159 Guadalupe Flores Rd · Sullivan City, TX 78595

$69,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,287 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 300 Days on market

Built 1978 8,580 sqft lot $54/sqft · 47% below area Est $129k · 47% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Excellent investment opportunity in Sullivan City! Property sits on a generous lot and features a durable metal roof only a few years old. Home requires TLC, making it ideal for investors or cash buyers looking for a value-add project. Great potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Seller is motivated and open to all offers—don’t miss this chance!

Key facts

• Durable metal roof
• Generous lot
• 8,580 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• GENEROUS LOT
• DURABLE METAL ROOF
• POTENTIAL FOR RENOVATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $61k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,369 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.9% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 300 days — a 12% lower offer ($61k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $60,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 300 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.42%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $129,438
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -46.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 Obregon Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,145 (-11%)	21mo	$69,000	$60	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $25,861
• Equity at exit: $30,596

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.50×
• Total profit: $67,675
• Equity at exit: $46,820

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78595

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,115 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,516/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $760

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $319	-5% $300	+0% $280	+5% $261	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $192	-5% $236	+0% $280	+5% $324	+10% $368
Rate	-1.0pp $315	-0.5pp $298	base $280	+0.5pp $263	+1.0pp $244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 300 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 299 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $69,000 Active 295 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 294 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $69,000 Active 292 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 291 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 290 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 289 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,000 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $69,000 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 284 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 283 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 282 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 281 DOM
17. 2026-02-26
    price $69,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity in Sullivan City! Property sits on a generous lot and features a durable metal roof only a few years old. Home requires TLC, making it ideal for investors or cash buyers looking for a value-add project. Great potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Seller is motivated and open to all offers—don’t miss this chance!

18. 2025-11-21
    price $75,000 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity in Sullivan City! Property sits on a generous lot and features a durable metal roof only a few years old. Home requires TLC, making it ideal for investors or cash buyers looking for a value-add project. Great potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Seller is motivated and open to all offers—don’t miss this chance!

19. 2025-08-22
    listed $89,900 Active 365-char remark

    Show marketing remark (365 chars)

    Excellent investment opportunity in Sullivan City! Property sits on a generous lot and features a durable metal roof only a few years old. Home requires TLC, making it ideal for investors or cash buyers looking for a value-add project. Great potential for renovation, rental, or resale. Seller is motivated and open to all offers—don’t miss this chance!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,516 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,516 · $210/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,377
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$2,516
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,070
• − Management: −$1,070
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$601
• After-tax cash flow: $2,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sullivan City

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1369
• US rank: #23526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sullivan City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 98% Two or more races 46%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 96%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 7% English-only · Spanish 93%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.89%
• Current HPI: 212.3717
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $69,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $75,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listed $89,900 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,516 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.