427 Bucknor St · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$119,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1892 8,000 sqft lot $109/sqft · 13% below area Est $137k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 bedroom colonial on a great double deep 200' foot lot! Newly remodeled living room with recessed lighting, dining room, modern kitchen with all appliances leads to rear mudroom. Modern bathroom as well! 2 bedrooms upstairs branch out from a 2nd floor landing. The full basement has a man-cave with wet bar. Newer hot water tank, newer furnace as well with central air conditioning. Newer electric with 200 amp service! Fresh blacktop driveway, yard shed! Yard goes from one street all the back to the next street behind with frontage on both streets!

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1892
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-story building (1 story total); Resale property; Shake siding exterior; Asphalt roof; Rectangular residential lot, approx. 40 x 200; City street frontage
• Construction: Built (existing); Poured foundation
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Shed(s) / exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (Second level) — approx. 13 x 12; Bedroom 2 (Second level) — approx. 11 x 8; Additional room/other (First level) — approx. 9 x 9
• Flooring: Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning; Circuit breaker electrical panel
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Full basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $11 ($135/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $98k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $80k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1892 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $98,000 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1892 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.40%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,196
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -12.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21 E Benton St	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,040 (-6%)	3mo	$155,000	$149	79
406 Franklin Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,153 (+5%)	12mo	$128,900	$112	74
242 Lincoln Ave	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,122 (+2%)	18mo	$99,900	$89	68
10967 S Roberts Rd	0.39mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,104 (+0%)	11mo	$129,900	$118	65
283 Lincoln Ave	0.18mi	2/1.0	976 (-11%)	13mo	$125,000	$128	62
745 Grant Ave	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,107 (+1%)	6mo	$159,000	$144	59
17 E Benton St	0.08mi	2/1.0	936 (-15%)	15mo	$89,000	$95	59
228 King St	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,263 (+15%)	2mo	$145,000	$115	53
3847 Williams St	0.48mi	2/1.0	935 (-15%)	6mo	$35,000	$37	48
744 Grant Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,197 (+9%)	8mo	$159,000	$133	46
66 Kosciuszko Ave	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	970 (-12%)	15mo	$78,500	$81	39
3721 New Rd	0.62mi	2/1.0	936 (-15%)	9mo	$150,000	$160	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $27,853
• Equity at exit: $67,442

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.50×
• Total profit: $83,780
• Equity at exit: $115,982

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,011/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $966

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
70 Greco Ln Dunkirk, NY	2.0	1.0	1079	$980	$0.91	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 1185-char remark
2. 2026-05-11
   historical Active Under Contract 1185-char remark
3. 2026-05-06
   listed $119,900 Active 1185-char remark
4. 2021-09-17
   soldstatus $80,000 Closed Sale or Rented 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   2 bedroom colonial on a great double deep 200' foot lot! Newly remodeled living room with recessed lighting, dining room, modern kitchen with all appliances leads to rear mudroom. Modern bathroom as well! 2 bedrooms upstairs branch out from a 2nd floor landing. The full basement has a man-cave with wet bar. Newer hot water tank, newer furnace as well with central air conditioning. Newer electric with 200 amp service! Fresh blacktop driveway, yard shed! Yard goes from one street all the back to the next street behind with frontage on both streets!

5. 2021-06-12
   status Pending Sale 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   2 bedroom colonial on a great double deep 200' foot lot! Newly remodeled living room with recessed lighting, dining room, modern kitchen with all appliances leads to rear mudroom. Modern bathroom as well! 2 bedrooms upstairs branch out from a 2nd floor landing. The full basement has a man-cave with wet bar. Newer hot water tank, newer furnace as well with central air conditioning. Newer electric with 200 amp service! Fresh blacktop driveway, yard shed! Yard goes from one street all the back to the next street behind with frontage on both streets!

6. 2021-06-08
   listed $75,000 Active 552-char remark

   Show marketing remark (552 chars)

   2 bedroom colonial on a great double deep 200' foot lot! Newly remodeled living room with recessed lighting, dining room, modern kitchen with all appliances leads to rear mudroom. Modern bathroom as well! 2 bedrooms upstairs branch out from a 2nd floor landing. The full basement has a man-cave with wet bar. Newer hot water tank, newer furnace as well with central air conditioning. Newer electric with 200 amp service! Fresh blacktop driveway, yard shed! Yard goes from one street all the back to the next street behind with frontage on both streets!

7. 2015-02-03
   soldstatus $52,000

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   Adorable home w/ loft . . recent updates include :new oak kitchen. .. new Lenox furnace w/ humidifier. .new flooring and carpeting. .remodeled bathroom. .new 200 AMP electric service. .new porch. .some new drywall. .new copper waterlines. . newer roof. .nice home and nice neighborhood. .double lot. .shed. .very reasonable taxes!

8. 2015-02-03
   soldstatus $52,000

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   Adorable home w/ loft . . recent updates include :new oak kitchen. .. new Lenox furnace w/ humidifier. .new flooring and carpeting. .remodeled bathroom. .new 200 AMP electric service. .new porch. .some new drywall. .new copper waterlines. . newer roof. .nice home and nice neighborhood. .double lot. .shed. .very reasonable taxes!

9. 2015-02-03
   soldstatus $52,000

   Show marketing remark (330 chars)

   Adorable home w/ loft . . recent updates include :new oak kitchen. .. new Lenox furnace w/ humidifier. .new flooring and carpeting. .remodeled bathroom. .new 200 AMP electric service. .new porch. .some new drywall. .new copper waterlines. . newer roof. .nice home and nice neighborhood. .double lot. .shed. .very reasonable taxes!

10. 2014-04-25
    listed $55,000

    Show marketing remark (330 chars)

    Adorable home w/ loft . . recent updates include :new oak kitchen. .. new Lenox furnace w/ humidifier. .new flooring and carpeting. .remodeled bathroom. .new 200 AMP electric service. .new porch. .some new drywall. .new copper waterlines. . newer roof. .nice home and nice neighborhood. .double lot. .shed. .very reasonable taxes!

11. 2008-07-28
    soldstatus $36,000
12. 2008-07-01
    soldstatus $36,000
13. 2008-05-21
    listed $39,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,011 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,519 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$508/yr (+$42/mo · 50.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,760
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,011
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,936
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$465
• After-tax cash flow: $600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+200.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2021-09-17 Sold (MLS) $80,000 UNYREIS
• 2021-06-12 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2021-06-08 Listed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2015-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records
• 2015-02-03 Sold (MLS) $52,000 UNYREIS
• 2014-04-25 Listed $55,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-07-28 Sold (MLS) $36,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 2008-05-21 Listed $39,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,011 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.