22302 Red River Dr · Houston, TX 77450

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,643 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1976 7,200 sqft lot $152/sqft · 8% below area Est $270k · 8% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location! Location! Location! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath Southwest-facing home is located in the established Cimarron subdivision. The functional layout features a living area open to the dining space, offering a comfortable flow for everyday living. French doors with built-in blinds offer access to the back patio. The kitchen includes an updated tile backsplash, canister lights, and pantry storage cabinet perfect for storing small appliances. Kitchen dining windows are "easy-clean" double pane and installed in 2021 per seller. The owner’s suite features neutral gray paint. Secondary bath includes just installed white bead board wainscoting paneling. Per seller: Roof replaced 2022, Hot water heater replaced March 2025, and Attic insulation added 2023. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator included. Katy ISD schools. Conveniently located with easy access to major roads, shopping, and dining. Cimarron subdivision offers a community pool, park and tennis courts. Don’t miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Cimarron subdivision
• 7,200 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CIMARRON SUBDIVISION
• LIVING AREA OPEN TO DINING
• FRENCH DOORS WITH BLINDS
• UPDATED TILE BACKSPLASH
• PANTRY STORAGE CABINET
• EASY-CLEAN DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 385 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $249k implies a 349% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,217 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.68%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,874
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -7.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22531 Smokey Hill Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (+2%)	3mo	$289,000	$173	74
22315 Indian Ridge Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-9%)	2mo	$220,000	$147	69
834 Red Rock Canyon Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,496 (-9%)	1mo	$242,000	$162	67
22210 Woodrose Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,780 (+8%)	1mo	$329,900	$185	66
1115 Western Springs Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (+5%)	2mo	$200,000	$116	60
1106 Western Springs Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,787 (+9%)	0mo	$285,000	$159	60
1043 Sierra Shadows Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,564 (-5%)	1mo	$245,000	$157	58
510 Coppersmith Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,746 (+6%)	2mo	$235,000	$135	56
214 Buckeye Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,710 (+4%)	2mo	$270,000	$158	53
1206 Silver Morning Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,484 (-10%)	1mo	$305,995	$206	49
1035 Golden Nugget Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,436 (-13%)	1mo	$265,000	$185	47
1307 Grand Junction Dr	0.75mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,877 (+14%)	2mo	$200,000	$107	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,110
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -40.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-93,579
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77450

• Home prices YoY: -28.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 385
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,145 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$460 /mo · $5,521/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,416

Max offer price $211,217

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1046 Apache Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,400	$1.33	24d	1	0.35mi
423 Pickford Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,745	$1.15	13d	1	0.40mi
918 Cheyenne Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1802	$1,821	$1.01	22d	1	0.44mi
451 Gentilly Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1818	$1,875	$1.03	5d	1	0.50mi
21610 Park Wick Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2150	$2,150	$1.00	13d	1	0.83mi
21707 Park Bend Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	44d	1	0.90mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,978	$1.60	12d	1	0.96mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Unit 255 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,978	$1.60	44d	1	0.96mi
222 Mason Creek Dr Unit 3047 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,978	$1.60	11d	1	1.03mi
21550 Provincial Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,099	$2.05	3d	39	1.09mi
21542 Provincial Blvd Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,912	$1.46	44d	1	1.11mi
21430 Park Brook Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2248	$2,300	$1.02	19d	1	1.17mi
21540 Provincial Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,149	$2.04	1d	51	1.22mi
23400 Kingsland Blvd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,314	$2.18	3d	23	1.30mi
1226 W Grand Pkwy S Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,130	$1.52	3d	1	1.30mi
1226 W Grand Pkwy S Unit 1259 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,829	$1.33	44d	1	1.30mi
1226 W Grand Pkwy S Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,162	$1.54	10d	1	1.30mi
21455 Merchants Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1405	$2,137	$1.52	44d	1	1.31mi
2002 S Mason Rd Unit 3112 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,781	$1.42	3d	1	1.38mi
2002 S Mason Rd Unit 3174 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,813	$1.44	10d	1	1.38mi
23615 Western Centre Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,230	$2.20	2d	30	1.40mi
23414 W Fernhurst Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1352	$3,099	$2.29	2d	26	1.42mi
10 Cobia Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,275	$1.56	44d	1	1.44mi
1111 Falcon Park Dr Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1046	$2,279	$2.18	1d	21	1.46mi
2002 S Mason Rd Unit 2035 Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,930	$1.54	44d	1	1.46mi
21407 Highland Knolls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$1,721	$1.01	24d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $257,500 Active 53 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $257,500 Active 52 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $257,500 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $257,500 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $257,500 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $262,000 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath Southwest-facing home is located in the established Cimarron subdivision. The functional layout features a living area open to the dining space, offering a comfortable flow for everyday living. French doors with built-in blinds offer access to the back patio. The kitchen includes an updated tile backsplash, canister lights, and pantry storage cabinet perfect for storing small appliances. Kitchen dining windows are "easy-clean" double pane and installed in 2021 per seller. The owner’s suite features neutral gray paint. Secondary bath includes just installed white bead board wainscoting paneling. Per seller: Roof replaced 2022, Hot water heater replaced March 2025, and Attic insulation added 2023. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator included. Katy ISD schools. Conveniently located with easy access to major roads, shopping, and dining. Cimarron subdivision offers a community pool, park and tennis courts. Don’t miss this opportunity!

15. 2026-04-12
    listed $268,500 Active 1011-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1011 chars)

    Location! Location! Location! This 4-bedroom, 2-bath Southwest-facing home is located in the established Cimarron subdivision. The functional layout features a living area open to the dining space, offering a comfortable flow for everyday living. French doors with built-in blinds offer access to the back patio. The kitchen includes an updated tile backsplash, canister lights, and pantry storage cabinet perfect for storing small appliances. Kitchen dining windows are "easy-clean" double pane and installed in 2021 per seller. The owner’s suite features neutral gray paint. Secondary bath includes just installed white bead board wainscoting paneling. Per seller: Roof replaced 2022, Hot water heater replaced March 2025, and Attic insulation added 2023. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator included. Katy ISD schools. Conveniently located with easy access to major roads, shopping, and dining. Cimarron subdivision offers a community pool, park and tennis courts. Don’t miss this opportunity!

16. 1999-07-13
    soldstatus
17. 1998-07-27
    soldstatus
18. 1988-07-01
    soldstatus $55,450

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,521 · $460/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,521 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$5,521
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,059
• − Management: −$2,059
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$6,802
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,632
• After-tax cash flow: $-934/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,906
• Household income: $106,402
• Rent vs Own: 31.2% rent · 68.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2259.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 14% Asian 12% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 5% Chinese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.50%
• Current HPI: 244.792
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.13%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+372.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $262,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $268,500 HARMLS
• 1999-07-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-07-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,450 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,521 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.