29 Squiretown Rd Unit D · Hampton Bays, NY 11946

$995,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1994 0.49 ac lot $715/sqft · at area comps Est $969k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming ranch home nestled in the serene enclave of Hampton Bays, NY. This exquisite two-bedroom, two-bathroom ranch-style home offers a unique blend of comfort and modern living, perfectly positioned adjacent to the tranquil woodlands of Good Ground Park. As you approach this hidden gem, you'll appreciate the privacy afforded by its secluded location. The home is equipped with solar panels, ready for connection to PSEG, providing an eco-friendly energy solution. Step inside to discover a spacious Great Room, featuring a large fireplace that serves as the heart of the home, ideal for cozy gatherings. The adjoining dining area and expansive kitchen, complete with a new gas cooktop, offer a

Key facts

• New saltwater system
• Gunite pool
• Pool house

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• GUNITE POOL
• POOL HOUSE
• NEW SALTWATER SYSTEM
• MATURE LANDSCAPING
• OVERSIZED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Planned development community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Garage (1 space); Total parking for 5 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Planned development; Updated/remodeled condition
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Pergola; Private in-ground salt water pool; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Gas cooktop; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Combination flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Beamed ceilings; Cathedral ceilings; Dining area; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included (laundry: Other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $995k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $975k (2.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $774k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $774k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#551 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hampton Bays Union Free School District (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #434 of 590 in NY (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hampton Bays Elementary School (math 32% / reading 52%, grade F, #1,361 of 2,108 statewide, top 67%, 682 students, 55% FRL); Hampton Bays Middle School (math 25% / reading 38%, grade F, #522 of 729 statewide, top 73%, 597 students, 64% FRL); Hampton Bays High School (math 98% / reading 57%, grade A-, #580 of 1,100 statewide, top 53%, 769 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 38% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+16.1%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $7,736/mo this rent would consume 69% of the median local household income ($134k/yr) (locally 199% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $30k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $460k; list at $995k implies a 116% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $773,608 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.49%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $968,845
• List price: $995,000
• Delta: 18.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Squiretown Rd	0.15mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,266 (-9%)	7mo	$910,000	$719	62
65 Old Riverhead Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,592 (+14%)	16mo	$790,000	$496	47
98 Squiretown Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+8%)	1mo	$998,000	$665	46
8 Jackson Ave	0.70mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,500 (+8%)	8mo	$875,000	$583	36
80 Washington Heights Ave	0.71mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,271 (-9%)	4mo	$969,000	$762	36
16 Gateway Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,277 (-8%)	22mo	$239,990	$188	35
6 Nassau Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,526 (+10%)	14mo	$790,000	$518	31
34 Wards Path	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,594 (+14%)	14mo	$1,025,000	$643	31
10 Bittersweet Ave S	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,228 (-12%)	14mo	$927,500	$755	25
1 The Cres	0.72mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-14%)	19mo	$850,000	$708	22
6 Bittersweet Ave	0.71mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,600 (+15%)	24mo	$925,000	$578	9

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-127,828
• Equity at exit: $148,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $64,350
• Equity at exit: $86,029

Cash invested: $278,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11946

• Home prices YoY: -20.3%
• Rents YoY: 16.1%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $7,736 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,218
• Tax from tax record: −$592 /mo · $7,104/yr
• Insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,625
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,879

Max offer price $975,045

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $450	-5% $169	+0% $-113	+5% $-395	+10% $-676
Rent	-10% $-724	-5% $-419	+0% $-113	+5% $193	+10% $498
Rate	-1.0pp $388	-0.5pp $140	base $-113	+0.5pp $-371	+1.0pp $-633

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $248,750
• Closing costs: $29,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5 Ardmore Ct Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1800	$28,000	$15.56	21d	1	0.39mi
18 Old Riverhead Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1056	$13,500	$12.78	26d	1	0.58mi
3 Debbie Trl Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1375	$5,500	$4.00	23d	1	0.66mi
20A Columbine Ave N Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1073	$10,000	$9.32	17d	1	0.78mi
43B Old Squires Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$8,000	$6.67	17d	1	0.80mi
18 Maryland Blvd Unit 1429741P Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1732	$7,475	$4.32	1d	1	0.85mi
37 Maryland Blvd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1640	$20,000	$12.20	46d	1	1.02mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	46d	1	1.04mi
58 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1600	$10,000	$6.25	46d	1	1.07mi
71 Hampton Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	1500	$18,000	$12.00	26d	1	1.13mi
111 Fanning Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1474	$20,000	$13.57	7d	1	1.15mi
6 Long Ln Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	2.0	1163	$40,000	$34.39	26d	1	1.27mi
28 Bay Ave W Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.5	945	$66,000	$69.84	46d	1	1.28mi
40 Kyle Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1320	$5,000	$3.79	46d	1	1.33mi
60 Lynncliff Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1536	$27,000	$17.58	46d	1	1.35mi
121 Ponquogue Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	3.0	1316	$27,000	$20.52	26d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $995,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $995,000 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $995,000 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $995,000 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $995,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $995,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $995,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $995,000 Active 1 DOM
9. 2026-05-09
   historical
10. 2026-03-09
    listed $1,150,000 Active
11. 2025-12-16
    historical
12. 2025-10-06
    price $1,250,000
13. 2025-09-15
    listed $1,395,000 Active
14. 2005-01-08
    soldstatus $460,000
15. 2003-12-05
    soldstatus $360,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,104 · $592/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $11,960 · $997/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,856/yr (+$405/mo · 68.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $92,833
• − Mortgage interest: −$55,735
• − Property taxes: −$7,104
• − Insurance: −$4,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$7,427
• − Management: −$7,427
• − Depreciation: −$28,945
• Taxable loss: −$18,780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,507
• After-tax cash flow: $3,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hampton Bays Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3613530
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $70,274
• Composite: 40.18/100
• National rank: #3788
• State rank: #434 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hampton Bays

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #551
• US rank: #9894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hampton Bays, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 15,819
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,819
• Household income: $133,918
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 199.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 13% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 29% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 467.2466
• Rent YoY: ▲ 16.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+176.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $995,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-09 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-09 Listed $1,150,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-16 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $1,250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Listed $1,395,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-01-08 Sold (Public Records) $460,000 Public Records
• 2003-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $360,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,104 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.