1415 Birdsall St · Houston, TX 77007

$399,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,252 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2006 1,363 sqft lot $177/sqft · 24% below area Est $524k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1,363 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($750/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $396k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $394k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $393,507 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.67%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $524,372
• List price: $399,500
• Delta: -20.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1510 Birdsall St	0.06mi	3/3.5	2,268 (+1%)	1mo	$389,000	$172	93
1506 Birdsall St	0.07mi	3/3.5	2,124 (-6%)	1mo	$425,000	$200	85
5410A Nolda St	0.22mi	3/3.5	2,346 (+4%)	1mo	$669,900	$286	80
5307 Nett St Unit C	0.29mi	3/3.5	2,104 (-7%)	1mo	$399,900	$190	73
1628 Mcdonald St	0.30mi	3/3.5	2,420 (+8%)	0mo	$575,000	$238	71
5540 Nolda St	0.19mi	3/2.5	2,000 (-11%)	1mo	$400,000	$200	70
5310 Larkin St Unit B	0.47mi	3/3.5	2,354 (+4%)	1mo	$399,000	$169	68
1520 Malone St	0.11mi	3/4.0	2,557 (+14%)	1mo	$539,000	$211	67
5218A Rose St	0.46mi	3/3.5	2,380 (+6%)	0mo	$600,000	$252	67
802 Detering St	0.40mi	3/3.0	2,567 (+14%)	1mo	$645,000	$251	58
5336 Petty St Unit C	0.53mi	3/3.5	2,467 (+10%)	1mo	$449,000	$182	57
5719 Darling St	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+13%)	1mo	$490,000	$193	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-72,119
• Equity at exit: $59,567

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-101,540
• Equity at exit: $34,541

Cash invested: $111,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77007

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,962 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,095
• Tax from tax record: −$806 /mo · $9,672/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$832
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,883

Max offer price $399,500

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,875
• Closing costs: $11,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5811 Maxie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2226	$3,000	$1.35	44d	1	0.05mi
5610 Schuler St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2614	$3,111	$1.19	5d	1	0.12mi
920 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,306	$2.81	1d	29	0.26mi
5305 Nett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2104	$2,950	$1.40	24d	1	0.29mi
2103 Radcliffe St Unit 1225772P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,729	$2.63	8d	1	0.31mi
929 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1375	$9,263	$6.74	3d	22	0.34mi
5237 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2284	$2,995	$1.31	44d	1	0.37mi
2210 Radcliffe St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2066	$2,716	$1.31	8d	1	0.38mi
5336 Darling St Unit 1225767P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2292	$5,570	$2.43	8d	1	0.44mi
5620 Petty St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2891	$8,750	$3.03	44d	1	0.50mi
5620 Petty St Unit 1019538P Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2884	$16,259	$5.64	22d	1	0.50mi
5235 Petty St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2532	$3,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.52mi
5530 Kiam St Unit 1019540P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2680	$15,799	$5.90	44d	1	0.52mi
5530 Kiam St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2688	$9,750	$3.63	44d	1	0.52mi
5427 Kansas St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2156	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	0.53mi
4917 Nolda St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1764	$5,000	$2.83	24d	1	0.54mi
5732 Darling St Unit 1056419P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2400	$7,771	$3.24	44d	1	0.54mi
543 T C Jester Blvd Unit 1225766P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2389	$5,222	$2.19	16d	1	0.54mi
5108 Larkin St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2108	$2,850	$1.35	44d	1	0.56mi
4608 Nett St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2261	$3,750	$1.66	44d	1	0.75mi
100 Detering St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1162	$3,486	$3.00	3d	26	0.80mi
4508 Maxie St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1700	$3,003	$1.77	15d	1	0.80mi
4510 Inker St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2293	$4,500	$1.96	44d	1	0.82mi
4444 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2121	$3,200	$1.51	44d	1	0.87mi
5201 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$3,361	$3.14	2d	21	0.91mi
4311 Marina St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2328	$3,599	$1.55	44d	1	0.91mi
915 Thompson St Unit 915 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.98mi
913 Thompson St #913 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.99mi
917 Thompson St Unit 917 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,000	$2.50	24d	1	0.99mi
911 Thompson St #911 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.99mi
1221 Bonner St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2252	$3,200	$1.42	44d	1	1.02mi
3001 W 11th St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$4,533	$4.40	1d	50	1.20mi
707 Marston St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2310	$12,482	$5.40	3d	1	1.31mi
1027 Gross St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3035	$5,800	$1.91	44d	1	1.46mi
3333 Allen Pkwy Unit 1000 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1860	$4,500	$2.42	44d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,500 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,500 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,500 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,500 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $399,500 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $409,500 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $409,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $409,500 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $409,500 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $409,500 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $409,500 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-03-25
    price $419,500
13. 2026-02-26
    listed $429,500 Active
14. 2026-02-26
    historical
15. 2026-02-09
    price $439,500
16. 2026-01-19
    listed $449,500 Active
17. 2020-09-04
    soldstatus
18. 2020-08-28
    soldstatus Sold
19. 2020-07-27
    status Pending
20. 2020-07-17
    status Option Pending
21. 2020-06-04
    listed $349,990 Active
22. 2007-04-20
    historical
23. 2006-10-23
    listed $286,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,672 · $806/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,672 · $806/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,544
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,378
• − Property taxes: −$9,672
• − Insurance: −$1,998
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,804
• − Management: −$3,804
• − Depreciation: −$11,622
• Taxable loss: −$5,733
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,376
• After-tax cash flow: $2,126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,808
• Household income: $144,911
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 11% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.42%
• Current HPI: 159.8157
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+46.2% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $419,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $429,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $439,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $449,500 HARMLS
• 2020-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-08-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-07-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-07-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-06-04 Listed $349,990 HARMLS
• 2007-04-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2006-10-23 Listed $286,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,672 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.