The Coleman Plan · Cleveland, TN 37323

$299,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,053 sqft · SingleFamily · 149 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Coleman greets you with a covered front porch entry that opens to a welcoming dining room, or study if you prefer. Expansive sight lines across the back of the home connect the family room, breakfast nook, and kitchen with an optional center island. Upstairs you'll find four bedrooms including an owner's suite with a large walk-in closet, a secondary bathroom with compartmentalized space that allows for multiple people to use it at the same time, and a convenient, central laundry room.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Breakfast nook
• Kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• DINING ROOM
• FAMILY ROOM
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $299,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $318,002.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-161 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $295k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.6% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#55 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Cleveland (urban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #85 of 139 in TN (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Park View Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #231 of 952 statewide, top 26%, 463 students, 0% FRL); Ocoee Middle School (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #81 of 333 statewide, top 26%, 997 students, 0% FRL); Walker Valley High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #28 of 332 statewide, top 9%, 1,498 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 53% district-wide (53 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 476 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 768 units permitted in Bradley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bradley County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,800 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,002
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -2.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4006 Wendell Rd NE	0.62mi	4/2.5	1,991 (-3%)	8mo	$300,000	$151	59
3902 Billie Ln NE	0.42mi	4/2.5	1,821 (-11%)	10mo	$286,000	$157	53
4012 Wendell Rd NE	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (+5%)	6mo	$275,000	$127	53
4167 Hines Ln NE	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,821 (-11%)	10mo	$300,730	$165	52
4150 Hines Ln NE	0.47mi	4/2.5	1,821 (-11%)	9mo	$300,730	$165	51
2248 Chelle Drive Dr NE	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,164 (+5%)	1mo	$348,495	$161	51
3015 NE 20th St	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,148 (+5%)	4mo	$275,000	$128	49
2224 Chelle Dr Dr NE	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-14%)	2mo	$337,975	$192	41
2205 Chelle Dr Dr NE	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-14%)	2mo	$325,000	$184	41
2236 Chelle Dr Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,774 (-14%)	2mo	$352,475	$199	41
2223 Chelle Dr Dr NE	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-14%)	1mo	$344,380	$195	41
2229 Chelle Dr Dr NE	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,764 (-14%)	1mo	$343,910	$195	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-61,746
• Equity at exit: $47,415

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-66,815
• Equity at exit: $27,495

Cash invested: $89,041 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 40 active · 23 under contract
• Months of supply: 10.0 mo (10%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $334,995 ($163/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 5% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -4.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 37323

• Home prices YoY: -23.5%
• Active inventory: 476
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,578 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$398 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,782

Max offer price $294,702

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $59	-5% $-51	+0% $-161	+5% $-271	+10% $-381
Rent	-10% $-365	-5% $-263	+0% $-161	+5% $-59	+10% $43
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-80	base $-161	+0.5pp $-243	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,500
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4033 Billie Ln NE Cleveland, TN	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,670	$0.95	92d	1	0.54mi
3221 Rolling Meadow Way Cleveland, TN	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,525	$1.43	92d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 149 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 148 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $310,900 Active 147 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $310,900 Active 146 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $310,900 Active 145 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $310,900 Active 144 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $310,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-07-29
   days on market $310,900 Active 139 DOM
9. 2026-07-27
   days on market $310,900 Active 137 DOM
10. 2026-07-25
    days on market $310,900 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $310,900 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $310,900 Active 133 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $310,900 Active 132 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $310,900 Active 131 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $310,900 Active 128 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $310,900 Active 126 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $310,900 Active 125 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $310,900 Active 124 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $310,900 Active 123 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $310,900 Active 122 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $310,900 Active 121 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $310,900 Active 120 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $310,900 Active 119 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $310,900 Active 118 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $310,900 Active 117 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $310,900 Active 116 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $310,900 Active 115 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $310,900 Active 114 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $310,900 Active 113 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $310,900 Active 112 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $310,900 Active 111 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $310,900 Active 110 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $310,900 Active 109 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $310,900 Active 108 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $310,900 Active 107 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $310,900 Active 106 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $310,900 Active 105 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $310,900 Active 102 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $310,900 Active 101 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $310,900 Active 99 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $310,900 Active 98 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $310,900 Active 97 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $310,900 Active 96 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $310,900 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $310,900 Active 93 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $310,900 Active 92 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $310,900 Active 90 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $310,900 Active 89 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $310,900 Active 88 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $310,900 Active 87 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,936
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,813
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,475
• − Management: −$2,475
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$7,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,785
• After-tax cash flow: $-147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and offers high ROI with updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 21/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Mayfield Elementary F TN #654/952 Nat'l #33,738/41,679 Middle Cleveland Middle F TN #147/333 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Cleveland High F TN #208/332 Nat'l #14,713/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland
• NCES district ID: 4700690
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $37,612
• Composite: 21.28/100
• National rank: #8394
• State rank: #85 of 139 in TN

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #55
• US rank: #7689

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TN
• County: Bradley County · 114,901 people
• City population: 99,337
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• Population (ZIP): 31,948
• Household income: $68,768
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Bradley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,901 people
• By 2030: 120,137 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 130,125 · +13.2%
• By 2050: 139,257 · +21.2%
• By 2075: 161,664 · +40.7%
• By 2100: 179,767 · +56.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Bradley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.0% · R 78.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -49.7pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+55.3 2016: R+59.1 2012: R+53.9 2008: R+49.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.38%
• Current HPI: 287.3643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $310,900 Zillow