2126 Black Oak Ln · Conley, GA 30294

$294,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,153 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2005 6,098 sqft lot $137/sqft · 10% below area Est $325k · 10% under $24/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A must-see listing in Grant Forest Phase 2, Close to shopping, and area schools. nice back yard with cement slap for outdoor grilling, Kitchen open to very large family room. Separate dining room area. Lastly, quick access to interstate.

Key facts

• Back yard
• Large family room
• Outdoor grilling

Tags

• BACK YARD
• CEMENT SLAB
• OUTDOOR GRILLING
• LARGE FAMILY ROOM
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• QUICK ACCESS TO INTERSTATE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road surface: Asphalt; Road frontage: City street; Directions: GPS; County: Dekalb - GA
• HOA & community: Community association with an annual fee of $285; Community features: Other

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service available; Cable available
• Home design: Two levels; Resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built with resale construction materials
• Exterior features: Front porch; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Cabinets; Non-standard surface counters; Pantry; Dishwasher; Electric oven
• Bedrooms: Oversized master; Four upper-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom; Master bath with double vanity and separate tub/shower
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Entrance foyer; Walk-in closets; Factory-built fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $294k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (19.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#299 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dekalb County (suburban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #125 of 174 in GA (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Cedar Grove Elementary School (math 15% / reading 24%, grade F, #873 of 1,228 statewide, top 71%, 565 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove Middle School (math 2% / reading 17%, grade F, #433 of 470 statewide, top 93%, 777 students, 100% FRL); Cedar Grove High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,123 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 68% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 254 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,240 units permitted in DeKalb County in 2024 (385 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeKalb County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($285k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $132k; list at $294k implies a 123% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,592 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $325,411
• List price: $294,000
• Delta: -9.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2114 Black Oak Ln	0.02mi	4/2.5	2,258 (+5%)	11mo	$292,500	$130	82
2153 Pine View Trl	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,258 (+5%)	8mo	$275,000	$122	80
4376 Grant Forest Cir	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,990 (-8%)	11mo	$295,000	$148	70
4111 Village Crossing Cir	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,120 (-2%)	5mo	$339,000	$160	69
2243 Pine View Trl	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,438 (+13%)	7mo	$320,000	$131	68
2309 Pine View Trl	0.12mi	5/3.0 (+1)	1,967 (-9%)	7mo	$260,000	$132	67
3891 Village Crossing Ln	0.43mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+10%)	5mo	$339,000	$143	59
2680 Lower Village Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,374 (+10%)	10mo	$352,000	$148	58
2535 Brookgate Xing	0.47mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,252 (+5%)	9mo	$284,000	$126	56
3943 Brookgate Ct	0.61mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,402 (+12%)	10mo	$300,000	$125	40
4425 Boulder Springs Cv	0.59mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,442 (+13%)	5mo	$278,999	$114	39
4246 Cedar Lake Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,454 (+14%)	4mo	$293,000	$119	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-49,864
• Equity at exit: $43,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-35,183
• Equity at exit: $25,420

Cash invested: $82,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 254
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,542
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,298/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$24
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,485

Max offer price $277,391

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $-11	+0% $-94	+5% $-177	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-281	-5% $-187	+0% $-94	+5% $-1	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $54	-0.5pp $-19	base $-94	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,500
• Closing costs: $8,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2135 Pine View Trl Ellenwood, GA	5.0	3.0	2282	$2,300	$1.01	7d	1	0.10mi
2274 Silver Maple Cir Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1673	$2,000	$1.20	26d	1	0.10mi
4197 Grant Forest Cir Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2208	$2,300	$1.04	45d	1	0.12mi
2010 Redwood Trce Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	2036	$2,079	$1.02	24d	1	0.22mi
4265 Loveless Pl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,715	$1.20	24d	1	0.41mi
2532 Brookgate Xing Ellenwood, GA	5.0	2.0	1438	$1,995	$1.39	7d	1	0.46mi
2503 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1924	$2,215	$1.15	22d	1	0.48mi
3912 Old Ivy Ct Ellenwood, GA	3.0	1.5	1718	$2,000	$1.16	45d	1	0.59mi
2334 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	5.0	2.5	2318	$2,245	$0.97	7d	1	0.59mi
2141 Silva Ct Conley, GA	4.0	2.5	2097	$2,180	$1.04	26d	1	0.60mi
2340 Brookgate Way Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,024	$1.05	22d	1	0.60mi
1793 Cedar Walk Ln Conley, GA	3.0	2.0	2143	$1,950	$0.91	45d	1	0.61mi
4149 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	3.0	2300	$1,975	$0.86	7d	1	0.79mi
4284 Cedar Lake Cv Conley, GA	5.0	3.0	2656	$3,000	$1.13	14d	1	0.81mi
3679 Bouldercrest Rd Ellenwood, GA	3.0	3.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	45d	1	0.84mi
4095 Gracewood Park Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	2394	$2,389	$1.00	24d	1	0.85mi
3691 Connor Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	3.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	45d	1	0.86mi
2016 Smithfield Ave Ellenwood, GA	5.0	3.0	2880	$2,670	$0.93	1d	1	0.89mi
3981 Ivy Trace Ln Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,184	$1.36	26d	1	1.01mi
4153 Ward Lake Trl Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,930	$1.32	45d	1	1.27mi
4136 Moore Rd Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	1888	$1,981	$1.05	45d	1	1.30mi
2882 Ward Lake Way Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	1685	$1,676	$0.99	45d	1	1.36mi
2327 Tolliver Pl Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.5	1688	$2,111	$1.25	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $24 · $288/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $294,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $294,000 Active 237-char remark
16. 2024-10-02
    historical
17. 2024-10-02
    historical
18. 2024-09-16
    historical
19. 2024-09-16
    listed $305,000
20. 2016-11-07
    soldstatus $132,000
21. 2016-10-31
    soldstatus $132,000 Sold
22. 2016-10-27
    soldstatus $132,000 Sold
23. 2016-09-09
    status Under Contract
24. 2016-09-09
    status Pending Offer Approval
25. 2016-08-22
    listed $130,000 New
26. 2016-08-21
    listed $130,000 Active
27. 2009-08-17
    soldstatus $80,000
28. 2009-07-24
    listed $74,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,298 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,298 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,391
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,469
• − Property taxes: −$3,298
• − Insurance: −$1,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − HOA: −$288
• − Depreciation: −$8,553
• Taxable loss: −$6,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $367/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dekalb County
• NCES district ID: 1301740
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $51,448
• Composite: 20.92/100
• National rank: #8482
• State rank: #125 of 174 in GA

Livability — Conley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #16248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 8,116
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (DeKalb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 839,977 people
• By 2030: 891,768 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 988,894 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 1,074,583 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 1,245,026 · +48.2%
• By 2100: 1,303,135 · +55.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeKalb

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 81.9% · R 17.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.1pp toward D · 2008: 58.6pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+67.4 2016: D+64.8 2012: D+56.8 2008: D+58.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+292.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $294,000 FMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-10-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-09-16 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listed $305,000 GAMLS
• 2016-11-07 Sold (Public Records) $132,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-31 Sold (MLS) $132,000 GAMLS
• 2016-10-27 Sold (MLS) $132,000 FMLS
• 2016-09-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2016-09-09 Pending — FMLS
• 2016-08-22 Listed $130,000 GAMLS
• 2016-08-21 Listed $130,000 FMLS
• 2009-08-17 Sold (MLS) $80,000 FMLS
• 2009-07-24 Listed $74,900 FMLS

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,298 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.