13096 Blackbird #164 · Garden Grove, CA 92843

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 799 sqft · Manufactured · 291 Days on market

Built 2020 $238/sqft · 43% above area Est $133k · 43% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Land rent ONLY 1200 per month. Nearly brand new architectural manufactured home. Just under 800 square feet. Great family location . 2 bed, 1 bath. Optional 3rd bedroom. Open floor plan. Spacious master bedroom. Large open living room. Elegant dining room. Light and bright. Brand new laminate wood floor. Brand new natural stone Quartzite counters. Brand new interior paint. Brand new windows. Great , safe Garden Grove location. Wonderful clubhouse, pool, and playground for the family to enjoy.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Clubhouse
• Pool

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• BRAND NEW LAMINATE WOOD FLOOR
• CLUBHOUSE
• POOL
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $939 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 1.8% in Garden Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#343 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Garden Grove Unified (suburban): math 38% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #132 of 517 in CA (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 291 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $91k; list at $190k implies a 109% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 291 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.01%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,935
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: 42.85%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13096 Blackbird #5	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	792 (-1%)	11mo	$200,000	$253	83
13061 Fairview St #35	0.48mi	2/2.0 (-1)	795 (-0%)	16mo	$200,000	$252	54
13061 Fairview St #22	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	895 (+12%)	4mo	$242,301	$271	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $29,014
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $102,266
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92843

• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $643/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$583
• Net cashflow: $939

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,587

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,046	-5% $992	+0% $939	+5% $885	+10% $831
Rent	-10% $719	-5% $829	+0% $939	+5% $1,048	+10% $1,158
Rate	-1.0pp $1,034	-0.5pp $987	base $939	+0.5pp $889	+1.0pp $839

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12777 Garden Grove Blvd Garden Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	731	$2,470	$3.38	8d	3	0.26mi
12842 Palm St #6 Garden Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	864	$2,400	$2.78	25d	1	0.32mi
12562 Cardinal Ave Unit B Garden Grove, CA	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	45d	1	0.48mi
13100 Garden Grove Blvd Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	902	$2,700	$2.99	45d	1	0.50mi
12602 Citruswood Ave Garden Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$6,000	$6.00	0d	1	0.71mi
11782 Garden Grove Blvd Unit C Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,550	$3.00	45d	1	0.81mi
11655 Trask Ave Unit 3 Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,750	$2.89	45d	1	0.82mi
11655 Trask Ave Unit 6 Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,800	$2.95	45d	1	0.82mi
13061 Lampson Ave Garden Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	847	$2,550	$3.01	11d	2	0.87mi
13032 Newhope St Unit B Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,400	$2.82	45d	1	0.92mi
3630 Westminster Ave Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	997	$2,758	$2.77	45d	1	0.96mi
12681 Lewis St Garden Grove, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$2,722	$3.51	2d	1	1.00mi
12621 Lewis St Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	960	$2,600	$2.71	8d	1	1.01mi
1500 N Harbor Blvd Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$2,575	$3.30	16d	1	1.09mi
3825 W Garden Grove Blvd Orange, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1112	$2,845	$2.56	3d	3	1.10mi
12664 Chapman Ave Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	1060	$2,950	$2.78	25d	1	1.10mi
1314 N Harbor Blvd Santa Ana, CA	2.0	2.0	884	$2,742	$3.10	14d	4	1.14mi
2111 W 17th St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	756	$2,880	$3.81	0d	7	1.15mi
12162 Jentges Ave Garden Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	908	$2,620	$2.89	13d	2	1.16mi
1610 N King St Santa Ana, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	808	$2,400	$2.97	45d	1	1.17mi
12132 Chapman Ave Garden Grove, CA	2.0	1.5	908	$2,445	$2.69	18d	1	1.22mi
13181 Balboa Ave Garden Grove, CA	3.0	2.0	1000	$3,295	$3.29	45d	1	1.27mi
12575 9th St Garden Grove, CA	2.0	2.0	925	$2,802	$3.03	0d	2	1.29mi
200 City Blvd W Orange, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	897	$3,272	$3.65	0d	14	1.37mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 291 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 288 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,900 Active 274 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 273 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 272 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 271 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 270 DOM
16. 2025-11-04
    price $189,900 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Land rent ONLY 1200 per month. Nearly brand new architectural manufactured home. Just under 800 square feet. Great family location . 2 bed, 1 bath. Optional 3rd bedroom. Open floor plan. Spacious master bedroom. Large open living room. Elegant dining room. Light and bright. Brand new laminate wood floor. Brand new natural stone Quartzite counters. Brand new interior paint. Brand new windows. Great , safe Garden Grove location. Wonderful clubhouse, pool, and playground for the family to enjoy.

