2122 Peppertree Way #2 · Antioch, CA 94509

$155,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 903 sqft · Condo public records · 155 Days on market

Built 1969 $172/sqft · 18% below area Est $189k · 18% under $349/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2 Story condo, Bedrooms are upstairs, Kitchen with pantry, ceiling fan in dining area, newer plank floor in kitchen, 1 car garage carport with storage, laundry room in common area.

Key facts

• 2 story condo
• Kitchen with pantry
• $349 HOA

Tags

• 2 STORY CONDO
• KITCHEN WITH PANTRY
• CEILING FAN IN DINING AREA
• NEWER PLANK FLOOR IN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM IN COMMON AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 211 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.42%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,268
• List price: $155,000
• Delta: -18.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-16,284
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-12,508
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 211
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,622/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$349
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,829

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $284	-5% $240	+0% $196	+5% $152	+10% $108
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $114	+0% $196	+5% $278	+10% $360
Rate	-1.0pp $274	-0.5pp $236	base $196	+0.5pp $156	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2205 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$1,695	$1.88	16d	1	0.05mi
2106 Peppertree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	6d	1	0.05mi
2106 Peppertree Way #3 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	903	$2,311	$2.56	44d	1	0.05mi
2308 Lemontree Way #4 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	925	$1,695	$1.83	44d	1	0.08mi
2104 Lemontree Way Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	822	$1,695	$2.06	44d	1	0.08mi
1608 Sycamore Dr Apt 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,150	$2.39	6d	1	0.27mi
2725 Del Oro Cir Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	580	$1,795	$3.09	12d	1	0.37mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 18 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$2,800	$2.71	44d	1	0.38mi
1015 Fitzuren Rd Unit 2 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	1035	$2,500	$2.42	44d	1	0.38mi
2415 Horizon Ln #129 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	944	$2,800	$2.97	44d	1	0.42mi
619 W 17th St Unit C Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	560	$1,795	$3.21	23d	1	0.43mi
2201 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,922	$1.89	0d	10	0.44mi
2400 Horizon Ln #140 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	845	$1,850	$2.19	44d	1	0.46mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	755	$1,815	$2.40	11d	1	0.47mi
2200 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	777	$1,917	$2.47	3d	12	0.47mi
616 1/2 W 16th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	646	$1,950	$3.02	3d	1	0.49mi
616 1/2 W 16th St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	646	$1,950	$3.02	6d	1	0.49mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,850	$2.23	45d	1	0.53mi
2005 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.5–2.0	806	$2,054	$2.55	0d	2	0.53mi
400 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,850	$2.47	0d	1	0.54mi
400 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,850	$2.18	19d	1	0.54mi
2301 Sycamore Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	716	$2,180	$3.04	0d	23	0.55mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	44d	1	0.58mi
1461 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	25d	1	0.58mi
2005 San Jose Dr Unit F130 Antioch, CA	2.0	2.0	830	$1,795	$2.16	6d	1	0.58mi
370 Lawton St Unit Lawton-370B Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	950	$2,099	$2.21	44d	1	0.59mi
318 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,850	$2.85	45d	1	0.61mi
318 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	650	$1,850	$2.85	25d	1	0.61mi
2608 Nevada Ln Antioch, CA	3.0	1.5	1056	$2,450	$2.32	44d	1	0.62mi
314 Lawton St Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	637	$1,550	$2.43	16d	1	0.63mi
314 Lawton St #2 Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	637	$1,495	$2.35	6d	1	0.63mi
313 Lawton St Unit LAW-08 Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,895	$2.47	44d	1	0.63mi
313 Lawton St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,850	$2.41	25d	1	0.63mi
2500 Florida Ln Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,395	$2.40	44d	1	0.65mi
1600 Aster Dr Antioch, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,564	$3.06	0d	8	0.65mi
1017 H St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	825	$1,950	$2.36	25d	1	0.66mi
712 O St Antioch, CA	2.0	1.0	860	$1,822	$2.12	11d	1	0.68mi
2201 San Jose Dr Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	612	$1,658	$2.71	0d	2	0.68mi
807 G St Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	840	$1,590	$1.89	44d	1	0.79mi
412 W 10th St Antioch, CA	1.0	1.0	800	$1,695	$2.12	13d	1	0.80mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $349 · $4,188/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $155,000 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 152 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 151 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 150 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 149 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 147 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 146 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 143 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 142 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 141 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-01-17
    listed $155,000 Active 180-char remark

    Show marketing remark (180 chars)

    2 Story condo, Bedrooms are upstairs, Kitchen with pantry, ceiling fan in dining area, newer plank floor in kitchen, 1 car garage carport with storage, laundry room in common area.

