14104 Frederick Cir · Chalco, NE 68138

$255,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,916 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1990 10,019 sqft lot Est $322k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Create equity with the single owner Stonybrook South gem nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in the highly desirable Millard area. Offering 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and over 1,900 square feet of living space, this home features a spacious layout, a partially finished basement, and a large lot with plenty of room to relax, entertain, or play. Built in 1990, the property combines comfort, functionality, and everyday convenience. Located within the Millard Public Schools district, with Norman Rockwell Elementary, Millard Central Middle School, and Millard South High School nearby. Enjoy easy access to I-80, making commutes across the Omaha metro quick and convenient. You'll also be minutes from shop

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-121 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (8.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.4% in Chalco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#46 in NE, #2,335 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Millard Public Schools (urban): math 58% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #13 of 111 in NE (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Norman Rockwell Elem School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #200 of 502 statewide, top 46%, 311 students, 48% FRL); Millard Central Middle School (math 39% / reading 41%, grade F, #84 of 128 statewide, top 65%, 825 students, 47% FRL); Millard South High School (math 51% / reading 54%, grade C-, #97 of 261 statewide, top 37%, 2,607 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 43% FRL vs 13% district-wide (30 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 71 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,612 units permitted in Sarpy County in 2024 (364 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarpy County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $208,041 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.03%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,888
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7214 S 140 Ave	0.10mi	3/3.0	2,003 (+4%)	7mo	$330,000	$165	78
13952 Frederick Cir	0.16mi	3/2.5	2,068 (+8%)	7mo	$360,000	$174	71
13711 Edna St	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,787 (-7%)	2mo	$325,000	$182	68
6512 S 139 Avenue Circle	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (-2%)	3mo	$335,000	$178	62
6610 S 139th St	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,002 (+4%)	6mo	$315,000	$157	62
14861 Polk St	0.54mi	3/2.5	1,759 (-8%)	1mo	$325,000	$185	58
14929 Polk St	0.66mi	3/2.5	2,044 (+7%)	1mo	$343,000	$168	56
7106 S 145th St	0.33mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,720 (-10%)	4mo	$236,000	$137	56
6373 S 140th Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-11%)	4mo	$245,000	$144	51
13524 Redwood St	0.56mi	3/1.5	1,705 (-11%)	6mo	$284,000	$167	48
13437 Redwood St	0.63mi	3/2.0	2,116 (+10%)	6mo	$315,000	$149	48
15010 Chandler Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,716 (-10%)	6mo	$410,000	$239	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.73% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-47,457
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,707
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68138

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,080 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,853/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-121

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,234

Max offer price $233,620

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-49	+0% $-121	+5% $-193	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-285	-5% $-203	+0% $-121	+5% $-39	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $7	-0.5pp $-56	base $-121	+0.5pp $-187	+1.0pp $-254

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7561 S 146th St Omaha, NE	3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$2,418	$2.34	3d	12	0.23mi
7106 S 145th St Omaha, NE	4.0	3.0	1720	$2,100	$1.22	15d	1	0.31mi
13616 Emiline Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	1.5	1296	$2,145	$1.66	4d	1	0.48mi
13530 Josephine St Omaha, NE	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,095	$1.45	15d	1	0.52mi
13906 Jennifer Rd Omaha, NE	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,200	$1.37	4d	1	0.98mi
14735 W Plz Omaha, NE	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1469	$1,680	$1.14	3d	12	0.98mi
8803 S 143rd St Omaha, NE	3.0	1.5	1300	$1,895	$1.46	3d	1	1.05mi
5716 S 136th St Omaha, NE	3.0	2.5	1949	$2,200	$1.13	4d	1	1.09mi
9002 David Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	3.0	1534	$1,950	$1.27	3d	1	1.19mi
5723 S 152nd Avenue Cir Omaha, NE	3.0	3.0	1866	$2,100	$1.13	44d	1	1.23mi
15735 Rosewood St Omaha, NE	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1073	$1,550	$1.44	3d	2	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-05
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-05
   listed $255,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,853 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,412 · $368/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 14.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$3,853
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,997
• − Management: −$1,997
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable loss: −$5,859
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,406
• After-tax cash flow: $-46/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Millard Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3173740
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $81,146
• Composite: 53.23/100
• National rank: #1500
• State rank: #13 of 111 in NE

Livability — Chalco

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #46
• US rank: #2335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chalco, NE
• County: Sarpy County · 161,202 people
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• Population (ZIP): 11,713
• Household income: $86,007
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Sarpy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 211,769 people
• By 2030: 229,365 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 264,122 · +24.7%
• By 2050: 298,087 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 381,667 · +80.2%
• By 2100: 448,180 · +111.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarpy

• 2024 margin: R (+11.7) · D 43.5% · R 55.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -15.9pp · 2024: -11.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.7 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+21.8 2012: R+23.6 2008: R+15.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.11%
• Current HPI: 250.0183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Metro: Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listing Removed — GPRMLS
• 2026-05-30 Listed $255,000 GPRMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,853 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.