54 Shinerville Rd · Mildred, PA 18614

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1910

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Renovation project 1.2 acres I dont have time for it. Well and septic fully functional. Well is artesian. Just upgraded to a 200 amp service. Pond access House needs whole rewire and plumb it is gutted. Great for someone with time on their hands. 20 minutes from rickets Glen

Key facts

• Well and septic
• Pond access
• 1.2 acres

Tags

• 1.2 ACRES
• WELL AND SEPTIC
• ARTESIAN WELL
• 200 AMP SERVICE
• POND ACCESS
• 20 MINUTES FROM RICKETTS GLEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $583 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Sullivan County SD (rural): math 30% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #387 of 539 in PA (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $521 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $37 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Sullivan County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,950 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 39.10%
• DSCR: 2.74
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.05% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $35,312
• Equity at exit: $20,510

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.50×
• Total profit: $88,149
• Equity at exit: $24,801

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18614

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,408 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $933/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $583

Break-even live

Break-even rent $670

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $70,000 Under Contract 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $70,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $70,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $70,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-28
    listed $70,000 Active
15. 2023-12-21
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $933 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,020 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$86/yr (+$7/mo · 9.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,901
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$933
• − Insurance: −$1,016
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,290
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,510
• After-tax cash flow: $5,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sullivan County SD
• NCES district ID: 4222920
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -19.00%
• Median HH income: $41,302
• Composite: 31.94/100
• National rank: #5847
• State rank: #387 of 539 in PA

Livability — Mildred

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,987

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,062 people
• By 2030: 5,878 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 5,345 · -11.8%
• By 2050: 4,718 · -22.2%
• By 2075: 3,259 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 2,449 · -59.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.2% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+47.2 2016: R+49.3 2012: R+28.3 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.05%
• Current HPI: 179.841
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+16.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $70,000 FSBO.com
• 2023-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $933 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.