17. 2024-05-22
    soldstatus $187,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Remodeled 2 story, Very nice 2 bed 1 bath starter home or investment property. Bedrooms are upstairs. Kitchen with a large pantry. Ceiling fan in dining. New plank flooring in the in kitchen and bathroom. New carpets, paint, blinds and bathroom vanity and more. This unit also has a 1 car garage/carport with storage and laundry room in the common area. Close to freeway and Bart. HOA includes water, garbage, sewer, security, common area maintenance, insurance and more. Ready to move in.

18. 2024-05-22
    soldstatus $187,000 Closed 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Remodeled 2 story, Very nice 2 bed 1 bath starter home or investment property. Bedrooms are upstairs. Kitchen with a large pantry. Ceiling fan in dining. New plank flooring in the in kitchen and bathroom. New carpets, paint, blinds and bathroom vanity and more. This unit also has a 1 car garage/carport with storage and laundry room in the common area. Close to freeway and Bart. HOA includes water, garbage, sewer, security, common area maintenance, insurance and more. Ready to move in.

19. 2024-05-21
    soldstatus $187,000
20. 2024-05-11
    status Pending 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Remodeled 2 story, Very nice 2 bed 1 bath starter home or investment property. Bedrooms are upstairs. Kitchen with a large pantry. Ceiling fan in dining. New plank flooring in the in kitchen and bathroom. New carpets, paint, blinds and bathroom vanity and more. This unit also has a 1 car garage/carport with storage and laundry room in the common area. Close to freeway and Bart. HOA includes water, garbage, sewer, security, common area maintenance, insurance and more. Ready to move in.

21. 2024-03-06
    price $195,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Remodeled 2 story, Very nice 2 bed 1 bath starter home or investment property. Bedrooms are upstairs. Kitchen with a large pantry. Ceiling fan in dining. New plank flooring in the in kitchen and bathroom. New carpets, paint, blinds and bathroom vanity and more. This unit also has a 1 car garage/carport with storage and laundry room in the common area. Close to freeway and Bart. HOA includes water, garbage, sewer, security, common area maintenance, insurance and more. Ready to move in.

22. 2023-11-26
    listed $195,000 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Remodeled 2 story, Very nice 2 bed 1 bath starter home or investment property. Bedrooms are upstairs. Kitchen with a large pantry. Ceiling fan in dining. New plank flooring in the in kitchen and bathroom. New carpets, paint, blinds and bathroom vanity and more. This unit also has a 1 car garage/carport with storage and laundry room in the common area. Close to freeway and Bart. HOA includes water, garbage, sewer, security, common area maintenance, insurance and more. Ready to move in.

23. 2023-11-26
    listed $198,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Remodeled 2 story, Very nice 2 bed 1 bath starter home or investment property. Bedrooms are upstairs. Kitchen with a large pantry. Ceiling fan in dining. New plank flooring in the in kitchen and bathroom. New carpets, paint, blinds and bathroom vanity and more. This unit also has a 1 car garage/carport with storage and laundry room in the common area. Close to freeway and Bart. HOA includes water, garbage, sewer, security, common area maintenance, insurance and more. Ready to move in.

24. 2011-03-24
    soldstatus $33,500 Sold
25. 2011-03-24
    soldstatus $33,500
26. 2011-03-16
    status Pending
27. 2011-02-24
    price $34,500 Price Change
28. 2011-02-10
    listed $36,500 New
29. 1991-01-09
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,622 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,622 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,927
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,622
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − HOA: −$4,188
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$39
• After-tax cash flow: $2,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+189.7% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-17 Listed $155,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-05-22 Sold (MLS) $187,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-05-22 Sold (MLS) $187,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $187,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-11 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $195,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-11-26 Listed $198,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2023-11-26 Listed $195,000 San Francisco MLS
• 2011-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records
• 2011-03-24 Sold (MLS) $33,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-03-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-02-24 Price Changed $34,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2011-02-10 Listed $36,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1991-01-09 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,622 · +162.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.