of 620 in IL

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1071

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roscoe, IL
• City population: 20,008
• Population (ZIP): 20,008

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.22%
• Current HPI: 248.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+18.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $65,000 NWIAR
• 2022-02-08 Sold (MLS) $50,000 NWIAR
• 2021-11-01 Listed $55,000 NWIAR