1306 W Main St · Walnut Ridge, AR 72476

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,133 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Est $86k · 39% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 1-bath home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for an affordable property in a convenient location close to local businesses, shopping, and everyday amenities. Featuring a large, fully privacy-fenced backyard with plenty of room for outdoor activities, pets, or entertaining, the property also includes updated flooring in the living room, kitchen, and bathroom along with fresh interior paint. With a practical layout and solid potential to make it your own, this home is a great option for first-time buyers, investors, or anyone looking for a property with value and convenience in a good location.

Key facts

• Updated flooring
• Convenient location
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• PRIVACY-FENCED BACKYARD
• UPDATED FLOORING
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• CONVENIENT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed by Keller Williams NEA
• Financial info: Annual tax amount noted

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence (Residential property)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating
• Interior features: Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 5.3% in Walnut Ridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#351 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lawrence County School District (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #188 of 238 in AR (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Walnut Ridge Elementary School (math 26% / reading 20%, grade F, #363 of 454 statewide, top 80%, 580 students, 58% FRL); Walnut Ridge High School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #182 of 292 statewide, top 63%, 462 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 63 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Lawrence County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $120k implies a 150% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,108
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1309 Holly	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,206 (+6%)	5mo	$159,900	$133	72
620 W Main St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,141 (+1%)	2mo	$85,251	$75	70
103 Pocahontas Rd	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (-1%)	16mo	$120,000	$107	66
1603 Jay St	0.44mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,247 (+10%)	4mo	$95,000	$76	55
402 NW 6th St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,204 (+6%)	1mo	$4,500	$4	54
405 Benson Dr	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,301 (+15%)	21mo	$144,000	$111	34
417 W Free St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	966 (-15%)	13mo	$85,000	$88	33
805 SW 5th St	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,263 (+12%)	23mo	$73,000	$58	33
706 SW 2nd St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,218 (+8%)	22mo	$29,900	$25	33
523 SW 5 St	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,280 (+13%)	23mo	$10,750	$8	32
1809 Jay St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,272 (+12%)	22mo	$146,500	$115	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $34,448
• Equity at exit: $59,564

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.85×
• Total profit: $95,619
• Equity at exit: $96,416

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72476

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,229 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $936

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 76%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $266	+0% $232	+5% $198	+10% $164
Rent	-10% $135	-5% $183	+0% $232	+5% $280	+10% $329
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $262	base $232	+0.5pp $201	+1.0pp $169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $120,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    listed $125,000 Active
19. 2007-01-25
    soldstatus $48,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: +$49/yr (+$4/mo · 6.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,180
• − Management: −$1,180
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $857
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$206
• After-tax cash flow: $2,575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence County School District
• NCES district ID: 0500082
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $34,340
• Composite: 20.15/100
• National rank: #8637
• State rank: #188 of 238 in AR

Livability — Walnut Ridge

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #351
• US rank: #21939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Walnut Ridge, AR
• Population (ZIP): 7,565

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,453 people
• By 2030: 14,697 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,247 · -14.3%
• By 2050: 11,937 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,466 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,441 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.0) · D 16.9% · R 81.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.1pp toward R · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -64.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.0 2020: R+59.6 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Current HPI: 231.817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+150.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $120,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $125,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2007-01-25 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $719 · +8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.