12059 Red Pine Rd · Ashland, VA 22546

$150,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1971 $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Best Deal in the County, Great Deal, Ready 4 New Owner. 3 bedroom-2 full baths, nice flat yard. Some TLC is needed to make this home shine. Contact me to view and more info.

Key facts

• Built 1971
• Listed 4 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Ownership is fee simple; Year built reported as estimated
• HOA & community: HOA fee $100 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water; On-site septic system; Electric power and heating fuel
• Home design: Manufactured home; Above-grade living space reported as 1,344 finished square feet (assessor)
• Construction: Concrete and modular/manufactured construction; Crawl space foundation; Architectural shingle roof; Other structures both above grade and below grade
• Exterior features: Driveway; Tidal water not present; Ground rent paid annually

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump with electric backup; Central air conditioning; Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Finished living area reported by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $836 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 1.5% in Ashland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#67 in VA, #2,152 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public School District (rural): math 39% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #95 of 131 in VA (top 72%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 273 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 318 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caroline County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 15 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $150k implies a 173% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.89%
• DSCR: 2.06
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,624
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12078 Red Pine Rd	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,354 (+1%)	22mo	$320,000	$236	75
12136 Monterey Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-2%)	18mo	$325,000	$246	72
26400 Dejarnette Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,326 (-1%)	16mo	$350,000	$264	68
11441 Ponderosa Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+1%)	4mo	$355,000	$261	66
12126 Longleaf Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+10%)	12mo	$405,000	$275	64
26236 Shannon Mill Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	2mo	$310,000	$239	60
27314 Summer Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+10%)	3mo	$365,000	$248	57
26855 Slash Pine Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,496 (+11%)	9mo	$340,000	$227	56
12120 Loblolly Rd	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-12%)	21mo	$289,900	$247	55
12213 Tennis Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,472 (+10%)	21mo	$340,000	$231	38
26257 Austrian Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,500 (+12%)	21mo	$290,000	$193	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $28,979
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $93,926
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22546

• Home prices YoY: -2.9%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,355 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $901/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $836

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,296

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 648-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $901 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$329/yr (+$27/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,259
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$901
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,261
• − Management: −$2,261
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $8,121
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,949
• After-tax cash flow: $8,085/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caroline County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100660
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,075
• Composite: 43.88/100
• National rank: #2920
• State rank: #95 of 131 in VA

Livability — Ashland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #67
• US rank: #2152

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Caroline County · 18,392 people
• City population: 19,987
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 18,392
• Household income: $89,247
• Rent vs Own: 14.2% rent · 85.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 192.0

Population outlook (Caroline County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 32,136 people
• By 2030: 32,973 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 34,255 · +6.6%
• By 2050: 34,843 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 35,134 · +9.3%
• By 2100: 32,184 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Caroline

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.8) · D 45.1% · R 53.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: -8.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.8 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+5.1 2012: D+8.2 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.95%
• Current HPI: 362.5582
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+200.0% since first listed

50 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2018-03-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 MRIS
• 2018-03-22 Sold (MLS) $55,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-03-11 Pending — MRIS
• 2018-02-20 Price Changed $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-02-20 Price Changed $60,000 MRIS
• 2018-02-15 Price Changed $77,000 MRIS
• 2018-02-03 Price Changed $78,000 MRIS
• 2018-01-13 Price Changed $79,500 MRIS
• 2018-01-12 Price Changed $80,000 MRIS
• 2017-10-27 Price Changed $74,900 MRIS
• 2017-08-21 Listed $80,000 MRIS
• 2017-08-21 Listed $80,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-18 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-11-16 Sold (MLS) $27,000 MRIS
• 2016-11-16 Sold (MLS) $27,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2016-10-31 Pending — MRIS
• 2016-09-29 Price Changed $39,900 MRIS
• 2016-09-28 Price Changed $44,900 MRIS
• 2016-08-16 Price Changed $49,900 MRIS
• 2016-07-12 Listed $59,900 MRIS
• 2016-07-12 Listed $39,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-06-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-03-07 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-11-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-10-24 Listed — MRIS
• 2005-07-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2005-07-13 Listed — MRIS
• 2004-03-29 Sold (MLS) $80,000 MRIS
• 2004-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 2004-01-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-11-17 Listed $89,950 MRIS
• 2003-10-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 2003-06-30 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-03-11 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2003-03-08 Listed — MRIS
• 2003-03-03 Listed $95,000 CVRMLS
• 2003-03-03 Listed $95,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-03-26 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2002-03-26 Sold (MLS) $75,000 MRIS
• 2002-03-26 Sold (MLS) $75,000 CVRMLS
• 2002-02-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 2001-11-13 Listed $79,950 MRIS
• 2001-11-13 Listed $85,000 CVRMLS
• 2001-06-27 Sold (MLS) $39,000 MRIS
• 2001-05-23 Delisted — MRIS
• 2000-05-11 Listed $38,400 MRIS
• 1993-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $901 · +19.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.