6136 Bagley Rd · Jacksonville, FL 32209

$146,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,213 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1946 0.48 ac lot Est $146k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent for the right person, either home owner or investor. !!!!WILL CONSIDER SELLER FINANCING!!!!! This property has TWO LOTS. Current owner had the septic system re-done. Features 2 car garage, fireplace, large size kitchen, 2 full baths. Owner never lived in property, was previously rented as an investment. THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE!!!!

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1946

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot on a paved city street; Lot approximately 0.48 acres
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Security: Fire alarm
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence, one story; Residential use
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fire alarm

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $146k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 394 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,376/mo this rent would consume 54% of the median local household income ($31k/yr) (locally 2921% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $146k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,480 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6169 Bagley Rd	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+1%)	10mo	$220,000	$179	86
3181 Brasque Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-6%)	2mo	$182,900	$160	67
4285 S Katanga Dr	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,172 (-3%)	11mo	$99,900	$85	63
4510 Detaille Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+6%)	8mo	$239,900	$187	58
4429 Trenton Dr S	0.46mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,159 (-4%)	10mo	$144,000	$124	58
4266 Carroll Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,101 (-9%)	4mo	$130,000	$118	56
2936 Breve Dr	0.61mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-5%)	7mo	$145,000	$125	54
6946 West Virginia Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,163 (-4%)	12mo	$80,000	$69	52
4249 Lockhart Dr	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,356 (+12%)	10mo	$155,000	$114	46
4306 Trenton Dr N	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,390 (+15%)	9mo	$95,000	$68	45
3140 Breve Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-14%)	3mo	$125,000	$120	43
5706 Kinlock Ct	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,048 (-14%)	4mo	$120,000	$115	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-14,868
• Equity at exit: $21,769

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,144
• Equity at exit: $12,623

Cash invested: $40,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32209

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 394
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$766
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,156/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,168

Max offer price $146,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $247	-5% $205	+0% $164	+5% $123	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $110	+0% $164	+5% $218	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $201	base $164	+0.5pp $126	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,500
• Closing costs: $4,380
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6188 Pettiford Dr W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1499	$1,850	$1.23	13d	1	0.15mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,400	$1.08	18d	1	0.39mi
6412 New Kings Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,200	$1.00	18d	1	0.39mi
4294 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,450	$1.68	24d	1	0.40mi
6731 W Virginia Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1188	$1,225	$1.03	22d	1	0.43mi
4144 Katanga Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,095	$0.98	24d	1	0.56mi
2904 Lippia Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	1.0	964	$1,400	$1.45	24d	1	0.65mi
6601 Cleveland Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	896	$1,400	$1.56	24d	1	0.66mi
5355 New Kings Rd Unit 21 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	5d	1	0.72mi
5838 Abelia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1135	$1,150	$1.01	24d	1	0.79mi
4910 Rhode Island Dr N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,696	$1.30	24d	1	0.79mi
4236 Homer Rd N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	888	$1,250	$1.41	12d	1	0.80mi
5814 Begonia Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,655	$1.10	24d	1	0.84mi
6705 Gaspar Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1116	$1,254	$1.12	18d	1	0.86mi
5821 Begonia Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,155	$0.94	5d	1	0.87mi
5428 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	24d	1	0.90mi
4211 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	24d	1	0.94mi
3997 Leonnie Rd Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$950	$1.13	8d	1	0.94mi
6718 Gaspar Cir W Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,305	$1.22	24d	1	0.94mi
4253 Moncrief Rd W Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$975	$1.16	24d	1	0.95mi
4543 Moncrief Rd W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	8d	1	0.98mi
5565 Minosa Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,400	$1.14	5d	1	1.02mi
4177 Lorenzo Ct Unit 4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$945	$1.12	2d	1	1.03mi
5326 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	24d	1	1.05mi
5227 Bunche Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,450	$1.24	24d	1	1.05mi
5217 Mays Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	8d	1	1.08mi
5531 Agra Ct Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	988	$1,295	$1.31	15d	1	1.08mi
4440 Ken Knight Dr N Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	716	$650	$0.91	15d	1	1.17mi
5141 Shenandoah Ave Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	2d	4	1.19mi
2693 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,450	$1.12	24d	1	1.25mi
5035 Campenella Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	24d	1	1.27mi
2661 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1031	$1,350	$1.31	24d	1	1.29mi
5236 Wabash Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	712	$999	$1.40	21d	1	1.29mi
6114 Strawflower Pl Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	1030	$1,200	$1.17	24d	1	1.33mi
5239 Potomac Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,432	$1.03	8d	1	1.36mi
2268 W 44th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1077	$1,440	$1.34	4d	1	1.36mi
2540 W 25th St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	854	$1,295	$1.52	15d	1	1.42mi
2151 Wilberforce Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$1,249	$1.07	24d	1	1.43mi
5306 Paris Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0	944	$1,150	$1.22	24d	1	1.45mi
8509 Addison Rd Jacksonville, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,675	$1.12	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $146,000 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $146,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $146,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $146,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $146,000 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $146,000 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $146,000 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $146,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $146,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $146,000 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $146,000 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-05-04
    status Active
13. 2026-04-08
    status Pending
14. 2026-01-15
    listed $146,000 Active
15. 2016-08-03
    soldstatus $83,000
16. 2011-07-21
    historical 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Excellent for the right person, either home owner or investor. !!!!WILL CONSIDER SELLER FINANCING!!!!! This property has TWO LOTS. Current owner had the septic system re-done. Features 2 car garage, fireplace, large size kitchen, 2 full baths. Owner never lived in property, was previously rented as an investment. THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE!!!!