17. 2025-09-03
    listed $199,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Land rent ONLY 1200 per month. Nearly brand new architectural manufactured home. Just under 800 square feet. Great family location . 2 bed, 1 bath. Optional 3rd bedroom. Open floor plan. Spacious master bedroom. Large open living room. Elegant dining room. Light and bright. Brand new laminate wood floor. Brand new natural stone Quartzite counters. Brand new interior paint. Brand new windows. Great , safe Garden Grove location. Wonderful clubhouse, pool, and playground for the family to enjoy.

18. 2021-01-07
    soldstatus $91,000 Closed Sale 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Bahia Mobile Villa #164 ~ Brand new 2020 Fleetwood Manufactured Home Ready for a fast move- in or quick escrow. Beautiful 2 bedroom 1 bath with large open kitchen in Garden grove all-age community. Own you own dream home near shopping, schools and Hospitals. Washer dryer hook up, New refrigerator, stove and disposal. Very affordable housing in low space rent park with swimming pool, Clubhouse, playground, BBQ and picnic area.

19. 2020-11-17
    status Pending Sale 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Bahia Mobile Villa #164 ~ Brand new 2020 Fleetwood Manufactured Home Ready for a fast move- in or quick escrow. Beautiful 2 bedroom 1 bath with large open kitchen in Garden grove all-age community. Own you own dream home near shopping, schools and Hospitals. Washer dryer hook up, New refrigerator, stove and disposal. Very affordable housing in low space rent park with swimming pool, Clubhouse, playground, BBQ and picnic area.

20. 2020-06-24
    price $105,000 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Bahia Mobile Villa #164 ~ Brand new 2020 Fleetwood Manufactured Home Ready for a fast move- in or quick escrow. Beautiful 2 bedroom 1 bath with large open kitchen in Garden grove all-age community. Own you own dream home near shopping, schools and Hospitals. Washer dryer hook up, New refrigerator, stove and disposal. Very affordable housing in low space rent park with swimming pool, Clubhouse, playground, BBQ and picnic area.

21. 2020-02-10
    listed $95,000 Active 431-char remark

    Show marketing remark (431 chars)

    Bahia Mobile Villa #164 ~ Brand new 2020 Fleetwood Manufactured Home Ready for a fast move- in or quick escrow. Beautiful 2 bedroom 1 bath with large open kitchen in Garden grove all-age community. Own you own dream home near shopping, schools and Hospitals. Washer dryer hook up, New refrigerator, stove and disposal. Very affordable housing in low space rent park with swimming pool, Clubhouse, playground, BBQ and picnic area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $643 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,443 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$801/yr (+$67/mo · 124.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone A · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,301
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$643
• − Insurance: −$2,452
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,664
• − Management: −$2,664
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $8,717
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,092
• After-tax cash flow: $9,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Garden Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614880
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,089
• Composite: 44.89/100
• National rank: #2715
• State rank: #132 of 517 in CA

Livability — Garden Grove

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #11727

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Garden Grove, CA
• County: Orange County · 3,096,323 people
• City population: 157,355
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,414
• Household income: $81,446
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1814.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,477,456 people
• By 2030: 3,613,117 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 3,835,945 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 3,968,736 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 4,097,053 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 3,903,633 · +12.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% Asian 44% Two or more races 15% White 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Foreign-born: 53% · Vietnam, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 20% English-only · Spanish 39% Vietnamese 36% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.7% · R 47.1% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.2pp toward D · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+9.0 2016: D+7.7 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -826.28%
• Current HPI: 496.9803
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+99.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $189,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-03 Listed $199,000 CRMLS
• 2021-01-07 Sold (MLS) $91,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-06-24 Price Changed $105,000 CRMLS
• 2020-02-10 Listed $95,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+15.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $643 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.