7507 Arlo Dr · Amarillo, TX 79119

$301,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,675 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,188 sqft lot $3/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This thoughtfully designed, newly constructed 4-bedroom layout perfectly balances sophisticated design with everyday comfort. At the heart of the home, a bright and airy open-concept living area seamlessly connects your kitchen and dining spaces, making it the perfect backdrop for hosting family gatherings or relaxing after a long day. Retreat & Unwind The isolated primary suite serves as your private oasis, complete with a generous walk-in closet. Across the home, three additional versatile bedrooms offer plenty of space for family, guests, or a dedicated home office. Storage is never an issue here, as two of the secondary bedrooms also feature their own walk-in closets

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Energy efficiency
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• ISOLATED PRIMARY SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• ENERGY EFFICIENCY
• ADVANCED SPRAY FOAM INSULATION
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,675 (listed)
• HOA & community: Association fee of $40 (frequency not specified)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Electric service; Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family home (spec plan: Ohio); Active listing
• Exterior features: Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating and heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $302k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-110 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (5.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (17.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (17.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#624 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
• Canyon ISD (town): math 60% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #78 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hillside El (math 65% / reading 60%, grade B, #311 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 348 students, 33% FRL); Greenways Int (math 73% / reading 50%, grade B+, #141 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 619 students, 35% FRL); Randall H S (math 43% / reading 64%, grade C-, #428 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,148 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.2%/yr); 477 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 45 units permitted in Randall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randall County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($297k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $250,181 (17.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-47,493
• Equity at exit: $44,955

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-13,672
• Equity at exit: $26,068

Cash invested: $84,420 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79119

• Home prices YoY: -19.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 477
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,502 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,581
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,522/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$3
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-110

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,641

Max offer price $285,558

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $-6	+0% $-110	+5% $-214	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-308	-5% $-209	+0% $-110	+5% $-11	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $42	-0.5pp $-33	base $-110	+0.5pp $-188	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,375
• Closing costs: $9,045
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7602 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.04mi
7514 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.08mi
7516 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.08mi
7600 Beck Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.08mi
7615 Arlo Dr Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1702	$2,500	$1.47	23d	1	0.09mi
7506 John Thomas St Amarillo, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$3,200	$1.85	15d	1	0.14mi
7517 John Thomas St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1642	$2,400	$1.46	46d	1	0.17mi
7206 Nick St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1939	$2,200	$1.13	15d	1	0.62mi
7628 S Soncy Rd Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1105	$1,750	$1.58	15d	3	0.63mi
Mosley St Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,000	$1.22	45d	1	0.76mi
Time Sq Amarillo, TX	3.0	2.0	1898	$2,450	$1.29	23d	1	1.24mi
9181 Town Square Blvd #1241 Amarillo, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,678	$1.68	45d	25	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $3 · $36/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $301,500 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $301,500 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $301,500 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $301,500 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $301,500 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $301,500 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $301,500 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $301,500 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $301,500 Active 15 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $301,500 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $301,500 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $301,500 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $301,500 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $301,500 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $301,500 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $301,500 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $301,500 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,889
• − Property taxes: −$4,522
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,402
• − Management: −$2,402
• − HOA: −$36
• − Depreciation: −$8,771
• Taxable loss: −$6,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,562
• After-tax cash flow: $240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This newly constructed home offers a good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a good roof, exterior, and interior condition. The home has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements in exterior painting and landscaping.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canyon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812810
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $65,177
• Composite: 50.07/100
• National rank: #1912
• State rank: #78 of 826 in TX

Livability — Amarillo

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #624
• US rank: #11876

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Amarillo, TX
• County: Randall County · 137,351 people
• City population: 185,802
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,907
• Household income: $114,432
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 272.0

Population outlook (Randall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,140 people
• By 2030: 163,107 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 184,999 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 206,948 · +36.0%
• By 2075: 260,204 · +71.0%
• By 2100: 294,980 · +93.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.4) · D 19.4% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.3pp toward D · 2008: -62.7pp · 2024: -60.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.4 2020: R+58.8 2016: R+65.1 2012: R+68.2 2008: R+62.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.08%
• Current HPI: 165.3226
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.21%
• Metro: Amarillo, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B