21 Dogwood Dr · Stony Brook, NY 11790

$699,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,147 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1933 0.35 ac lot $326/sqft · 20% below area Est $877k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +7.6/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is an original home built by John Archdeacon. Known for his beautifully constructed houses in the Three Villages. Located in Stony Brook, close to University and Stony Brook Village Shopping area. Its beautiful yard is well maintained and private. Across the street from a wooded preserve. Come see this lovely home to appreciate.

Key facts

• Well maintained yard
• Wooded preserve
• Close to university

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED YARD
• PRIVATE YARD
• WOODED PRESERVE
• CLOSE TO UNIVERSITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-896 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $541k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $471k (32.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $471k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.3% in Stony Brook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#29 in NY, #515 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Three Village Central School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 83% proficiency, ranked #31 of 590 in NY (top 5%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($171k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1933 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $471,029 (32.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1933 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.49%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $877,444
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -20.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17 Dogwood Dr	0.02mi	4/3.0	2,254 (+5%)	10mo	$785,000	$348	78
1234 N Country Rd	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,063 (-4%)	8mo	$1,290,000	$625	67
26 Lotowana Ln	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+2%)	12mo	$820,000	$373	62
21 Dairy Farm Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,938 (-10%)	12mo	$800,000	$413	60
11 Lotowana Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,281 (+6%)	12mo	$865,000	$379	55
7 Mill Pond Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-7%)	8mo	$958,000	$479	48
54 Aspen Ln	0.68mi	4/2.5	2,400 (+12%)	7mo	$867,500	$361	41
49 Hawkins Rd	0.60mi	4/3.0	1,876 (-13%)	10mo	$680,000	$362	39
9 Mill Pond Rd	0.65mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,028 (-6%)	21mo	$1,075,000	$530	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-170,380
• Equity at exit: $104,223

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-222,072
• Equity at exit: $60,437

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11790

• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 12.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,710 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$660 /mo · $7,920/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$989
• Net cashflow: $-896

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,844

Max offer price $540,759

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   This is an original home built by John Archdeacon. Known for his beautifully constructed houses in the Three Villages. Located in Stony Brook, close to University and Stony Brook Village Shopping area. Its beautiful yard is well maintained and private. Across the street from a wooded preserve. Come see this lovely home to appreciate.

2. 2026-04-21
   listed $699,000 Active 335-char remark

   Show marketing remark (335 chars)

   This is an original home built by John Archdeacon. Known for his beautifully constructed houses in the Three Villages. Located in Stony Brook, close to University and Stony Brook Village Shopping area. Its beautiful yard is well maintained and private. Across the street from a wooded preserve. Come see this lovely home to appreciate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,920 · $660/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,867 · $822/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,946/yr (+$162/mo · 24.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $56,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$7,920
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,522
• − Management: −$4,522
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$23,425
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,622
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Three Village Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3628200
• Math proficiency: 81% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 83% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $121,671
• Composite: 76.17/100
• National rank: #113
• State rank: #31 of 590 in NY

Livability — Stony Brook

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #515

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stony Brook, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,074
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 21,074
• Household income: $171,133
• Rent vs Own: 9.5% rent · 90.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 40.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Asian 25% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Chinese 13% Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -662.88%
• Current HPI: 284.601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $699,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,920 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.