121 S Smithville Rd · Dayton, OH 45431

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,309 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1940 5,600 sqft lot Est $141k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover an exceptional opportunity where comfort meets convenience in this delightful single-family residence, offering a serene retreat from the everyday hustle. This charming home presents a unique blend of indoor and outdoor living, perfect for those seeking a tranquil lifestyle within a vibrant community. The inviting atmosphere extends throughout the residence, ensuring every moment spent here is one of ease and enjoyment. With a desirable layout spanning 1309 square feet, this two-bedroom, one-bathroom home provides ample space for relaxation and personal expression. The living areas are thoughtfully designed to maximize comfort, creating an ideal setting for both quiet evenings and

Key facts

• Private oasis
• Spacious deck
• 5,600 sq ft lot

Tags

• INDOOR AND OUTDOOR LIVING
• PRIVATE OASIS
• SPACIOUS DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage
• Utilities: Natural gas available; Public water
• Home design: Single-story home; Frame construction with vinyl siding; Residential zoning
• Construction: Frame construction; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom, about 10 x 9; Main-level bedroom, about 11 x 10; Main-level bedroom, about 13 x 11
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Double-hung vinyl windows; Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $170 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Dayton City (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #641 of 656 in OH (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 127 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($83k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.8% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $119,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.07%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,372
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4007 E 5th St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (-6%)	3mo	$167,000	$136	78
65 S Sperling Ave	0.48mi	2/1.0	1,380 (+5%)	1mo	$57,000	$41	68
4771 Burkhardt Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,349 (+3%)	2mo	$142,000	$105	62
23 Murray Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,131 (-14%)	1mo	$150,000	$133	60
1221 Rangeley Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,295 (-1%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	60
710 Greenlawn Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,304 (-0%)	5mo	$110,000	$84	57
812 Kester Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,400 (+7%)	2mo	$135,625	$97	56
1800 Darst	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,215 (-7%)	5mo	$225,000	$185	54
760 Greenlawn Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,232 (-6%)	2mo	$14,900	$12	51
15 Drury St	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,464 (+12%)	0mo	$181,000	$124	48
146 N Garland Ave	0.56mi	2/1.0	1,116 (-15%)	4mo	$126,000	$113	46
2332 Bonnieview Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,220 (-7%)	4mo	$95,810	$79	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-5,090
• Equity at exit: $17,877

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $24,797
• Equity at exit: $10,367

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45431

• Home prices YoY: -35.0%
• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,221 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,392/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$256
• Net cashflow: $170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $238	-5% $204	+0% $170	+5% $136	+10% $102
Rent	-10% $73	-5% $122	+0% $170	+5% $218	+10% $266
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $200	base $170	+0.5pp $139	+1.0pp $107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4403 Burkhardt Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0–2.0	800	$933	$1.17	4d	1	0.14mi
3817 E 5th St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1178	$1,295	$1.10	4d	1	0.21mi
4013 E 3rd St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1144	$1,095	$0.96	15d	1	0.30mi
515 Mertland Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	25d	1	0.36mi
517 Mertland Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	876	$875	$1.00	15d	1	0.37mi
3719 E 3rd St Unit 3717 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,100	$1.01	4d	1	0.41mi
1704 Huffman Ave Unit 1706 Huffman Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	896	$900	$1.00	4d	1	0.41mi
3707 E 3rd St Unit 3705 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1410	$1,045	$0.74	25d	1	0.43mi
144 N Quentin Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1038	$1,600	$1.54	45d	1	0.48mi
210 S Hedges St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1048	$1,045	$1.00	22d	1	0.51mi
1620 Gummer Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	875	$950	$1.09	4d	1	0.51mi
1770 Suman Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	904	$1,145	$1.27	45d	1	0.51mi
211 N Cherrywood Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$795	$0.84	4d	1	0.53mi
531 S Hayden Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,325	$1.10	12d	1	0.55mi
1300 Chardon Ct Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	970	$1,200	$1.24	4d	1	0.63mi
201 Pleasant Ave Unit 203 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1250	$975	$0.78	25d	1	0.63mi
224 S Irwin St Unit 226 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	992	$900	$0.91	4d	1	0.64mi
334 Blackwood Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	25d	1	0.71mi
334 Blackwood Ave Unit 3 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	4d	1	0.71mi
314 Sheridan Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1258	$1,150	$0.91	4d	1	0.71mi
1029 Blakley Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	947	$1,300	$1.37	4d	1	0.72mi
115 Livingston Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1624	$1,450	$0.89	45d	1	0.74mi
101 N Irwin St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	4d	1	0.80mi
120 S Monmouth St Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.84mi
1143 Blakley Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	947	$1,195	$1.26	15d	1	0.84mi
4924 Bayside Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,545	$1.25	45d	1	0.88mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1354C Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$700	$0.78	45d	1	0.95mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1354A Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$675	$0.75	25d	1	0.95mi
1354 Ohmer St Unit 1356C Dayton, OH	2.0	2.0	1200	$900	$0.75	45d	1	0.95mi
706 Kolping Ave Unit 706 Dayton, OH	3.0	1.5	1172	$1,300	$1.11	4d	1	1.04mi
3100 Linden Ave Unit 3102 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1035	$995	$0.96	45d	1	1.05mi
1430 Coventry Rd Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1106	$1,125	$1.02	15d	1	1.11mi
1520 S Smithville Rd Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1481	$1,345	$0.91	4d	1	1.14mi
637 Creighton Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1144	$1,350	$1.18	15d	1	1.16mi
2351 E 5th St Unit 2349-U Dayton, OH	1.0	1.0	900	$750	$0.83	45d	1	1.18mi
424 Bantz Ct Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1192	$1,050	$0.88	4d	1	1.18mi
854 Santa Cruz Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	45d	1	1.23mi
2012 Saint Charles Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	945	$1,250	$1.32	45d	1	1.23mi
29 N Garfield St Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1092	$1,000	$0.92	25d	1	1.24mi
1659 Hearthstone Dr Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,195	$1.08	4d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $119,900 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,900 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $119,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,900 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $119,900 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-05-28
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,392 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,631 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$239/yr (+$20/mo · 17.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,392
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,172
• − Management: −$1,172
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable income: $112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,011/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dayton City
• NCES district ID: 3904384
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $28,688
• Composite: 12.94/100
• National rank: #9579
• State rank: #641 of 656 in OH

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dayton, OH
• County: Greene County · 132,120 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 27,951
• Household income: $83,175
• Rent vs Own: 49.6% rent · 50.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 5% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.58%
• Current HPI: 276.444
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.79%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $119,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,392 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.