17. 2011-02-17
    listed $49,500 346-char remark

    Show marketing remark (346 chars)

    Excellent for the right person, either home owner or investor. !!!!WILL CONSIDER SELLER FINANCING!!!!! This property has TWO LOTS. Current owner had the septic system re-done. Features 2 car garage, fireplace, large size kitchen, 2 full baths. Owner never lived in property, was previously rented as an investment. THIS IS NOT A SHORT SALE!!!!

18. 2008-07-03
    historical 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    VERY NICE HOME, NEW KITCHEN, DETACHED CONCRETE BLOCK TWO CAR GARAGE, LARGE SPACIOUS DOUBLE LOT, ON QUIET STREET. HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL CARED FOR, YOU'LL BE AMAZED. BEING SOLD AS-IS, SELLER/AGENT MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED AS TO THE CONDITION.

19. 2008-06-27
    soldstatus $55,500 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    VERY NICE HOME, NEW KITCHEN, DETACHED CONCRETE BLOCK TWO CAR GARAGE, LARGE SPACIOUS DOUBLE LOT, ON QUIET STREET. HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL CARED FOR, YOU'LL BE AMAZED. BEING SOLD AS-IS, SELLER/AGENT MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED AS TO THE CONDITION.

20. 2008-03-12
    listed $64,900 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    VERY NICE HOME, NEW KITCHEN, DETACHED CONCRETE BLOCK TWO CAR GARAGE, LARGE SPACIOUS DOUBLE LOT, ON QUIET STREET. HOME HAS BEEN VERY WELL CARED FOR, YOU'LL BE AMAZED. BEING SOLD AS-IS, SELLER/AGENT MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED AS TO THE CONDITION.

21. 2007-09-04
    historical
22. 2007-06-01
    listed $109,900
23. 2005-12-13
    historical
24. 2005-12-09
    soldstatus $44,900
25. 2005-12-09
    soldstatus $44,900
26. 2005-10-10
    listed $44,900
27. 2005-10-10
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,156 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,212 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$56/yr (+$5/mo · 4.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,510
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,178
• − Property taxes: −$1,156
• − Insurance: −$730
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$4,247
• Taxable loss: −$443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,075/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,657
• Household income: $30,514
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2921.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 88% White 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.92%
• Current HPI: 189.5977
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+225.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-04-08 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listed $146,000 realMLS
• 2016-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-21 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2011-02-17 Listed $49,500 realMLS
• 2008-07-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2008-06-27 Sold (MLS) $55,500 realMLS
• 2008-03-12 Listed $64,900 realMLS
• 2007-09-04 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-06-01 Listed $109,900 realMLS
• 2005-12-13 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2005-12-09 Sold (MLS) $44,900 realMLS
• 2005-12-09 Sold (MLS) $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-10 Listed $44,900 realMLS
• 2005-10-10 Listed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,156 · +21.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.